“涨跌家数”比大盘指数更能反映行情 | 胡立阳
投资人问:
有些指数成份股由于股本庞大,经过加权之后,它们的一举一动都会强烈左右行情。我的朋友们一致认为,每天只要盯着这少数几只重量级的个股看就够了,反正其他的小型股对大盘走势而言根本是无足轻重?
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为了准确预测行情,对我而言,股市中每一只股票,不分大小,其实都扮演着相同重要的角色。
股市中,每天的“涨跌家数”往往比大盘指数更能反映股市走势。在涨势中,上涨家数比下跌家数多一倍,表示股市看好;上涨家数与下跌家数之比小于1.25,股市可能转疲。
大盘指数有时候会因为采样与加权因素的关系,使得其涨跌不能充分反映股市整体气势的强弱,甚至出现误导。如果配合着全面“涨跌家数”的观察,可以获得更精确的方向。
投资人每天都能由电脑资料得知,今日上涨、下跌的公司有几家,而不变的又有几家,然后比较上涨和下跌总家数。在涨势中,如果上涨总家数能保持多于下跌家数的50%(即两者之比为1.5:1)以上,表示股市仍然看好,当然,这个比率是越大越好。
反之,如果上涨家数与下跌家数之比连续几天低于1.25,这是股市可能转疲的先兆,须留意股市随时可能变盘。
另外一种情况是,如果行情一路萎靡不振,但每日上涨家数默默增多,而与下跌家数之比已超过1.25以上,只要连续3天,也是股市即将反弹的先期讯号。
Singapore Investment
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