A much needed power plant in Vietnam
1,200MW Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant
As reported in a Vietnam news .........
EVN gears up to meet growing power supply for the dry season | 30/05/2020
"An EVN report shows that in the first two months, the electricity output and import of its whole system reached 57.29 billion kWh, an increase of 6.3 percent compared to the same period in 2019. Compared to the same period, hydroelectric output reached 8.93 billion kWh, down 30.4 percent, gas thermoelectricity reached 9.46 billion kWh, down 15.9 percent, coal thermoelectricity mobilized 33.91 billion kWh, up 21.3 percent, and oil thermoelectricity mobilized 1.02 billion kWh, up nearly 1 billion kWh. Renewable energy mobilized 2.76 billion kWh, of which solar power reached 2.31 billion kWh, an increase of 28 times over the same period in 2019. The total electricity output of EVN in the first quarter was estimated at 49.28 billion kWh, up 6.47 percent over the same period last year.
According to EVN’s calculations, the electricity demand in the dry months in the second quarter of 2020 is expected to rise 5.7 percent over the same period last year. With the system load capable of reaching 750 million kWh per day, the system’s highest capacity can reach 41,000MW.
EVN will not only make the most of coal thermoelectricity resource and gas turbines according to the fuel supply capacity, and at the same time exploit hydroelectricity to ensure lowlands’ water supply, but will also mobilize oil-fired thermoelectricity according to the load’s mode and demand. Moreover, EVN requires units to ensure coal resources for thermoelectricity plants, especially those at the Vinh Tan and Duyen Hai power centers, to meet the mobilization needs of the system."
A report by Fitch Solutions ..........
Coal to remain key in Vietnam power expansion, 04 March 2020
"Fitch Solutions has released a report that shows an expectation of Vietnam's power expansion to continue being largely driven by coal, despite increasing pressures on the fuel source recently.
Vietnam is facing looming threats of power shortages over the coming years, given an expected surge in power demand, and has in fact been trying to fast-track the development of some of these projects since 2019. It is clear that the government is prioritising the development of the power sector in general to support the country’s strong economic growth.
Coal remains the most practical option in the near-term to stimulate affordable electricity generation growth at the pace and scale needed by the country, given its affordability, accessibility and reliability.
In the short-term, there are also limited alternatives that the country can use to ramp up power generation capacity substantially. Vietnam's power generation has been traditionally dominated by natural gas-fired power and hydropower but Fitch sees several obstacles to growth in the short-term.
Hydropower: hydropower potential has already been almost fully exploited at present, and hydropower generation output reliability is further threatened by lower rainfalls and a series of abnormal weather patterns in recent years. Many major hydropower dams have seen historic low water levels in 2019, as low as 20 - 30% of capacity, and were in fact being forced to shut down.
Natural gas: domestic gas reserves are depleting and have also seen output reductions in recent years. While there is some scope to boost LNG-to-power projects, a rebound in gas-fired generation will likely only occur from 2023, as the first LNG terminal comes into operation. This is also contingent on global gas prices remaining low.
Non-hydro renewables: while Vietnam is seeing substantial growth (and opportunities) in renewables capacity, Fitch stresses that the intermittent nature of wind and solar power coupled with an underdeveloped grid capacity remains a bottleneck to generation growth at present. For example, the rapid build out of renewable projects in Ninh Thun and Bình Thun has caused grid overload and renewables curtailment in recent months, and some wind and solar plants were forced to reduce their output.
As such, Fitch expects thermal capacity in Vietnam to continue seeing robust growth, adding a net capacity of approximately 15 GW by 2025 from end-2019, and another 4.8 GW by 2029, with coal being the main driver of this expansion. Fitch does stress that its forecasts remain conservative as a fraction of those in the pipeline, as Fitch has already accounted for project realisation risks. Coal projects that are at the highest risk of derailing are those that use less efficient technologies, located in provinces with high renewables penetration, and those that have yet to achieve a final investment decision and financial close."
And in Financial Times .............
Vietnam power crunch threatens future economy, 23 Sept 2019
"Vietnam’s government is scrambling to head off an impending energy crunch that threatens to bring blackouts within two years and hamper the near-term future of one of Asia’s fastest growing economies.
Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has warned that power shortages could come as soon as 2021, and ordered other officials to speed up stalled plant projects.
At stake is the future of an economy that relies on energy-intensive manufacturing, and which is drawing a surge of new international interest because it is seen as a refuge from, and beneficiary of, the US-China trade war. "
By the end of 2019, Vietnam had a total installed capacity of 55.94 GW comprising coal (36.2%), hydropower (30.3%), oil & gas (16.2%) and renewables (9.64%). 20.25GW coal capacity is NOT capable of delivering 33.91 billion kWh in the first 2 months of 2020. Excess coal thermoelectricity could be supplied by neighbouring countries. This means that coal power plants in Vietnam were operating at full capacity in early 2020.
State-owned utility EVN has set a target to increase generated and purchased power output this year by 8.9pc compared with 2019 to 251.62TWh. The company's total power supplies, including its own generation and power that it purchased, reached 231.1TWh last year, an increase of 8.85pc from 2018.
JHDP is a top priority power project in Northern Vietnam because of its location within the key economic zone between Hanoi and Hai Phong. The electricity distribution system in northern vietnam is divided between power generation centers and the demand centers. The main demand centers are Hanoi and Hai Phong, while generation lies in the North-East (coal, mainly around Quang Ninh) and North-West (hydropower). This places a lot of constraints on the power flows through the distribution cables which were often overloaded duing peak. The intermediate location of Hai Duong within the economic zone eases distribution load of the main transmission lines.
Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant, a much needed source of electricity power, will commence operation in the next few months to ease Vietnam's power crunch.
Thank you for reading !