Periods of healthy credit growth bear no psychological resemblance to the extreme exuberance of manias or the extreme caution or fear of debts (debtophobia).
The health of the credit system in 2008
When the global financial crisis hit in 2008, countries like the United States were vulnerable because they had been running up debt too fast.
In Southeast Asia, however, the opposite story was unfolding. Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines had manageable debt burdens and strong banks ready to lend, with total loans less than 89% of deposits.
Over the next 5 years, post 2008, the health of the credit system would prove crucial:
- nations such as Spain and Greece, which had seen the sharpest increase in debt before 2008, would post the slowest growth after the crisis;
- nations such as the Philippines and Thailand, which had seen the smallest increase in debt during the boom, would fare the best.
How the credit cycle works in brief
Rising debt can be a sign of health growth, unless debt is growing much faster than the economy for too long.
The size of the debt matters, but the pace of increase is the most important sign of change for the better or the worse.
The first signs of trouble often appear in the private sector, where credit manias tend to originate.
The psychology of a debt binge encourages lending mistakes and borrowing excesses that will retard growth and possibly lead to a financial crisis.
The crisis can inspire a healthy new caution, or a paralyzing fear of debt (debtophobia).
Either way, the period of retrenchment usually lasts only a few years (usually 4 to 5 years). #
The country emerges with lower debts, bankers ready to lend, and an economy poised to grow rapidly.
Additional notes:
# On average, credit and economic growth remained weak for about four to five years.
In Asia, credit fell in the five years after 1997 by at least 40 percentage points as a share of the GDP in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. But within about four years, the gloom had started to lift as debts fell, government deficits declined, and global prices for the region's commodity exports rose. Credit growth picked up, and the average GDP growth rate in these three Southeast Asian economies rose from around 4% between 1999 and 2002 to nearly 6% between 2003 and 2006.
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