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chinwel 5007  Q1 之eps=6 sen ,rolling 4 quarters  eps=24sen ,
pe=13 ,stock price=rm3.12 ,目前仍然物有所值!
chinwel 有强大净利做后盾,股价上升有理,又有红股计昼.

1)网友糊涂兄之功课---

星期四, 十一月 26, 2015


ChinWell Q1'16 成绩单 + 年会简记

ChinWell Q1'16的业绩非常的标青,每股盈利高达6.07分VS去年同期3.28分,营业额也比去年增加了约10%左右,主要是因为马来西亚业务带动,我猜想这是GST带来的正面效应吧!还有就是防盗篱笆和石笼网的盈利也比去年同期进步了许多,马币走软也为它带来约287万的额外盈利。季报的重点如下:
  1. 标紧固件(Fasterners)业务增长了7.84%,盈利增长34%。
  2. 防盗篱笆和石笼网(Wire Products)业务也增长了15%,成功的转亏为盈,为公司带来2.09mil盈利。
  3. 马来西亚业务大幅度增长120%,GST除了让产品价格更具竞争力之外(6% GST VS 10% 销售税),同时也因客户减少购买走私入口的中国货而需求激增。我认为这是长期的利好,Chinwel有望逐渐提高本地市场的份额。
  4. 欧洲市场萎缩了,相信若不是DIY业务与汇率撑着,欧洲营业额的贡献将会更少。
  5. 每股净现金来到10分的高位了,资产表越来越漂亮,维持40%的派息率简直没难度。
数据:


年会简记
今天我也如约的出席了Chinwel的股东大会, 有幸与公司董事经理蔡永泉+太太, 公司执行董事蔡芑芸聊了约半个小时, 从公司业务开始聊, 也谈及国际经济局势与东南亚各国的竞争力。重点如下:

  1. 晋禾、晋亿与晋纬并不存在竞争关系,产品与针对的市场都各有不同。(一带一路火车轨道受惠的是晋亿)
  2. 公司的原料从中国采购,晋亿公司会帮忙圈定合格的商家,目前有3家公司以相当竞争的价格供应原料。(公司不考虑从晋亿购买原料)
  3. 马来西亚工厂的新员工(外劳)问题尚未解决,目前的员工只足够让公司以1班(shift)生产。
  4. 越南的员工冲劲十足,大部分员工都会做足12个小时(OT)。
  5. DIY包装需要靠人工,因此DIY包装阵营在越南,同时越南也是公司将来的成长的动力。
  6. 公司对DIY的前景表示乐观, 欧洲经济不景气会导致越来越多人亲自动手维修房子与家具, 这能够为公司的销售带来稳定的订单
  7. 公司将会受惠于TPPA,目前从越南出口至美国需要8%的税务,若TPPA执行,公司将有能力与中国其它厂家竞争。值得一提的是,美国的市场比欧洲更大。
  8. 公司的生产成本无法追平中国的主要原因是中国对环境的管理较为松懈,举个例子:公司单单在water treatment方面每个月就至少要花上约400k的费用。无论如何,相信中国会逐步提升对环境保护的要求,因此5年后相信公司的竞争力就能跟上了。
  9. 中国目前正在处理僵尸企业的问题,因此中国国内的商家都是在打着割喉战,廉价销售亏损较少,不销售基本上就是等破产。预计最终能够存活下来的将会是行业的老大、老二,没有竞争力的商家会被慢慢淘汰。
  10. 目前集团(包括晋禾、晋亿)占了全世界约3%的销售,是当之无愧的老大!
  11.  来自印度的竞争并不强,定时交货是它们最大的弱点。同时,印度内需足以消化国内的产能,因此极少在国际竞争。
  12. 公司段其内并没有派发红股的打算,不过明年会考虑回购自家公司。
  13. 公司上市至今,蔡董与家族从未卖过公司的股票,曾经有基金找过他,希望能够买到一些股份,然而董毫不考虑就拒绝了。董还说,在大马上市的意义并不大,他也曾想过要把公司私有化,不过最终还是没有执行。
是个相当务实并低调的人,不会乱花不该花的金钱,对来说,能够设立一个理念并贯彻的执行与达到目标是最有满足感的事。老板娘更笑说董以前是工作狂,年轻时每天都做足12个小时。我们虽然还谈及了许多信仰、人生观之类的,甚至开玩笑的说要请我们这些比较年轻的帮忙看管公司。呵呵,各位股东有兴趣吗?写了那么多废话不好,就此打住。。

