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今天和我拍档聊起我如何分析。我说我是看一碗云吞面来决定一件事。我吃下一碗云吞面就能够决定是否投资。这并不是我没有想法或过于急促地决定,恰恰相反。这需要年复一年的训练,分析,经验以及对自己的信心才能做到,毕竟要在一碗云吞面吃完就需要综合所有的分析并不是一件容易的事。而这也意味着我比较喜欢看大局而不是单一因素或逻辑分析去决定是否进行投资,毕竟投资是一件很需要大局观的行为。

举个例子,一家公司的原材料价格在世界市场 下降 了。逻辑分析下,这家公司的赚幅应该有所增加,从而盈利 和 股价上也应该向上。但是直觉告诉我并不是这么一件事。当原材料价格降低,是否意味着公司的竞争对手也能够有更多资源去攻占市场?又或者,公司的供应商又是否与公司签订了合约?公司是否又会把多余的赚幅重新投放进去行销从而提高市场份额?

单单靠逻辑,数学家将会成为最杰出的投资者。只有逻辑和反向思维是不够的。这需要靠直觉。就好比一辆汽车,直觉就好像在汽车外观察汽车的行使,能够看到前方的路洞从而避开。当你知道你讲在哪里出事,就避开那里。若只单单盯着方向盘或车镜,是无法看到前方的路洞的。

I have a little chat with my partner today. When asked how do I analyse, I answered, it is through Wanton Mee. Yes, I analyse things through a Wanton mee, which takes only half an hour to eat. It meant that my judgement rely more on the intuition rather than logical thinking. It doesn't meant that logical play no role. Logical built in is important, but more important is how it works and what is behind those logics. It is systematically built in years after years of thinking rationally and observation.

The prime example. The raw material price of a company went down in world market. Logically thinking would dictate that it would increase profit margin and thus increase its profit and its share price. But intuition tells me that might not be the case. As raw material price went down, will the competitors also benefited from it and have more leverage to fight a price war? Would the raw material be determined not by the company or the world market but by pre-existing agreement with supplier? How would the company reacted by spending more on the marketing to capture market share rather than earning more profits?

It is not sufficient to have counter thinking. It is intuition. It is a backward thinking that allows me to see through the road ahead while the car is driving forward, imagining you are sitting back outside the car. If you know where you gonna die, just don't go there. If you can see the pothole in front of you, just don't go there. You don't see the pothole by looking at your steering or your rear mirror.

#quantumleappartners

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