Between FY10 to FY16, Mercury Industries has always been able to deliver a profit of between RM5mil to RM6mil annually backed by the current construction business (under Paramount Bounty) and the now disposed paint manufacturing business (under Silverlight Prospects). In general, both businesses would have contributed an almost similar amount of profit to the Group year on year.
In FY17, the company decided to focus more on its construction business and sold off Silverlight Prospects for a gain of disposal amounting to RM9mil. The decision to focus on construction was mainly due to the high prospects from big government projects. This backfire when the company fails to deliver any meaningful profit growth since the disposal and seems to be stuck in an industry that is now in a declining period (given the government decision to review, delay or cancel most of the big project under the previous administration).
For 9m18 the company had only managed to deliver a profit of RM1.8mil, which is less than half of 9m17 profit of RM3.8mil (excluding profit from discontinue business and gain on disposal). Assuming the company will end FY18 with RM2.5mil profit, at the current share price the company would be valued at 15.2x PE which is a bit high given that the average PE for construction companies are now below 10x.
If you are looking to diversify your portfolio outside of Mercury Industries (due to its weak earnings outlook and relatively high valuation), I would recommend you to look at MBMR.
MBMR is a direct proxy to Perodua via its 22.6% interest in the company. Valuation is cheap at only 6.9x PE (based on target FY18 profit of RM145mil. 9m profit is already RM106mil). PB is low at only 0.7x BV. 4Q18 results is expected to be higher than 3Q18 and last year's 4Q17.
FY19 growth will be driven by the still high demand of the new Myvi and the newly launched SUV Aruz and also the newly revamp Alza in 2H19. The recent announcement of closure and potential disposal of the loss-making alloy wheel manufacturing business alone is expected to boost the company’s profit by an additional RM20mil. I am projecting a profit to shareholder of RM170 mil for FY19 which at the current price values MBMR at only 5.9x PE.
Please go through the analyst reports (https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/pt/5983.jsp) and do your own analysis before making any decisions. There are 8 analysts in total covering the stock with most of them having a TP of above RM3 (all have a buy rating). The average TP for the 8 analysts is around RM3.50.
Good luck.
