[HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD,北沙巴生产运营的整合和优化,在Guillemot A,Teal和Teal South油田钻探的机会,地下评估工作正在进行中,平均正常运行时间和平均日产油率继续提高] - James的股票投资James Share Investing


 [HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD,北沙巴生产运营的整合和优化,在Guillemot A,Teal和Teal South油田钻探的机会,地下评估工作正在进行中,平均正常运行时间和平均日产油率继续提高]

北沙巴:
于二零一八年三月三十一日,大红花石油完成收购2011年North Sabah EOR PSC下50%的参与权益。

Anasuria:
他们还受到本年度期间发生的两起计划外事件的影响,即(i)Cook-P1井的生产暂时中断,这也影响了Guillemot A油田的气举操作,以及(ii)他们暂时失效的Anasuria FPSO上的气体压缩设施再次影响了Guillemot A油田的气举操作。所有此类技术问题在本年度得到解决,油井和设施现在正在达到预期水平。

3D Oil, VIC/L31 & VIC/P57:
该部门于本年度录得LAT为500万令吉。

投资控股和集团活动:
在本季度,该部门的LAT为420万令吉。

非流动资产:
截至二零一八年六月三十日,大红花石油的非流动资产为15.715亿令吉,而二零一七年六月三十日则为12.36亿令吉。该增加主要由于收购事项完成后包含大红花石油于2011年北沙巴EOR PSC 50%参与权益的可识别非流动资产公允价值所致的金额所致。

流动资产:
流动资产由2017年6月30日的8,360万令吉增加至2018年6月30日的4.025亿令吉。2018年7月24日如期收到第二次原油出口收入达9580万令吉。现金及银行结余增加了8,150万令吉,主要是由于在2018年6月30日之前及时收了Anasuria和North Sabah部门的原油采购收益。此外,North Sabah和Anasuria的其他与运营相关的应收账款为6,650万令吉和1360万令吉。库存增加了5,390万令吉,主要是由于本年度末原油余额增加所致。

负债总额:
本年度总权益增加2.534亿令吉主要是由于新普通股配售所产生的现金流入,Anasuria Cluster和North Sabah资产产生的净额收益,以及收购产生的业务合并中的负商誉。

北沙巴:
北沙巴部门于本季度实现EBITDA为1.766亿令吉,而截至2017年6月30日止三个月期间则为8,960万令吉。收购2011年北沙巴EOR PSC 50%参与权益已于2018年3月31日完成。本季度,大红花石油首次记录了该部门的原油销售。

Anasuria:
该部门于本季度录得EBITDA及LBT分别为520万令吉及1230万令吉,与之前季度相比,则EBITDA为3480万令吉及PBT为2010万令吉。

3D Oil, VIC/L31 & VIC/P57:
在本季度,该部门录得的LAT为80万令吉,相比之前的LAT为220万令吉。由此产生的当前季度调整为抵消减记金额为20万令吉,而在前一季度,调整为减值亏损130万令吉。

投资控股和集团活动:
该部门录得本季度LAT减少2170万令吉,而上一季度的LAT为2590万令吉。这主要归因于以下费用项目在前一季度更高:
•外汇净未实现的净亏损为820万令吉,主要是由于以澳元计价的公司间证券和澳元兑令吉汇率较低;
•钻井平台减值660万令吉;和,
•业务发展活动和专业费用增加的费用高达430万令吉。

前景:
北沙巴:
•计划维护和2019年开发项目 - 他们打算在接下来的两个财政季度开展计划维护活动。他们还准备在2019年开始开发项目;和

•北沙巴生产运营的持续整合和优化 - 他们的工作重点仍然是确保北沙巴运营与现有工作流程和基于绩效的运营文化的无缝整合。他们还将专注于降低中期的平均单位生产成本。

Anasuria集群:
•2019年和2020年的高等级钻探机会 - 他们在Guillemot A,Teal和Teal South油田确定了几个可在2019年和2020年钻探的机会。地下评估工作正在进行中,因此可能有机会按投资考虑排名。

•确定增加正常运行时间和生产的机会 - 他们已经确定了在Anasuria FPSO设施上建立冗余和消除其瓶颈的机会。正在评估这些机会,如果实施,将有可能提高液体生产率。他们目前正在进行详细的工程研究,以评估各种机会。这些机会是他们在截至2020年6月30日的财政年度之前将Anasuria集群的产量提高到约5,000桶/天(净)的战略的一部分。

