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 Hi guys,

Right now many are shivering in fear of uncertain market crash due to malaysia political impasse & us dow jones nov 2020 electiom

Mark mobius even said that if trump lost us market might crash

Mark mobius warns of a crash if trump loses in 2020
By mohit oberoi, cfa

Mark mobius warns of a crash

Mark mobius has warned of a market crash if president donald trump isn’t reelected in 2020. Speaking with cnbc, mobius said, “I think the markets then will go haywire because they’ve been depending on trump policies to keep on pushing the market up and also higher growth rate in the u.S.” while mobius doesn’t think trump will lose the election, he said that media is “overwhelmingly” against trump.



What does calvin think?

No problem if you know what to buy

And these will survive market crashes after market crashes

Palm oil stocks!!  All of them if their cycle is in uptrend


Let me relate my experience by quoting real life examples

Mr liew of helang camar used car plus owner of palm oil plantations in sabah

In year 1997/8 when many businesses (inclluding mr. Liew's) were wiped out during the asian finacial market crash he did extremely well because of his plantations in sabah. Cpo prices were then at all time high

And he did a roaring business in selling palm fresh fruit bunches

See my writeup
Importance of diversification,

See full article https://www.Eaglevisioninvest.Com/the-importance-of-diversification-calvin-tan-this-is-a-3rd-posting-to-warn-about-black-swan-event/
Posted on june 22, 2013 by calvin tan

Ecclesiastes 11:2  ” divide your investments  into seven , or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth   (nasb)”.

In other words, don’t put all your eggs in the same basket. Because when the basket falls down, all the eggs will be broken together. That means total loss!

Image result for pictures of eggs in one basket

3) mr. Liew of helang camar   hailed from sabah. He started his used car dealership in kl before the asian financial crisis of 1997/98. His used car business thrived in 1993-early 1997. He told me he still have half of his capital tied in the oil palm plantation lands in sabah. He wanted to sell off his plantation and put all the  capital into the booming car business. I advised him not to do it.

Then the asian financial crisis struck in end 1997. He told me his accumulated profits for 3 years were wiped out within 3 short months. And he is staring at further losses from unsold stock of cars. However, his oil palm fruit bunches were fetching good prices. So his losses were cushioned by the booming palm oil prices.

By  may 2001 (4 years later) the used car market fully recoverrd and he was doing well once again. However, palm oil prices crashed below production cost!  The cost of fertilizer, worker’s wages and  overhead costs is more than the actual selling price of palm fruits. Trees were left idle, fertilizer sold back to supplier & workers retrenched. With the downturn of palm oil prices he concentrated his energy on the used car business.

You see, it is important to diversify investments since we cannot see the future.


Calvin comments:

3) this is the most important lesson of all. Mr. Liew from tawau bought those oil palm lands for only rm500 an acre in those days. In year 1993 he sold half his plantations and moved to kl & started a used car company in kajang called helang camar. The timing was impecabble as he was in the midst of the gogo years before the asian financial crisis of 1997/8.

Times were great and he was doing a roaring business. Monies kept rolling in and piling up! He was so happy with the fast pace of money making in kl compared to the slow snail and dull business of tending oil palm plantations in sabah.

He wanted to sell off the other half of his slow moving oil palm business in tawau, sabah and put all his capital into kl’s car business. This was in year 1996 – near the very peak of the boom!

At this time used car dealers would make multiple bookings for new proton & perodua cars. Some booked 50 units & some booked in hundreds. Waiting list for cars stretched from 4 months for a proton wira to as long as one year wait for a new proton perdana!

To get hold of a new proton perdana then you have to pay as much as  “rm10,000” extra! To get one. Such was the extremely over heated market of the gogo years.

I was happy to have warned him not to do so as the future is unknown (asian financial crisis arrived in 1997 just one short year away)

And when the asian financial crisis struck! All the 3 years of accumulate profits that mr. Liew made were wiped out in just 3 short months! At that time a proton iswara 1.3 worth rm33,000 before the crisis could crash 50% to only rm16,500 (50% value wiped off in just months)

So many gone bankrupt with the twin collapse of klse (crash from a high of 1332 to its lowest at 262 points) & all assets (houses, cars, businesses – everything fell like tent pins in unison.) there was no escape but facing total lost and imminent bankruptcies for all those who over leveraged.

It was during these dark and  bleak times that oil palms gave him solace. And to his surprice cpo prices shot up! And lifted him from his gloom and compensate his losses in his used car business.

As the us has still not resolved its problems & the world still awashed in crude  oil it behoves us to go defensive & diversify our investments as future is still unknown.

I hope all i3 fellow forumers will be careful with your investments.

Always remember, return of capital is more important than return on capital

Next article:

Palm oil - the investment that separates billionaires from millionaires!
May 20, 2017 by calvin tan smart investment

The year was 1996. The asian stock markets  were in the hottest euphoria. Amost every one was enjoying increasing profits. Many have resigned from their jobs to do full time trading in the stock market. Stock market tips and conversations were the order of the day. Everywhere in offices, homes, coffee shops, markets, eating places people talked only about the next “limit up” stocks.

In every trading hall or room there is no available seats. In rhb bank hq there isn’t even standing room. Cramped, jammed and packed with traders and specualtors from all walks of life. It was the gogo years before the asian financial crisis!

One man stood out. Peter lim of singapore. He sold all his shares near the very peak and bought into just one counter – wilmar the plantation stock.

On hindsight it was an uncanny but very accurate move. Next year in july 2nd 1997 george soros attacked the thai bath. The thai bath collapsed and then contagion spread to malaysia, singapore, hk, korea, indonesia – one by one their stock markets collapsed like tent pins.

At the height klse was 1332 and at the bottom it was only 262 points – a crash of 81%

Nobody fully invested could have escaped such a carnage. It was a disaster for many. Tens of thousands went bankrupt.  Many banks & financial institutions were insolvent. Before the asian financial crisis there were 49 banks and credit companies in malaysia. With  the devastating carnage less than 10 banks now standing. The rest became history.

Tycoon peter lim  invested $10 millions into wilmar – the plantation stock owned by robert kuok.

How come peter was so “chun chun”?  All $10 millions into one single stock. And he was right on target. Four years later in 2,000 peter lim “the remisier king” of singapore sold his wilmar shares for a cool $1.5 billions!

So plantation stock investment if timed well can make you a billionaire!

As for robert kuok he became the richest  man no. One in all of malaysia with over rm40 billions.

Ha! Are we now entering another phase of market doom? Maybe yes or maybe no.

But this is for sure:

A powerful el nino is now ongoing


Let’s see if plantation stocks will create more millionaires and billionaires this round.



Calvin tan

Additional comments:

The above article was first published in i3 investors forum on january 2016



For mr. Liew it was prosperity in crisis. But for tycoon peter lim he found a huge fortune in wilmar when markets collapsed all over the place

Palm oil then was their deliverance

Will palm oil stocks once again prove itself as a worth help in a time of crisis & need like now?

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