PE=Share Price / EPS (算在总Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 的EPS)
MLGLOBAL目前只有Qr.1 FY2017的EPS 2.3 cent。
为什么是2.3 cent？
很简单，
ML环球在第一季报净利报RM8,280,000 除于Number of share 366.59 mil 张票，
我们所得到的每股盈利EPS 是RM0.022386
相近为RM0.023。
| 第一季报EPS = RM8,280,000/366.59 mil
=RM 0.022386 = RM0.023 |
RM1.14/2.3 cent
PE= 49.57x
第一Qr. EPS 获得的PE 为49.57x, 合理吗？
看来呢，我们现在推算MLGLOBAL’s比益本有点言之过早。
但是，笔者可预算MLGlobal 2017财政年盈利来计算比益本。
| 净利 | Fy2016 (A) | Fy2017 (F) |
| 1st | rm906,000 | rm8,280,000 (A) |
| 2nd | rm145,000 | rm10,883,530 (F)
|
| 3rd | rm1,938,000 | rm14,810,410 (F) |
| 4th | 亏rm2,663,000 | rm14,810,410 (F) |
| 全年总盈利推算 | RM326,000 | RM48,784,350 (F) |
| 每股净利 EPS |
2.1 cent |
(F) 13.31 cent (366.59 mil shares) |
MLGLOBAL’s PE= share price / EPS (Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4’s EPS)
比益本= RM1.14 / 13.31 cent
=RM1.14 / RM0.1331
=8.565x
=8.57x
市场这么吝啬的吗？
全年比益本只能在8.57x 交易吗？
笔者不信。
有一位股友有曾提到，SUNCON vs MLGlobal
觉得好奇，所以笔者就来个探讨。不是作为比较目的。
| SUNCON | FY2016 EPS |
| 1st | 2.25 cent |
| 2nd | 2.42 cent |
| 3rd | 2.41 cent |
| 4th | 2.48 cent |
| Total EPS | 9.56 cent |
http://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5263
根据SUNCON Financial Information显示，
2016财政年,EPS 记录为9.99 cent。
RM0.0999 cent@PE of 20.22x=RM2.019978
=RM2.02
Suncon 比益本能处于20.22x交易.
唯一可以解释的就是该公司盈利Sustain，Growth Rate 一年比一年进步，
获得建筑合约强，长期属于成长股类型的股.
MLGLOBAL’s 8.57x (全年只能以8.57x 交易吗？)
| 比益本 | ML环球2017财政年每股盈利 EPS 为**RM0.1331 |
| 12x | RM1.60 |
| 13x | RM1.73 |
| 14x | RM1.86 |
| 15x | RM2.00 |
笔者很小胆，只推算比益本至15x，
不需预计到比益本20x，这得看看市场是否愿意让ML环球超过15x交易，而不是笔者说了算。
在16 June 2017，MLGLOBAL 公布proposed ：
NEW ISSUE OF SECURITIES (CHAPTER 6 OF LISTING REQUIREMENTS) :
FUND RAISING ML GLOBAL BERHAD (“MGB” OR THE “COMPANY”) PROPOSED PRIVATE PLACEMENT OF UP TO 10% OF THE TOTAL NUMBER OF ISSUED SHARES OF MGB (“PROPOSED PRIVATE PLACEMENT”)
On behalf of the Board of Directors of MGB (“Board”), RHB Investment Bank Berhad wishes to announce that the Company proposes to undertake a private placement of up to 10% of the total number of issued shares of the Company, to investors to be identified later and at an issue price to be determined by the Board and announced later.
Size of the Proposed Private Placement
As at 5 June 2017, being the latest practicable date prior to this announcement
(“LPD”), the share capital of MGB is RM350,331,980 comprising 366,586,894 MGB Shares and 180,000,000 Irredeemable Convertible Preference Shares in MGB (“ICPS”) convertible into 180,000,000 new MGB Shares at the conversion ratio of 1 ICPS into 1 new MGB Share.
Accordingly, a total of up to 47,414,419 Placement
Shares may be issued arising from the Proposed Private Placement after taking into consideration:
(a) The terms of the ICPS, whereby only 50% of the ICPS or 90,000,000 ICPS
can be converted at any time between 28 November 2017 and 27 November 2018; ONE YEAR PERIOD.
For information purposes, subsequent to 27 November 2018, all the
180,000,000 ICPS can be converted up to 28 November 2021; and
(b) 17,557,300 outstanding warrants 2014/2019 (“Warrants”).
