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 Despite what I professed earlier - to stay away from Malaysian politics - I must admit that I have failed. This thing keep roiling and turning in my head, and I'm here to share my 2-sen take on the current upheaval.

As I see it, the problems within the current Pakatan Harapan (“PH”) coalition are two-fold, namely the succession issue and the reformation agenda of the original component parties. Anwar is using both issues to try to pin down a date for transition, which Dr M rejects.

On the surface, Dr M seems to be able to work along with DAP and Amanah, and most of the PKR team. In my opinion, Dr M’s current grand move is to completely isolate Anwar within PKR and PH coalition. If Anwar is fully marginalized - thru defection from within PKR and rejection by DAP and Amanah - then Dr M may not want to go thru with a new ruling coalition known as the Pakatan Nasional (“PN”). He can continue to rule with the current coalition, without Anwar and his decimated number of supporters, and with or without the addition of new parties in the PH coalition. I see the addition of the Sarawakian parties to be a net positive development in the current turmoil as it would help to dose off the fire of those who are clamoring for greater regional autonomy. 

As such, I believe the demise of the PH coalition and the formation of the new ruling PN coalition, including PAS and UMNO, are a bit premature. I feel that way because it is a very bitter medicine to swallow, not only just by the people but also by Dr M on two ground. Firstly, it would involve Dr M’s turning his back to the mandate that brought him back to power. That mandate was a rejection of UMNO and what it represented- corruption and abuse of power. Thus, to form a government with UMNO now would be unacceptable to many. Dr M the maverick may not care much for such niceties in his early days of climbing to the top but the 94 years old Dr M might not want to do so today unless his hand is forced.

The second reason I feel that a ruling PN coalition is still not a done deal, is simply because it is too extreme. It involves the rejection of DAP, and by extension, the Chinese community since DAP has the solid support of the entire Chinese community. This is the same community that has heeded Dr M’s call in 1999 and again in 2018. The rejection of the Chinese community will lead to the formation of an essentially Malay government which will put the nation down the road of even more racial politics. That's not something which Dr M would like to leave as his legacy.

In my opinion, the next few days will be crucial in determining the outcome of the current political imbroglio. If my view holds true, the political situation would return to normal (what’s normal these days?!) once the succession issue has been resolved. Those stocks that were sold down sharply this round, will rebound back.

http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2020/02/malaysian-politics-art-of-possible-and.html
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