他们预计布伦特原油价格将在目前的价格水平下持续,因为:
•全球石油需求强劲增长,特别是来自中国和印度;
•勘探和开发项目投资最少的期间(2015年至2017年);
•随着中东地区地缘政治紧张局势的加剧,石油供应中断的风险增加;
•委内瑞拉产量持续下降,利比亚供应中断;
•石油输出国组织(“欧佩克”)及其合作伙伴严格遵守商定的供应削减水平,导致库存量减少;和,
•美国重新制定可能影响石油供应的伊朗制裁措施。
鉴于其历史经营业绩指标,这些强劲的油价趋势应该有利大红花石油的积极发展。

Anasuria集群:生产运营:
与上几个季度相比,本季度的平均正常运行时间和平均日产油率继续提高。由于更高的平均日产油率和持续的成本管理,另一个关键绩效指标OPEX per boe已经下降。

本季度期间没有重大计划或计划外事件对资产的运营绩效产生重大影响。自去年9月和10月为期一个月计划的FPSO转变以来进行的主要维护工作的结果反映在当前季度的运营表现中。平均正常运行时间稳步提升至94%,与上一季度相比,平均每日油产量增加约20%,增幅为3,736桶油/天。

货物出口延期至2018年7月2日,以确保整体安全和平稳运行,同时GUA-P2侧轨井的钻探正在进行中。截至本报告日期,公司已成功完成2018年9月30日(“1QFY19”)财政季度的两次原油开采(524,432桶)。预计这对他们在1QFY19的财务表现有利。

Anasuria集群:P2-ST的钻探:
在Guillemot-A油田(“P2-ST”)钻探GUA-P2产油井的侧轨已于2018年6月4日开始钻探,预计将于2018年9月初完工。将进入现有的GUA-P2井并随后将井向侧面追踪到Forties水库的一个隔间,该水库预计尚未开发。该项目是一个生产增强项目,目标是解锁额外的石油。

P2-ST项目代表了公司在Anasuria集群中的第一个主要资本支出计划,一旦完成,GUA-P2井的产量预计将增加整个Anasuria集群的平均日产量。大红花石油于本季度向P2-ST支付约3,010万令吉,预计该项目完成后的估计总成本为9590万令吉。值得注意的是,在英国,Anasuria Hibiscus UK有权节省税收总计4440万令吉(占该项目资本支出的46.25%)。

Anasuria集群:Cook Water Injector项目:
该项目涉及在Cook油田钻探注水井以增加其储层压力。希望增加的油藏压力将刺激更高的产量并提高该油田的采收率。注水井的目标是在2019年中期钻探,海底管道预计将在2019年下半年安装。该海底管道将注水井连接到Anasuria FPSO。

Anasuria集群:储备升级:
P2-ST和Cook WI项目符合集团的生产增强战略,旨在释放Anasuria集群的价值。为此,公司已委托Leap Energy Partners Sdn Bhd(“Leap”)对Anasuria Hibiscus UK归属的Anasuria集群进行现场和可回收碳氢化合物的独立评估。在2018年7月23日的一份报告中,Leap表示,根据其评估,截至2018年7月1日,英国Anasuria Hibiscus的净已探明和可能储量(“2P储量”)已增加至2440万桶(“mmbbls”) 。

Leap估计的2P储量净增加4.2 mmbbls或20.8%,而RPS能源顾问有限公司(“RPS能源”)预计截至2016年3月1日为20.2 mmbbls,此前将Anasuria Hibiscus UK的资产从该资产中扣除。 Anasuria Hibiscus UK自收购Anasuria Cluster以来,在此期间生产了约2.5 mmbbls的石油。

北沙巴:生产运营:
平均正常运行时间为96%(与前季度的表现一致),而平均石油生产率略微增加了约4%。 SEA Hibiscus将继续努力确保北沙巴业务与公司现有的工作流程和基于绩效的运营文化的无缝整合。他们还期待在短期内通过地表和地下活动确定和实施生产优化和增强计划。

澳大利亚:
大红花石油获得资金的机会有限,这意味着投资的相关活动必须考虑优先,那些提供更大经济效益的项目将在承诺较低回报水平的项目之前更早实施。鉴于Anasuria集团内低风险确定项目的预期资本要求,以及可能进一步执行北沙巴项目的资本要求,管理层可能会推迟为其在澳大利亚境外开发项目寻求最终投资决策(“FID”)最少三年,以便在他们的机会组合中选择更有吸引力的投资。

