LORD's Day is here again
YES EVERYDAY IS THE LORD'S DAY. TODAY WE ARE IN APRIL 14, THE YEAR OF OUR LORD 2019/
BEFORE AD WAS BC (BC STANDS FOR BEFORE CHRIST) OUR WORLD'S DATING IS BASED ON JESUS' APPEARANCE BEFORE (BC) AND AFTER (AD)
Now let's listen to the Words of Jesus Christ
For which one of you, when he wants to build a tower, does not first sit down and calculate the cost to see if he has enough to complete it?
A "tower" is built in a vineyard to watch over the grapes or crops planted?.
A person who wishes to build a watch tower must first sit down and calculate
(before taking action and start building or investing) he must sit down then do his maths
What kind of maths?
calculate the cost to see if he has enough to complete it?
Ha! Simple as that!!
Enough money to finish the project? Enough reserves even if there is unknown factors?
Always have a margin of safety in mind
to see if he has enough to complete it?
In Singapore there is a very highly successful company called "HYFLUX" dealing with water desalination plant. It was so successful that Middle Eastern Countries gave jobs to Hyflux in year 2013. So Hyflux expanded there. But in year 2014 due to shale oil competition Crude oil prices crashed by 60% & Hyflux suffered.
Again Hyflux took up the Tuaspring Project of water desalination plus selling excess electrity to Singapore power grid. Buy again due to the collapse of oil and gas electricy sales became very cheap & Hyflux suffered losses again
To finance Tuaspring Hyflux borrowed from both banks & also gave out bonds to 34,000 investors with perpetual guaranteed interest payment of 6% for forever.
What people thought was safest now turned into a nightmare as Tuaspring caused Hyflux to be insolvent.
If only Hyflux stayed content & took up jobs that are manageable.
SO THIS TEACHES US ABOUT "COUNTING THE COST OF INVESTMENT" OR MARGIN OF SAFETY
CAN A COMPANY SURVIVE IF CRUDE OIL PRICES COLLAPSED?
THOSE THAT OVER BORROWED LIKE PERISAI, EZRA, SWIBOR, DAYA, ALAM, SUMATECH, BARAKAH, PERDANA & OTHERS WILL GO INTO TROUBLE WHEN OIL IS DOWN & PETRONAS SCALED BACK JOB AWARDS FROM YEAR 2015, 2016, 2017 & EARLY 2018
THOSE PRUDENT ONES WITH LESS DEBT & CLEAN BALANCE SHEET WILL SURVIVE
A COMPANY CAN SURVIVE AS LONG AS ITS CASH OR ASSETS DO NOT RUN OUT!
ONCE CASH CANNOT MEET EXPENSE THE COMPANY GOES INTO INSOLVENCY
BUT THOSE COMPANIES WITH HIGH NET ASSETS OF VALUE LIKE LANDS & PROPERTIES CAN SELL OR DISPOSE THESE FOR LIQUIDITY TO MEET DEBT OBLIGATIONS
THAT IS WHY BEN GRAHAM ALWAYS ADVOCATE BUYING STOCKS WITH AT LEAST 2/3 PRICE OF ASSET BACKING OR NTA
SAY NTA IS RM1.00.... A MARGIN OF SAFETY WOULD MEAN PAYING NO MORE THAN 70 SEN FOR IT
THE EXTRA 30% DISCOUNT IS A CALCULATED PROTECTION FROM UNKNOWN RISK
PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT INTO PAN-EL, ENRON, TRANSMILE, PERWAJA STEEL, EKRAN, PATIMAS, SAAG, MEGAN MEDIA AND OTHER FAILED ECTERPRISES HAVE LOST EVERYTHING BECAUSE THEY GONE BANKRUPT.
OVER 1,000 BANKS FAILED IN THE US DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION BECAUSE THEY GAVE LOANS TO STOCK MARGIN PLAYERS & FARMLANDS THAT WENT BUST
THOSE INNOCENT PEOPLE WHO PLACED ALL THEIR MONIES IN BANKS ALSO LOST EVERYTHING WITHOUT THEIR FAULT
ANY BANK WHO DOES NOT PRACTICE "THE MARGIN OF SAFETY" CAN ALSO GO BANKRUPT
BANKRUPT = BANK RUPTURED!! OR BROKEN
IN 1997/8 BEFORE THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS THERE WERE 49 BANKS & CREDIT INSTITUTIONS IN MALAYSIA
AFTER THAT ONLY 9 BANKS SURVIVED & MERGED
2) THE SECOND ILLUSTRATION IS SIMILAR TO THE FIRST
NOW YOU KNOW WHY CALVIN TAN RESEARCH AT THE VERY CORE ALWAYS PRATICE MARGIN OF SAFETY IN INVESTING
"SIT DOWN & CALCULATE" ---- FIND THE "MARGIN OF SAFETY"
"RETURN OF CAPITAL FIRST!! THEN ONLY THINK OF RETURN ON CAPITAL"
IN OTHER WORDS
"NEVER TO LOSE MONEY"
Calvin Tan Research