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DUFU (7233) Dufu科技 - 阿笔谈股系列7-浅谈Dufu- 阅读外国上市公司年报增加对马股上市公司的了解

最近, 证券监督委员会谴责杜甫科技(DUFU) 前首席执行员杨宝有和现任执行主席李辉达导致该公司蒙受不当损失,并处以罚款的新闻,令投资者对该公司管理层丧失信心, 所以股价有所下跌. DUFU, 股价RM0.605, 市值RM106M, P/E 7.6, ROE 11%, NTA RM0.682.
DUFU 的核心业务是为硬盘驱动器(Hard disk drive,HDD) 市场制造精密加工零件。所以,对HDD 市场的了解会对DUFU的认知有所帮助. 在1956年,IBM生产世界第一个HDD (RAMAC 305 System). 估计过去有大约200间公司生产HDD。但, 大部份公司已经消失了,有些被人收购,有些破产。
年份 HDD生产商
1985 75 个生产商
1999 15 个生产商
2009 6 个生产商
2013 3 个生产商
资讯来源: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hard_disk_drives

从2013年至到今天,还是3 个HDD生产商 (Western Digital,Seagate and Toshiba)

全球HDD市场占有率为Western Digital 43%,Seagate 39% 和 Toshiba 18%.

据一些旧资料显视,Seagate是DUFU的主要客户。所以,Seagate HDD 的销售会对DUFU的业绩有直接关系.

Seagate是一间美国上市公司。Seagate和其他马股上市公司一样都必需提交年报和季报。

DUFU (7233) Dufu科技 - 阿笔谈股系列7-浅谈Dufu- 阅读外国上市公司年报增加对马股上市公司的了解
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/ahbi/108951.jsp
每个国家对该国上市公司在年报和季报上公布的资料要求有所不一样。阿笔认为美国对年报和季报的资料要求比较严格。

以下是Seagate最新年报的摘要 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000104746916014732/a2229376z10-k.htm

-Product Life Cycles and Changing Technology.    Success in our industry has been dependent to a large extent on the ability to balance the introduction and transition of new products with time-to-volume, performance, capacity and quality metrics at a competitive price, level of service and support that our customers expect. Generally, the drive manufacturer that introduces a new product first benefits from improved product mix, favourable profit margins and less pricing pressure until comparable products are introduced (page 13). 推出新产品的好处如以上。

-Our industries are highly competitive (page 20). 所以, 需要大量的资金用于研发新产品。

-We are seeing direct competition from Solid State Drive (SSD) that is adversely impacting demand for HDD in some markets including Notebook and Enterprise Mission Critical (page 13).


                    资讯来源:DUFU Q2季报2016

HDD的生意未来前途不好。需要研发新产品求存。
- The disk drive industry traditionally experiences seasonal variability in demand with higher levels of demand in the second half of the calendar year. This seasonality is driven by consumer spending in the back-to-school season from late summer to fall and the traditional holiday shopping season from fall to winter (page 13).

通常下半年,销售比上半年好。

最近, Seagate推出的新产品:

新产品 链接
10TB Helium Enterprise Drive

http://www.seagate.com/as/en/about-seagate/news/seagate-now-shipping-10tb-helium-enterprise-drive-master-pr/?paramChannelName=newsroom

Seagate Launches World’s First USB-powered Desktop Hard Drive

http://www.seagate.com/as/en/about-seagate/news/seagate-launches-worlds-first-usb-powered-master-pr/?paramChannelName=newsroom

2TB Mobile Hard Drive

http://www.seagate.com/as/en/about-seagate/news/seagate-now-shipping-worlds-slimmest-and-fastest-2tb-mobile-hard-drive-pr/?paramChannelName=newsroom

然而,DUFU公司管理层值的信认吗?

年报 收入 净收入 全部董事酬金    (Directors’ remuneration) 最高董事酬金
2006 90.6M 7.86M 622,000 RM250,001 to RM300,000
2007 109M 13M 990,676 RM400,001 to RM450,000
2008 121M 9.8M 1M RM400,000 to RM450,000
2009 116M 11.1M 1.1M RM450,001 to RM500,000
2010 128M 4M 1.2M RM500,000 to RM550,000
2011 119M -2.7M 902,340 RM300,001 to RM350,000
2012 114M -3.28M 1.23M RM500,001 to RM550,000
2013 104M -2.35M 1.8M RM500,001 to RM550,000
2014 136M 8.27M 1.9M RM600,001 to RM650,000
2015 178M 18.97M 1.6M RM400,001 to RM450,000

当公司净收入减少或亏损时(2010,2012,2013年),董事酬金却增加!这好像业务员, 销售不好,却增加薪水的情况!

所以,不值得长期投资DUFU除非情况有所改变.

催化剂: 未来6个月的DUFU& SEAGATE季报数据(预计在21/11/2016, 24/2/2017,18/5/2017)

未来阿笔谈股系列将和大家讨论美国上市公司.

注:阿笔个人持有该公司股份,但并非该公司董事,顾问或员工。以上投资分析,纯属阿笔个人意见和观点。任何人因看此文章而造成任何投资损失,阿笔恕不负责。
免责声明:以上言论纯属读者分享,并没有任何买卖建议,或推高股压低价的其他企图,怒本网站不对你的盈亏负任何责任,谢谢
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