After a year-ish of Coronavirus outbreak, we all know that COVID19 will not end or disappear, but it'll be just like other diseases (think Chicken-pox, Shingles, Influenza A) where vaccine provides a shield or protection to the majority of the population. Some of the virus like small pox or measles have been rare in community after 30-50 years of vaccination programme. Hence, it's childish for us to think that COVID19 is going to go away just like that after the vaccine is being rolled out.
One of the countries which I admire for their technology advancement and survival despite going through never-ending wars - Israel, which Malaysia does not have diplomatic ties with is currently the leader in COVID19 vaccination. As of today (7th Feb 2021), at least 60% of their targeted population have received at least 1 dose of vaccine. I must state that I am not a supporter of Israel but from the viewpoint of a secular and science person, they did very well in many aspects. In this pandemic, the disease outbreak control was not that spectacular but hats off to their vaccination programme. By May 2021, all of their eligible population will be vaccinated.
|A chart of current COVID-19 vaccination status (per 100 people or percentage if you divide by 100)|
To know what it will be like post COVID19 vaccination, we will take a glimpse into Israel's early data (please take note that both Modena and Pfizer mRNA's vaccine which is deemed more superior and newer technology requires 2 doses of vaccine, with the vaccination date 14-21 days apart. It is also mentioned that full protection or benefit should be realized only after a month after the first dose and if you follow up with the 2nd dose). Even with the rapid Israel vaccination, at the end of 1st week of Feb 2021, we know that barely 1/3 of Israel's population fall into the category. However, they are starting to see some benefits like drop in severe illness, hospitalizations, new cases and mortality.
Remember in November, I posted an article on how will COVID19 end? With the Israel roll out of the vaccine to its mass population, it's time for us to look out for:
1. Transmissivity of COVID19 post vaccination. By March or April we should see Israel's COVID19 cases drop at least two-third (2/3).
2. Mortality rate of COVID19 - vaccines 'teach' our body to learn how to fight Coronavirus. Hence, after vaccination, we should see mortality rate of COVID19 to be less than half of what it is in Israel today.
3. Benchmark number of cases vs Israel's mobility (available in Google) . We should see the cases coming down slowly and mobility of Israel's population increases.
1. It is the first country in the world to have completed its full COVID19 vaccination.
2. We can see the change of human behaviour post vaccination. It's not just about humans moving around but the confidence of the vaccinated population going around without catching another bout of COVID19.
3. Recovery of economy and local travel which is essential in rebuilding local economies should be seen. Tourism which is the worse-hit sector should see some improvements.