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Emerging countries often grow in torrid streaks, only to fall into major crises that wipe out all their gains.

That is why among the nearly 200 economies currently tracked by IMF, only 40 have reached the "developed class".  

  • The last to make it was South Korea, two decades ago.
  • The rest are emerging, and most have been emerging forever.  

Economic trends are impermanent; churn and crisis are the norm.

All the rules aim, one way or another, to capture the delicate balances of debt, investment, inflation, currency values and other key factors required to keep an economy growing steadily faster than its peers

These are the basic principles.  Remember that economic trends are impermanent; churn and crisis are the norm.  

Recognize that any economy, no matter how successful or how broken, is more likely to return to the long-term average growth rate for its income class than to remain abnormally hot or cold indefinitely.

Watch for balanced growth and focus on a manageable set of dynamic indicators that make it possible to anticipate turns in the economic cycle.  


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