CCB (3) - 能否再创佳绩？
i3 网友最近的一篇文章 （http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs ... uperman99/88480.jsp）吸引我重新看回CCB的资料。
之前看到Merz的销量已经按月下滑，个人感觉明年难以保持像今年一样的高成长（今年的高成长%很大成分基于去年的low base effect），所以觉得上升空间不大了，就暂时卖出。
其实CCB的本益比对比其他汽车业同行还是偏低的。
由于明年的业绩成长的爆发力难以超越今年，所以成长空间很大部分取决于市场是否要给予PE rerating。
除非明年每月平均卖>1200辆车。
CCB如果恢复派息，Merz的新模型受市场欢迎的话还是可以有比较高的PE。
*Linear model 来 forecast revenue 的可靠度非常高。销量越好，营业额成直接正比。
Estimated EPS = 50 sen
Current Price = 3.38
Forward PE = 6.8
Target PE 8, upside = 21%
Target PE 10, upside = 51%。
要注意的是50sen的预期盈利当中，有11sen左右是MBM （Mercedes-Benz Malaysia）派发的股息。
这个股息政策已经在2013年revised了，不在是固定派息。换句话说，明年可能收不到这笔11,229,000的股息，那么盈利看似“大跌”的几率是存在的。
但是对比往年记录，MBM派息的数额是非常稳定的（2013年前是固定派息，2014年没有派息，2015年恢复派息）。
明年MBM是否继续派发同样/更高的股息，几率需要自己衡量了。
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Mercedes-Benz Malaysia
The
Mercedes-Benz brand has a long and rich heritage in Malaysia, dating
way back to the beginning of the 20th century. This heritage has grown
even stronger with the incorporation of DaimlerChrysler Malaysia Sdn
Bhd, now known as Mercedes-Benz Malaysia Sdn Bhd, a joint venture between Daimler AG and Cycle & Carriage Bintang Berhad on 1st January 2003.
Mercedes-Benz Malaysia currently employs over 230 employees with its administrative and sales office located at Menara TM in Kuala Lumpur whilst its production plant is located at Pekan, Pahang. Mercedes-Benz Malaysia manages the wholesale distribution of Mercedes-Benz, smart and Mitsubishi Fuso vehicles, service and spare parts as well as software development for global sales solutions and automotive apprentice training.
The retail network of Mercedes-Benz Malaysia is represented by 59 authorized dealers for the Mercedes-Benz, smart and Mitsubishi Fuso brands. A total of 90 outlets provides sales and after sales services nationwide. The emphasis placed on network development is a global initiative by Daimler AG in line with its brand philosophy to create a uniform worldwide brand that provides Mercedes-Benz customers with superb quality services.
With a total investment of RM120 million in Pekan Pahang, Mercedes-Benz Malaysia's collaborative effort with DRB-Hicom Berhad has resulted in the local assembly of some of the world's most coveted passenger cars namely the Mercedes-Benz S-Class, E-Class and C-Class as well as the Mercedes-Benz and Mitsubishi Fuso commercial vehicles.
----------------------------------------------------Mercedes-Benz Malaysia currently employs over 230 employees with its administrative and sales office located at Menara TM in Kuala Lumpur whilst its production plant is located at Pekan, Pahang. Mercedes-Benz Malaysia manages the wholesale distribution of Mercedes-Benz, smart and Mitsubishi Fuso vehicles, service and spare parts as well as software development for global sales solutions and automotive apprentice training.
The retail network of Mercedes-Benz Malaysia is represented by 59 authorized dealers for the Mercedes-Benz, smart and Mitsubishi Fuso brands. A total of 90 outlets provides sales and after sales services nationwide. The emphasis placed on network development is a global initiative by Daimler AG in line with its brand philosophy to create a uniform worldwide brand that provides Mercedes-Benz customers with superb quality services.
With a total investment of RM120 million in Pekan Pahang, Mercedes-Benz Malaysia's collaborative effort with DRB-Hicom Berhad has resulted in the local assembly of some of the world's most coveted passenger cars namely the Mercedes-Benz S-Class, E-Class and C-Class as well as the Mercedes-Benz and Mitsubishi Fuso commercial vehicles.
今日的量能很不错：
CCB (2925) - 合发吉星 (CCB, 2925) (3) - 能否再创佳绩？
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/bukithot/88954.jsp
