BREXIT Is Just a Beginning

BREXIT finally is happened. 
Although most of the Central Bank and Investment Institute had did preparation by observe from the USD/MYR which rose before the day of BREXIT, to prepare enough local currency for the contingency of financial crisis. However, a big shock still happen in financial market on that day, and every investment institute is busy to supporting the stock market thus cause KLCI close with a very long shadows.   

BREXIT 最后真的发生了,虽然很多的央行和投资机构事前都做好了准备,从USD/MYR 可以看得出在BREXIT 前一天还大升了一段,明显的国内一些投资机构和央行大量汇了本币以防万一 。然而,还是引发了在金融市场的大波动,当天各大“国家队”在收市前忙着撑稳股市汇率,也因此KLCI 收了一根非常长的下影线,而且还一度跌破 了支撑。

But, did the story ended like that? No.
Dow Jones Index fall below the small neckline finally and going to downtrend which heading to the biggest neckline. At the same time, S&P 500 is facing the same fate too.

美国的Dow Jones Index 盘了那么巨大的大头部,终于都破了小颈线转为空头趋势往大头部的颈线迈进,同样的S&P 500 也面临一样的走势。

The only developed country stock market - Japan NIKKEI 225, also is the weakest stock market fell about one thousand point on that day, some more it break the downtrend support line as well. So, I predict still have room to drop, which until the first downtrend target point 13495.

而亚洲唯一的先进国股市 - 日本 NIKKEI 225,也是最弱的股市,当天直接跌了一千点左右,而且还破了下降趋势中继站的支撑。我预计还可以继续跌到达第一道跌幅价位大约 13495。

DAX can consider is the strongest market in Europe, but break the support line finally and getting closer to it final neckline, and what was waiting for is to break the final neckline to confirmed the downtrend.

DAX 是欧洲最强的股市,也终于破了小颈线,离大颈线越来越近,最后等待的是跌破大颈线来给大头部做个确认。

Lastly, the FTSE100 fate is unavoidable to having a big crash, but it the damage is lesser if compare to DAX. Maybe this is due to the FTSE100 is broke the neckline already thus the momentum is decrease. However, GBP/USD is facing the biggest drop in the half century, and I predict it can be reach the second downtrend target price. 

最后,这个事件的主角虽然也一样打劫难逃,但是跟DAX 相比跌幅却来得少。也许,主要的原因是因为起跌点的位置并不是在大颈线之上。然而,GBP/USD 就相反,跌副简直是到达了近这半个世纪的底点,我预计还可以到达第二波段跌幅。

In summary, Now all the major stock market is still at the high-side, especially Dow Jones Index and S&P 500 which is just going down from the top of head-side, DAX just heading near to the neckline; If compare with FTSE100 and Asia stock market which is broke the neckline already. So, We can see from here that all the stock market is heading to downtrend, plus I do not think there is any good news will be announce in the future (except a new round of QE is activated). Even though FED is give up to jack up the interest rate in July, but it doesn't mean the bearish trend is able to twisted. That is why George Soros is return from retirement and started to short the market.

So, BREXIT is just a beginning.

总的来说,现在众多的股市都还处在高档当中,尤其是美国的Dow Jones Index 和 S&P 500 只是刚刚从头顶跌破,而德国的DAX 才刚要接近破颈线;相比之下英国的FTSE100 和亚洲股市都已经跌破了颈线。其实,从这里可以看得见全球的主要市场已经是往下走,而且在未来的日子里并看不见有任何的利多消息;就算FED 在七月里不会升息,也并不代表可以扭转这个空头趋势。基于如此,也难免George Soros 会复出来做空股市。

所以,BREXIT 只是一个开始。