总个来说,Chinwel是一家不可多得的好公司,业务会稳定的慢慢成长,不会有太多爆发的惊喜,不过也不会让他投资者晚上睡不着觉就是了。董还说,无论经济或营运环境多么糟糕,公司还是能够获利,同时公司也准备好面对未来L型经济的种种挑战!基于我没有写笔记,公司业务方面的讨论就只记得那么多了,希望能够给大家一个参考。
2)

星期六, 十一月 21, 2015


交易记录之追高买入Chinwel

上个周末看了Chinwell的年报之后,我才察觉经过这几年的经营之后,它已经成为一家净现金公司,并开始制定了40%派息率的政策,同时也是马币走软与GST的受惠公司之一。
星期一短暂的观察它的交易情况之后,我就开始微量的慢慢买入它,我本来是打算买点票打底顺便出席它的AGM,可没想到它周四开盘就走高,下午4点半之后又爆涨20分让我措手不及,就没有追高买入它。
然而,周4晚上重新翻看公司过去3年的资料后,我就决定如果它的买盘依然强劲,我就追高买入它了。它周五的走势依旧强劲,半天的成较量就超越了2000 张,我也就按照计划在1.68-1.72的价码加码了约50张的票。(投资组合买入的平均成本也从RM1.465增加得到RM1.57)
同时,刚好在闭市前Alaqar在1.33出现买盘,我就卖了约98张的货来补充子弹库,好让我下个星期在Chinwel的季报出炉前再加码一点点来当中 期投资。这几天比较忙,也连续几晚看Chinwel的资料看到凌晨1.30am,因此我打算出席它的AGM之后,或等它的季报出炉之后再补上 Chinwel的功课。今天只是记录一下我疯狂追高的交易,将来可以做个参考/学习,这样冲动的交易是对或错反而是次要了。
注:
上个星期我的交易比较多,为了筹积买Chinwel的资金,我在1块钱的价码把Hexza清了,只留1张免费票。同时也把手头上的CSCENIC与部分的 Alaqar卖出换Chinwel,下星期若有好的价格,我还会继续套利Alaqar。另外一家我打算加码的Complet 这几天的交易量都不大,看来唯有季报出炉之后再决定是否追高加码了。
数据:
3)

星期二, 十一月 24, 2015


转贴:台湾“螺丝大王”—蔡氏三兄弟 (chinwel的创业史)

晋 亿,这家一般人很陌生的公司,其实是全世界最大的螺丝企业。不起眼的小螺丝,被称为工业之米,最便宜的报价不过是新台币一分一颗,但是,光是生产螺丝,晋 亿集团(泛指旗下三家公司)年销售收入就达150亿元,可生产两万种螺丝,占全世界4万种螺丝的一半。晋亿集团在马来西亚、越南、中国台湾和大陆共有4个 工厂,拥有两家已上市和即将上市的公司。另外,晋亿集团的螺丝仓储与物流系统是全球最大的,总容重量达30万吨,所存钢材相当于41座巴黎铁塔的用量。分 布在6个国家的7个仓库随时库存2万种螺丝,每种都有3个月到一年用量的库存,以供应全球所需。全美进口的螺丝中,每两颗就有一颗是晋亿的产品。这个庞大 的螺丝王国,年产量55.80万吨。

把客厅当工厂成立晋禾公司
螺 丝王国的主角是三个兄弟:大哥蔡永龙现任中国大陆晋亿实业董事长、老二蔡永泉负责马来西亚和越南厂,目前是晋纬总经理,老三蔡永裕则是中国台湾晋禾总经 理。 1975年,还是20岁小伙子的蔡永龙,听说高雄冈山镇的螺丝产业正兴起,对那里的螺丝机像印钞机不断吐出钞票的传言充满憧憬。国小毕业后,蔡永龙就离开 台湾彰化竹塘老家,到冈山的大顺螺帽厂,从工厂最低层的黑手开始做起。 1979年,蔡永龙自行创业,凑了10万元,带着弟弟蔡永泉、蔡永裕自己买机器设备、零组件,组了两台螺帽成型机,把客厅当工厂,成立晋禾公司开始生产螺 帽。蔡永龙三兄弟出身比别人差、起步比别人晚,发展过程中,也遇到难以突破的瓶颈。当时,台湾中钢供应原料采取配额制,以上一年度的采购量,决定下年度原 料提取的多寡。而且螺丝业者若想进口原料,还需要中钢出具证明许可,原料供应制度限制了螺丝厂的发展,出现了强者更强的局面
走向海外第一步买错设备买错地