使命(2017年 - 2021年):
他们已经披露了2017年至2021年的业务目标。这些业务目标在此重复:
•现有核心资产区域的已探明和可能的石油储量/权利为100 mmbbls桶;和,
•每日20,000 bbls桶的净产量。
随着North Sabah交易的完成,大红花石油的净生产权益总额达到2021年任务的40%至50%。在2021年任务中实现的净2P储备也在同一范围内。他们预计通过在其投资组合中的资产内以及通过有选择性已识别的新企业发展的机会来实现其任务的差距。

结论意见:
虽然已将其任务明确表达至2021年,但他们很高兴能够实现几个关键的里程碑,这些里程碑是成功完成这些任务的关键,它们是:
•预计从1QFY19开始,P2-ST项目的安全执行将导致增量生产;和,
•完成North Sabah交易并持续整合North Sabah业务。
他们认为,这些里程碑的实现加上相对稳定的原油价格环境对其股东来说是积极的增值因素。除非出现意外情况,否则他们预计这些因素对大红花石油下一个财政年度的表现来说是个好兆头。
------------------------------------------------
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最终决定永远是你的,谢谢。

James Ng
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[HIBISCUS PETROLEUM BHD, integration and optimisation of North Sabah production, drilling opportunities in the Guillemot A, Teal and Teal South fields, sub-surface evaluation work is on-going, average uptime and average daily oil production rate have improved]

North Sabah:
The Group completed the acquisition of 50% participating interests under the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC on 31 March 2018.

Anasuria:
They were also affected by two unplanned events that occurred during the Current Year, namely (i) a temporary interruption in production of the Cook-P1 well which also affected gas lift operations on the Guillemot A field and (ii) a temporary failure of their gas compression facility on board the Anasuria FPSO which again affected gas lift operations on the Guillemot A field. All such technical issues were resolved during the Current Year and wells and facilities are now performing at the expected levels.

3D Oil, VIC/L31 & VIC/P57:
The segment recorded LAT of RM5.0 million in the Current Year.

Investment holding and group activities:
During the Current Quarter, this segment incurred a LAT of RM4.2 million.

Non-current Assets:
The Group’s non-current assets amounted to RM1,571.5 million as at 30 June 2018 compared to RM1,236.0 million as at 30 June 2017. The increase was mainly driven by the inclusion of the amount attributable to the fair value of identifiable non-current assets of the Group’s 50% participating interests in the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC upon completion of the Acquisition.

Current Assets:
Current assets increased from RM83.6 million as at 30 June 2017 to RM402.5 million as at 30 June 2018. Proceeds from the second crude oil offtake amounting to RM95.8 million was received on schedule on 24 July 2018. Cash and bank balances increased by RM81.5 million, largely due to timely collection of proceeds from crude oil offtakes in both the Anasuria and North Sabah segments by 30 June 2018. In addition, other operational-related receivables in North Sabah and Anasuria amounted to RM66.5 million and RM13.6 million. Inventories have increased by RM53.9 million largely due to higher crude oil balances as at the end of the Current Year.

Total Liabilities:
The increase in total equity during the Current Year by RM253.4 million was mainly attributable to cash inflows originating from the placement of new ordinary shares, net earnings generated from both the Anasuria Cluster and North Sabah assets, and also the inclusion of the negative goodwill in relation to the business combination arising from the Acquisition.

North Sabah:
The North Sabah segment achieved an EBITDA of RM176.6 million in the Current Quarter as compared to RM89.6 million in the three-month period ended 30 June 2017 (“Preceding Quarter”). The acquisition of 50% participating interests in the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC was completed on 31 March 2018. During the Current Quarter, the Group recorded crude oil sales generated from this segment for the first time.

Anasuria:
The segment recorded an EBITDA and a LBT of RM5.2 million and RM12.3 million respectively in the Current Quarter as compared to that achieved in the Preceding Quarter, i.e. EBITDA of RM34.8 million and PBT of RM20.1 million.

3D Oil, VIC/L31 & VIC/P57:
During the Current Quarter, the segment recorded a LAT of RM0.8 million as compared to a LAT of RM2.2 million in the Preceding Quarter. The resulting adjustment in the Current Quarter was a reversal of impairment amounting to RM0.2 million, whilst in the Preceding Quarter the adjustment was an impairment loss of RM1.3 million.

