全哥股票新手教室49:官有缘前辈的金玉良言(Business sense)


全哥股票新手教室49:官有缘前辈的金玉良言(Business sense)



身为一个生意人,
我能理解投资要有Business sense ,
理由很简单,一个Super投资者拥有先天性的生意敏觉,
能提前意识到生意的蓝图和前景,
而一个Normal 投资者只会依据基本面(FA)和技术面(TA)来投资股票,
他们的分别在于,
Business sense 不会特别在意当下的趋势,
比如说生意还处于亏损或短期不利状况,
而基本面和技术面其实只是"过去式"的参考,
并不能放映未来的价值。


当然,我们不能否认基本面和技术面的重要性和参考性,
无论你是Super 还是Normal , 能赚到知识才是重点(切勿本末倒置)。
总结而言,Business sense 并不是三言两语就能领悟,
但作为一个生意人,
我认为Business sense 是包含以下几个重点:-


1.SUPPLY &DEMAND
需要有供需的强烈意识,比如理解顾客的需求,公司的供给,

要知道“蛋糕”的分配利弊及影响。




2.COMMON SENSE
大环境的敏感度,
比如上游,中游,下游一连串的生意知觉,

能够很清晰的分析个中利弊及影响。



3.THINK BIG
寻找一家未来能创造“蛋糕”的公司,

而不是正在竞争如何去瓜分“蛋糕” 的公司,
要知道做大“蛋糕”的重要性,
现在的龙头老大也许是未来的“夕阳老大”。

三言两语,分享到此,哈哈


以下是官有缘前辈的原文

Business Sense is More Important Than FA and TA - Koon Yew Yin
Immediately after the announcement of the closure of Megasteel in early September 2016 all the share prices of steel manufacturers and traders invariably shot through the roof. Steel players are Masteel, Southern Steel, CSC Steel, Mycron, Annjoo; downstream players like Choo Bee, Leon Fuat, AYS, Leader Steel etc Investors simply bought them without knowing what the businesses of the companies and who are their customers. They bought the shares as if there was no tomorrow.

Southern Steel: manufactures reinforcement steel bars for building construction and black and galvanized steel pipes for other uses.
Malaysia Steel: manufactures reinforcement steel bars for the building construction.
Choo Bee: manufactures small diameter water pipes and hollow and angle section for building construction.
Mycron: Manufactures cold rolled steel coil (CRC) or sheets for motor and appliances, fridges, steel furniture etc.
CSC Steel: Manufactures cold rolled steel coil (CRC) or sheets for motor and appliances, fridges, steel furniture etc.

Our famous Mr Ooi Teik Bee has been publishing several articles to promote Malaysia Steel since the closure of Megasteel in Sept 2016. Once I wrote about Malaysia Steel to prevent people from losing money. But Mr Ooi Teik Bee told me that I should not publish anything against his interest. You must know that Mr Ooi teaches FA and TA and he does not care about the company’s business.

Business sense

As everyone can see there is an oversupply of buildings in every town and city in Malaysia, investors should know how this situation will affect all the steel manufacturers. Malaysia Steel makes steel bars for the concrete construction. How can the company make more profit? 

Of course, there will be still a few stubborn investors who refused to admit their mistake and cut loss. They are hoping for some miracle that can improve the price of their holdings.

Beside financial and technical analysis, investors must have some business sense to be really successful. All you need is common sense and you do not need an accountant to make money from the stock market. I am not an accountant and I can hardly understand a balance sheet, cash flow etc.

That is why and how I bought so much JAKS when it is still not showing any profit yet. After I took Mr Ooi to visit the Jaks’ power plant construction site in Hanoi, he still did not buy to support me. I started to worry if I was really wrong. Where am I going to hide my face?   

Fortunately, the analyst from Public Bank and the analyst from Affin Hwang wrote their recommendations after their visit. The later has a target price of Rm 2.23 per share.  

Now I should feel exonerated if I was really wrong.  

Malaysia Steel announced its 4th quarter ending Dec 2017 with a reduced profit yesterday. Mr Ooi circulated his comment on the Masteel’s result announcement last night. He is still optimistic.  

As I am writing, its price has dropped 20 sen from Rm 1.40 to Rm 1.20 per share.

Many of my critics from i3investor forum told me to shut up because it is not my business to say anything about Masteel because I do not even own one share. 

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By 享 (1/3/18)
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