当 时蔡家三兄弟在台湾经营的晋禾企业,一个月获利已40万元,算是富足的中小企业。但是,蔡永龙不满足,赚钱之外,他要当螺丝业的老大!只是,在中钢的原料 配额制下,他永远不可能在台湾当上第一。要摆脱这样的困境,只有到海外设厂! 1987年,兄弟抱着大破大立的决心,展开前进泰国的计划,学了一年泰文之后,1988年,三兄弟前往泰国签下购地合约。在朋友邀请下,顺便往马来西亚槟 城考察,他们发现马来西亚槟城7成是华人,主要语言是闽南语,最重要的是当地有钢铁原料供应!当天,兄弟在旅途上召开紧急会议,转往槟城设厂,只在泰国设 仓库。他们从一开始就要做南亚第一,决定陆续投入11亿元。为了当第一,蔡永龙亲自督军,他仅国小毕业,但马来西亚的晋纬公司,却用了包括马来西亚、印 度、越南、中国、泰国、尼泊尔、孟加拉、缅甸、菲律宾、斯里兰卡等10国员工。为突破语言限制,蔡永龙发明图解螺丝生产的标准作业流程,包括螺丝线抽线 机、螺丝成型机、磨牙设备到仓库管理,所有的螺丝生产机台,都画了详细的操作步骤,让所有员工可一目了然。这套图解流程,让训练生手员工的时间,从3个月 缩短为1个月。 10国员工的文化背景和生活习惯南辕北辙。印度人喜欢在宿舍房间里养鸡生蛋当早餐,越南人则喜欢抓野狗煮火锅。蔡永龙只好把宿舍分成10处,分开管理。如 今,晋亿集团在越南、中国大陆的工厂都有菲律宾、马来西亚干部进驻,人才已开始国际化。 1993年,蔡永龙有了更石破天惊的举动,他决定陆续投资1亿美元到大陆设厂。当时台湾晋禾销售收入不过6亿元,这笔庞大投资一旦成功,蔡家三兄弟就可以 成为世界第一,但也有极大风险,万一失败,三兄弟可能没本钱再爬起来。

逆势操作赚“库存”和“时间”的钱
一 年一年搜集包括各国最大代理商当年度买卖状况,输入电脑建立资料与分析,如果搜集不到代理商资料,就直接花钱跟当地海关购买。在中国大陆,蔡永龙大胆尝 试,他采购巴西、俄罗斯、南韩与当地的便宜钢材。这些钢材品质比较低劣,生产不出好的螺丝,因此一般同业不敢采购。但他不认输,为扭转颓势,他开始投资上 游工厂设备,前前后后花了3年摸索与学习,直到1998年,最大、最完整的垂直整合厂──大陆晋亿厂终于完成投产,螺丝三兄弟完成全世界第一个螺丝一条龙 生产线,也正式坐上全球产能第一宝座。整合了螺丝制造过程,三兄弟接着发展仓储物流和渠道。 1992年,台湾晋禾每年获利在5000万元左右,却决定花8000万元盖台湾第一个螺丝自动仓储,准备储存价值2亿元、总量8000千吨的螺丝。消息传 出,同业抱着看笑话的心态来参观。自动仓储展现了三兄弟在螺丝产业的大格局。

晋 亿的螺丝,从成品完成到仓库就位储存,全部自动化。蔡永裕说,没有自动仓库前,一条出货线三个工人,要从当时数千种螺丝中找出客户定单所要求的规格与数 量,装满一个货柜要从早上八点做到半夜两、三点,现在靠自动仓储,一个工人装满一个货柜只要20分钟。他们的算盘是,当全球厂商都讲究“零库存”时,逆势 操作赚“库存”和“时间”的钱。蔡永龙说,靠生产螺丝赚钱的时代已过去,螺丝业已经是服务业,大陆晋亿、马来西亚晋纬、台湾晋禾要赚的是物流跟管理的钱。 台湾大学国际企业所教授赵义隆分析,所谓物流与生产两者零库存,并非是一味将库存放在生产端,或放在最末端零组件供货商上,而是两者之间有一套紧密的系 统。蔡永泉说:“我们手上随时都有全球各大代理的所有买卖资料,清清楚楚掌握整个螺丝市场交易与库存状况!”三兄弟不是盲目地堆积库存,而是掌握市场最新 动态。他们不仅精确掌握全美最大螺丝代理商Fastenal下给全球各大螺丝厂定单的数量,还可以替Fastenal分析整体美国市场的最新状况,教 Fastenal怎么抓住螺丝市场的商机。