Investment holding and group activities:
This segment recorded a decrease in LAT of RM21.7 million in the Current Quarter as compared to a LAT of RM25.9 million in the Preceding Quarter. This was mainly attributed to the following expense items which were higher in the Preceding Quarter:
• Higher net unrealised losses on foreign exchange of RM8.2 million largely arising from the translation of AUD-denominated intercompany securities at a weaker AUD against the Ringgit;
• Impairment of the Rig of RM6.6 million; and,
• Higher expenses incurred for business development activities and professional fees amounting to RM4.3 million.

Prospects:
North Sabah:
• Planned maintenance and 2019 development projects – They intend to ramp-up planned maintenance activities in the next two financial quarters. They are also preparing for commencement of development projects in the 2019 calendar year; and,

• Continued integration and optimisation of North Sabah production operations – Their efforts remain focused on ensuring the seamless integration of the North Sabah operations with their existing work processes and performance based operating culture. They will also be focused on lowering average unit production costs over the medium term.

Anasuria Cluster:
• High-grading drilling opportunities for 2019 and 2020 – They have identified several drilling opportunities in the Guillemot A, Teal and Teal South fields which can be drilled in 2019 and 2020. Sub-surface evaluation work is on-going so that opportunities may be ranked for investment consideration.

• Identifying opportunities to enhance uptime and production – They have identified opportunities to build redundancy and debottleneck their processing facilities on the Anasuria FPSO facility. These opportunities are being evaluated and if implemented, will potentially increase liquid production rates. They are currently conducting detailed engineering studies to rank the various opportunities. These opportunities are part of their strategy to enhance production from the Anasuria Cluster to a volume of circa 5,000 bbls/day (net) by financial year ending 30 June 2020.

They expect that Brent crude oil prices would be sustainable at current price levels given:
• Strong global oil demand growth, particularly from China and India;
• The prolonged period (2015 to 2017) of minimal investment in exploration and development projects;
• Higher oil supply disruption risk with rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region;
• Continuing production decline in Venezuela and supply disruption in Libya;
• Strong compliance of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (“OPEC”) and their partners to agreed levels of supply cuts causing stockpiles to shrink in volume; and,
• Reinstitution of sanctions by the United States of America on Iran which could affect oil supply.
Given their historical operating performance metrics, these stronger oil price trends should be a positive development for the Group.

Anasuria Cluster: Production Operations:
Average uptime and average daily oil production rate have continued to improve in the Current Quarter when compared to the previous quarters as shown in the table above. As a result of a higher average daily oil production rate and their continued management of costs, the OPEX per boe, another key performance indicator, has decreased.

There were no major planned or unplanned events during the Current Quarter that significantly impacted operational performance of the asset. The result of the major maintenance work that has been undertaken since the month-long planned FPSO turnaround in September and October last year is reflected in the operational performance of the Current Quarter. The average uptime has steadily improved to 94%, which has contributed to an approximately 20% increase in the average daily oil equivalent production rate of 3,736 boe/day when compared to the Previous Quarter.

The cargo offtake was deferred to 2 July 2018 to ensure the overall safety and smooth running of operations whilst the drilling of the GUA-P2 side track well was ongoing. As of the date of this report, the Company has successfully completed two crude oil offtakes (524,432 bbls) for the financial quarter ending 30 September 2018 (“1QFY19”). This is expected to contribute favourably to their financial performance for 1QFY19.

Anasuria Cluster: Drilling of P2-ST:
Drilling of a side-track from the GUA-P2 oil producing well on the Guillemot-A field (“P2-ST”) had commenced on 4 June 2018 and is expected to be completed by the early part of September 2018. It entailed re-entering the existing GUA-P2 well and subsequently side-tracking the well towards a compartment of the Forties reservoir that was prognosed to be untapped. This project is a production enhancement project, with the objective of unlocking additional volumes of oil.

The P2-ST project represents the Company’s first major capital expenditure programme in the Anasuria Cluster and upon its completion, the production from the GUA-P2 well is expected to increase the average daily production of the Anasuria Cluster as a whole. The Group had incurred approximately RM30.1 million during the Current Quarter towards P2-ST, and the total estimated cost on completion of the project is forecasted to be RM95.9 million. It is important to note that in the UK, Anasuria Hibiscus UK is entitled to a total tax savings of RM44.4 million (46.25% of capital expenditure on this project).