For illustrative purposes, Assuming an Issue Price of RM1.02 per Placement Share, which represents a discount of approximately 9.89% to the 5-day VWAMP of MGB Shares up to and including 5 June 2017 of RM1.132 per MGB Share, the Proposed Private Placement is expected to raise gross proceeds between approximately RM37.39 million under the Minimum Scenario and RM48.36 million under the Maximum Scenario (as set out below):
RATIONALE FOR THE PROPOSED PRIVATE PLACEMENT
The Proposed Private Placement will enable the Company to raise funds for working capital to grow its business (as part of the business plan of MGB) without incurring additional interest cost as compared to other means of financing such as bank borrowings or issuance of debt instruments. The issuance of the Placement Shares would increase the Company’s capital base after taking into account MGB Group’s intended business operations as well as enhancing its shareholders’ funds.
The Board is of the view that the Proposed Private Placement is currently the more
appropriate avenue of fund raising after taking into consideration, among others, the following factors:
(a) the more expeditious way for MGB Group to raise additional funds as compared to
other forms of conventional fund raising; and
(b) the enlarged share base is also expected to enhance the liquidity of MGB Shares on
the Main Market of Bursa Securities.
Private Placement 是为Fy2018盈利而铺路，引进IBS 建筑科技，节省时间及减少成本，提高盈利. 此外，股本增加可吸引更多的投资者加入MLGLOBAL. Minimum Scenario : Assuming none of the 90,000,000* ICPS are converted into new MGB Shares and none of the outstanding Warrants are
exercised into new MGB Shares. Maximum Scenario : Assuming 90,000,000* ICPS are converted into new MGB
Shares (“1st Tranche ICPS”) and the 17,557,300
outstanding Warrants are exercised into new MGB Shares.
Enlarged Share Capital of MLGLOBAL 最多达521,558,613 张票.
预料Private Placement 10%会在3rd业绩Fy2017 公布之前完毕.
所以在这里，笔者将3rd 和4th 盈利除于521,558,613 张票.
| 净利 | Fy2016 (A) | Fy2017 (F) |
| 1st | rm906,000 | rm8,280,000 (A) or EPS rm0.023 |
| 2nd | rm145,000 | rm10,883,530 (F)
除于366.59 mil 张票 EPS=rm0.03 |
| 3rd | rm1,938,000 | rm14,810,410 (F)
除于521,558,613 张票 EPS=rm0.028 |
| 4th | 亏rm2,663,000 | rm14,810,410 (F)
除于521,558,613 张票 EPS=rm0.028 |
| 全年总盈利推算 | RM326,000 | RM48,784,350 (F) |
| 每股净利 EPS | 2.1 cent | (F) 10.9 cent |
Fy2017每股赢利10.9 cent 的推算已纳入10% 的Private Placement.
| 比益本 | ML环球2017财政年每股盈利 EPS 为10.9 cent |
| 12x | RM1.31 |
| 13x | RM1.42 |
| 14x | RM1.53 |
| 15x | RM1.64 |
资金回酬Return on Equity Ratio vs MLGLOBAL。
The return on equity ratio or ROE is a profitability ratio that measures the ability of a firm to generate profits from its shareholders investments in the company.ROE，简单来说，就是我们每投资RM1.00, 会得到多少percentage 回报/回酬。
In other words, the return on equity ratio shows how much profit each dollar of common stockholders’ equity generates.
So a return on 1 means that every dollar of common stockholders’ equity generates 1 dollar of net income.
This is an important measurement for potential investors because they want to see how efficiently a company will use their money to generate net income.
从ROE 角度中，我们可以知道该公司如何使用投资者金钱去赚钱，同时，我们也从中获得资讯该公司赚钱的效力与速度。不仅如此，再看看另一个方面，我们可晓得公司管理层如何积极及有效力为公司创造价值。
ROE is also and indicator of how effective management is at using equity financing to fund operations and grow the company.
Formula ROE计算法
The return on equity ratio formula is calculated by dividing net income by shareholder’s equity.
ROE= Net Income / Shareholders Equity
净利必须扣除掉股息，如果该集团有打算派发股息的话,庆幸的目前没有，因笔者更在乎的是MLGlobal可使用资金（净利）来接获建筑合约，增加订单及成为净现金建筑公司如Gkent，Gadang，Kerjaya. 这样一来，公司价值与知名度将会进一步提升。
Most of the time, ROE is computed for common shareholders.In this case, preferred dividends are not included in the calculation because these profits are not available to common stockholders. Preferred dividends are then taken out of net income for the calculation.
Also, average common stockholder’s equity is usually used, so an average of beginning and ending equity is calculated.
Analysis of ROE
Return on equity （ ROE）measures how efficiently a firm can use the money from shareholders to generate profits and grow the company. Unlike other return on investment ratios, ROE is a profitability ratio from the investor’s point of view—not the company.In other words, this ratio calculates how much money is made based on the investors’ investment in the company, not the company’s investment in assets or something else.
That being said, investors want to see a high return on equity ratio because this indicates that the company is using its investors’ funds effectively.