“从 我们跨出台湾开始,我们就有计划地一步步搜集世界各国螺丝市场交易现况!”蔡永泉说,建立一个国家整体螺丝进出口与使用现况的资讯库,最少要三年。一年一 年搜集包括各国最大代理商当年度买卖状况,输入电脑建立资料与分析,如果搜集不到代理商资料,就直接花钱跟当地海关购买,不计代价与成本,也要取得该国在 该年度到底进出口多少种类与数量的螺丝。依据这套系统,螺丝三兄弟按照兄弟分工的方式,在大陆的蔡永龙主攻美国工业用螺丝与大陆市场、东南亚的老二蔡永泉主攻欧盟、东南亚与民生工业用螺丝、台湾的老三蔡永裕主攻高价合金钢螺丝市场。所有的库存按照市场实时状况做调整,缺什么螺丝就生产什么螺丝。 “所有库存务求三个月周转一次,随时检讨周转率低的库存!”蔡永泉、蔡永裕兄弟笑着说,应该怎么堆、该做什么库存才是关键。

   不仅如此,三兄弟由台湾主导研发,不停地开发新螺丝,将产品线的种类不断推高。赵义隆分析,一次式服务时代,客户在乎的不仅是报价,而是整体性的服务, 服务能力越高,掌握定单的机会越大。以螺丝产业为例,8成的定单可能都是标准型产品,其余两成则会有特殊要求,能替客户解决这两成的难题,就能通吃所有的 定单,这就是胜出关键。 “我们不仅替Fastenal解决定单难题,还要替它节省成本!”蔡永泉说,过去螺丝交货是一个个货柜运往洛杉矶,Fastenal收货之后再自行依不同 规格与数量分装送往各大据点,现在透过晋亿的自动仓储与两万种螺丝分类,Fastenal只要告知各据点需求与数量,螺丝三兄弟的工厂就按照这些需求,直 接送往美国各地,省了Fastenal自行分装的人力与物流的费用。螺丝生产毛利仅10%,但三兄弟一次式服务却能加收5%的服务费,在螺丝三兄弟手里,螺丝产业不再是制造业,完全变成另一套管理与服务模式。 (吕国祯)

  金羊网-民营经济报
糊涂注:这是一篇10年前的台湾民营经济报报导,10年后的今天,晋亿、晋纬与晋禾的货舱管理也 正如3兄弟预测般的为公司带来丰厚的利润,这也让我对晋纬(Chinwel)高库存或约RM100mil完成品感到安心。还没有研究这家公司之前,我曾疑 虑为何那么低调的公司竟然会有那么多基金买入它,尤其是国外的基金,而这一些都在我看了晋禾、晋亿的网站的资料后才意识到原来在大马上市的Chinwel 并不简单,它竟然是全世界螺丝产量第一的一部分。当时我就想,那么多的利好,竟然只值PE 10?这也未免太不可思议了,尤其是在中国上市的姐妹公司PE已来到300的天价水平,这也是我追高这家公司的理由之一。

4)十埋伏课--

5)分析 5007 chinwel--
6)感谢官前辈的付出与回报社会。

a)My Critics and Doubting Thomas - Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |   Publish date: Tue, 5 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM 