Anasuria Cluster: Cook Water Injector Project:
This project involves the drilling of a water injection well into the Cook field to increase its reservoir pressure. It is hoped that an increased reservoir pressure will stimulate higher production and also enhance oil recovery from this field. The water injection well is targeted to be drilled in mid-2019 and a subsea pipeline is expected to be installed in the second half of 2019. This subsea pipeline will link the water injection well to the Anasuria FPSO.

Anasuria Cluster: Reserves Upgrade:
The P2-ST and Cook WI projects are consistent with the Group’s production enhancement strategy to unlock value from the Anasuria Cluster. To this end, the Company had commissioned Leap Energy Partners Sdn Bhd (“Leap”) to undertake an independent evaluation of in-place and recoverable hydrocarbons in the Anasuria Cluster attributable to Anasuria Hibiscus UK. In a report dated 23 July 2018, Leap has stated that based on its evaluation, the proved and probable reserves (“2P Reserves”) net to Anasuria Hibiscus UK have been increased to 24.4 million bbls (“mmbbls”) as of 1 July 2018.

The 2P Reserves estimated by Leap represents a net increase of 4.2 mmbbls or 20.8% compared to 20.2 mmbbls projected by RPS Energy Consultants Limited (“RPS Energy”) as of 1 March 2016, after factoring Anasuria Hibiscus UK’s production to date from the asset. Anasuria Hibiscus UK has produced approximately 2.5 mmbbls of oil during the period since the acquisition of its interest in the Anasuria Cluster.

North Sabah: Production Operations:
The average uptime of 96% is consistent with performance in the Preceding Quarter, whilst the average oil production rate has marginally increased by approximately 4%. SEA Hibiscus will continue in its efforts to ensure a seamless integration of the North Sabah operations with the Company’s existing work processes and performance based operating culture. They also look forward towards identifying and implementing production optimization and enhancement initiatives via surface and subsurface activities in the near term.

Australia:
The fact that the Group has only limited access to capital means that investment related activities are prioritized, with those projects that deliver larger economic benefits being implemented ahead of those which promise lower levels of return. Given the expected capital requirements for low risk identified projects within the Anasuria Cluster, and potentially, further capital requirements for execution of projects in North Sabah, management may defer seeking a Final Investment Decision (“FID”) for its development offshore Australia for a minimum of three years in favour of more attractive investment options within their portfolio of opportunities.

Mission (2017 – 2021):
They have disclosed their business objectives for the period 2017 to 2021. These business goals are repeated herewith:
• 100 mmbbls net proven and probable oil reserves/entitlement in existing core asset areas; and,
• 20,000 bbls/day net production.
With the completion of the North Sabah transaction, the Group has achieved the total net production entitlements in the range of 40% to 50% of their 2021 mission. Net 2P reserves that have been achieved towards our 2021 mission are also in the same range. They anticipate the gap towards achieving their mission to be closed by developing identified opportunities within the assets that are in their portfolio and through new ventures on a selective basis.

Concluding Comments:
Whilst the Group has articulated its mission until 2021, they are pleased to have achieved several critical milestones that are key towards the successful delivery of this mission, which are:
• The safe execution of the P2-ST project is expected to result in incremental production to be realised starting from 1QFY19; and,
• Completion of the North Sabah transaction and ongoing integration of the North Sabah operations.
They believe that the achievement of these milestones coupled with a relatively stable crude oil price environment are positive value enhancing triggers for their shareholders. Barring unforeseen circumstances, they expect these factors to augur well for the Group’s performance in the next financial year.
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James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:

1) Gtronic (GLOBETRONICS TECHNOLOGY BHD), recommended on 8 Jul 18, initial price was RM2.17, rose to RM2.82 in 1 month 22 days, total return is 30%

2) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM0.86 in 18 days, total return is 20.3%

3) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM0.875 in 1 month 29 days, total return is 10.1%

4) PMETAL (PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDINGS BHD), recommended on 26 Aug 18, initial price was RM4.78, rose to RM4.98 in 4 days, total return is 4.5%

5) MATRIX (MATRIX CONCEPTS HOLDINGS BHD), recommended on 22 Jul 18, initial price was RM2.04, rose to RM2.11 in 1 month 8 days, total return is 3.4%

I wish to share my strategy to readers, hope that they can perform well after reading this. I am using Fundamental Analysis:

the forecasted growth of a company must > 14% per year

I wish to convince readers to learn FA in order to make money from stock market.


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