Higher ratios are almost always better than lower ratios, but have to be compared to other companies’ ratios in the industry.
Since every industry has different levels of investors and income, ROE can’t be used to compare companies outside of their industries very effectively.
Many investors also choose to calculate the return on equity at the beginning of a period and the end of a period to see the change in return. This helps track a company’s progress and ability to maintain a positive earnings trend.
Example
Tammy’s Tool Company is a retail store that sells tools to construction companies across the country. Tammy reported net income of $100,000 and issued preferred dividends of $10,000 during the year. Tammy also had 10,000, $5 par common shares outstanding during the year. Tammy would calculate her return on common equity like this:RM1.80 = rm100,000-rm10,000/ 10,000@rm5
As you can see, after preferred dividends are removed from net income Tammy’s ROE is 1.8.
This means that every dollar of common shareholder’s equity earned about $1.80 this year.
In other words, shareholders saw a 180 percent return on their investment.
Tammy’s ratio is most likely considered high for her industry. This could indicate that Tammy’s is a growing company.
An average of 5 to 10 years of ROE ratios will give investors a better picture of the growth of this company.
Company growth or a higher ROE doesn’t necessarily get passed onto the investors however. If the company retains these profits, the common shareholders will only realize this gain by having an appreciated stock.
ROE 的平均计算得在5年至10年，因这才可更具体的露出该公司的成长与赚钱能力。
在Mlglobal 里，要算出ROE 显然太过早，因才在去年lifted out from PN17，
同时 LBS 集团也在几个月前injected 该公司地建筑部门在MLGlobal。
ROE要拿至少5年时间，才能提供投资者一个明确的答案。
MLGLOBAL 集团在Fy2017开始一直到Fy2021财政年的盈利，总合起来将会带来实际的画面！
每RM1.00，ROE 会是多少%
ROE是要看这几年该公司累计的盈利。
就算我们可以算出一年里的ROE，也不是准确的。
话说如此，但我还是心痒痒的作出以下算式.
| 至目前为止，只有第一业绩Fy2017，净利RM8,280,000.
ROE = Net Income / Shareholders Equity = RM8,280,000 / 366.59 mil@rm1.12 =0.0201@100% =2.02% |
| 依据笔者2017年总净利来计算，可以获知ROE为：
（股价RM1.12 保持不变，集团没有在2017年派发股息） ROE= Net Income / Shareholders Equity =RM48,784,350/ 521,558,613张票 @rm1.12 =0.0835 (乘100%) =8.35% ROE 8.35% 不可能只花一年时间，就可以升到这么高的ROE，绝对不可能的事！ |
| RM48,784,350总净利，EPS :10.9 cent, 就以比益本15x交易，股价料达RM1.64
那么，ROE答案就不同了： ROE= Net Income / Shareholders Equity = RM48,784,350/ 521,558,613张票@rm1.64 = 0.057 (乘100%) =5.70% 5.70%还可以接受。 |
| 第3个情况，RM48,784,350总净利，EPS :10.9 cent, 就以比益本16x交易，股价料达RM1.74
ROE= Net Income / Shareholders Equity = RM48,784,350/ / 521,558,613张票@rm1.74 = 0.0537 (乘100%) =5.37% |
| 第4个情况，RM48,784,350总净利，EPS :10.9 cent, 就以比益本17x交易，股价料达RM1.85
ROE= Net Income / Shareholders Equity = RM48,784,350 / 521,558,613张票@rm1.85 = 0.0505 (乘100%) =5.05% ROE 5% 是最合理！ |
Gkent用了4-5年时间，ROE从低于4%升至25%。
（笔者持有 Gkent 一年半了。如果4年前大量买入Gkent，笔者现在已经是全职Stock Writer了）
Gadang 则花了3年时间左右ROE升至16%-17%。
(一年前买入Gadang RM1.92至今)
而Kerjaya从去年2016年，ROE 进步至12-13%
（一年前买入Kerjaya RM2.22至今)
MLGlobal, 绝对不可能2017年里，有如此的变天法术的本事从ROE 2%进步到8%-11.9%。理想ROE in 2017财政年介于5%之间.
在笔者说声“共勉之”之前，
以上的推算是只为MLGLOBAL 的2017财政年做出小胆算法.
In fact, the key to finding stocks that will make you rich in the long-run often involves finding companies capable of generating a sustained, outsize return on equity over many decades and acquiring it at a reasonable price.在结束之前，笔者解释的PE 和ROE 都是在MLGlobal还没真真成为事实的。
我与一些Stock Writer比较另类，因我不是等到某某上市公司的业绩公布了，业绩已创新高了，才把text研究分享出来，相反的，我研究则是Intrinsic Value Stock.
谢谢。