In the stock market, with the exception of the original company founders who listed their shares, smart investors will make money and stupid ones will lose money. As money cannot come down from the sky, the smart investors’ profit must come from those losers.
As I said many a time, all investors must examine their track record to see how well they have performed. Those who have been losing money must really change their stock selection method and also their mindset.
All my critics and doubting Thomas must seriously examine their track record to see why they have not been making as much money as they would like people to think. They often criticize what I write to show that they are clever. But they must remember that there are many other smart investors who are laughing at their senseless comments. If they are so good, why don’t they write some articles with their share recommendations for readers to judge them?
As Christmas has just gone by, let me tell you the famous biblical story of Doubting Thomas. About 2015 years ago, according to the Christian Bible, Jesus had 12 apostles. Jesus was crucified on a cross, died and buried. After 3 days, he rose from the death and appeared before his 11 apostles. One of the apostles, called Thomas, who was not present, said that he would not believe unless he put his hand into the spear wound of Jesus. Subsequently Jesus appeared before Thomas and asked him to put his hand into his spear wound.
The point of this story is that after I have a proven track record of my success in share investment and my charity donations, unfortunately there are still a few doubting Thomases who continue to doubt. Can’t you see my sincerity in posting so many articles to help people to improve their investment skill?
In fact, my critics often say that when I recommend any share I want them to buy so that I can sell to make money out of them. Obviously that cannot be true because if I have sold how could their audited annual reports show that I am one of the top shareholders in companies such as VS, Latitude, Lii Hen, CanOne, Chin Well, Focus Lumber and T Guan.
If you look at their price charts, you can see that all of them have gone up a few hundred per cent within the last 2 years. I have been promoting VS for a long time and its 2015 audited annual report shows that I am among the top 5 shareholders, owning more than 100 million Vs shares. Why are my critics so stupid to sell good shares to make me so rich?   
For a change, besides making money, my advice to all readers is to focus on gratitude and happiness. Gratitude is perhaps the most important key to finding success and happiness in the modern day. Knowing what we appreciate in life means knowing who we are, what matters to us and what makes each day worthwhile. Paying attention to what we feel grateful for puts us in a positive frame of mind. It connects us to the world around us and to ourselves. Research demonstrates that focusing on what we are grateful for is a universally rewarding way to feel happier and more fulfilled.
All readers must remember that our ultimate aim in life is happiness and we cannot take our money along when we die. I have written in my will that all my money and assets will be donated to charity when I die.

b)

How can investors make money in 2016? Koon Yew Yin

Author: Koon Yew Yin   |   Publish date: Sat, 26 Dec 2015, 09:06 AM

Many people have asked me this question. In the last 2 festive days, many people told me how I have changed their lives through my charity work and my writing on Malaysian politics and share investment.
One commentator of my recent article said that 99% of the readers like my writing and only 1% do not like. As a writer, I expect some critics and I expect them to do it in a polite manner and not like illiterates or idiots.
Here are some of holdings which still comply with my share selection golden rule even after their prices have gone up quite rapidly.  My golden rule is that I must be sure that the company can make more profit this year than last year and the projected P/E ratio is not more than 10.
I advise you to check all the shares you are holding to see that they can comply with my golden rule. Otherwise, you must cut loss and utilize the proceeds to buy better shares.
Can One: It is the largest tin cans and jerry cans manufacturer. It started more than 40 years ago and continues to improve its operation. It bought 146.1 million or 32.9% of Kian Joo shares at Rm 1.65 per share in 2012. The current price of Kian Joo is about Rm 3.30 per share. EPF is one of the 2 parties who have made an offer to buy up Kian Joo. Can One is waiting patiently.
Its 3 quarter EPS ending Sept 2015 was 39 sen and I can safely project its full year EPS to be about 55 because some of its products are sold in US$. Its last closing price was Rm 4.50. It will announce its full year result before end of February 2016.
Chin Well: It is among the largest manufacturers of screws, nuts and bolts in the world. 76% of its products are exported in foreign currencies. After it has acquired the 40% shares from its Vietnamese partners, its latest quarter EPS jumped to 6.07 sen from 4.41 sen. Its last closing price was Rm 1.92 per share.
Thong Guan: It is one of the largest plastic stretch film and bags, raffia stings, drinking straws and paper serviette manufacturers in the Asians region. It started business in 1942.
Its 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarter EPS are 4.4, 6.75 and 10.7 sen respectively. It about 2 months it will have to announce its 4th quarter result. In view of the depressed fossil fuel price, its raw plastic materiel is getting cheaper.  What will be its share price when its annual result is announced before end of Feb 2016?
I am also holding VS, Latitude, Lii Hen, Focus Lumber and Ge Shen because they still comply with my golden rule although their share prices have gone up quite rapidly. 
I am not asking you to buy any of the shares I mentioned above. But if you buy, you are doing it at your own risk.
CHINWEL 5007 - Chinwel 5007 晉緯 rm2.24 買入.
http://kongsenger.blogspot.my/2016/01/chinwel-5007-rm224.html
CHINWEL, CHINWEL (5007) 晉緯控股, 5007, CN5007, KLSE:CHINWEL, Investment,

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