看人先看相,看价先看量
作者:胡立阳
沪深两市的成交量可以直接看出市场人气是否旺盛,场外观望的资金是否进场或是增量进场。如果量能持续萎缩,象当下的股市,投资人就该轻仓操作甚至离场观望。常常听到地量地价的说法,但现实的走势总是在不断的忽悠着投资者,地量之后还有地量,地价之后还有瀑布(跳水)!在市场方向不明朗,资金老是在场外徘徊却不积极进场的情况下,投资还需谨慎。
行情在大涨大跌之后总会出现一段时间的牛皮盘整理局面,许多个股就像是被胶水粘住了一般,动弹不得。上不去,却又下不来,老在区间震荡。空仓的人捡不到便宜,满仓的人也赚不到差价,真是烦透所有人。你或许从未想过,股价大涨或是大跌的时间其实并不长,反倒是牛皮市在整体股市当中竟占去了一半以上的时间,就便是说股市其实有一半以上的时间都处于牛皮盘整的状态,我们必须学会适应!
一个健康的股市,其价和量总是配合良好,量升价涨;倘若指数在数天内涨上一两百点,看似有转机,而成交量却天天减少,这便是短期重压力位的先兆,如近期上证连续两次攻击2930点,但量能不够,兵力不足,只好无功而返,这也是当初笔者2900点上方先卖出股票的原因之一。反之,当指数开始走稳,量持续放大,这代表市场多头攻击欲望强烈,正在摇旗呐喊,希望市场其他资金能够尾随,攻破上方城池。无量的市场只有一条出路:久盘必跌;只有温和增量,在关键性的压力位,放量突破有效占领城池,如当下上证的2930点,主力资金如增量到1000亿,最好是温和放量2到3天,然后千亿过顶,那余下的山头占领只是时间的问题,至少我们尾随介入可以做到短期内很好的价差,这个时间段赚个10%-20%风险自然就来得小的多!如果真出现量能如此放大,奥运行情才是可期的!财神爷来了,别把他推出门来!
当前上证的股指底部在逐步抬高,看似貌美如花,量却不能有效放大,还需谨慎。以抬高的底部为支撑点算,2770点将是短期重要支撑,如果2770点多方失守,将面临再次跳水的可能性极大。事情必有两面,激进型投资人在明天或将是比较好的抢短线反弹买点。(关于大盘的分析判断就基于政策面无重大变化的情况下,毕竟国家主席只有一个,央行行长也只有一个,可惜都不是我)
学会看量,就如同做为一名医生就得会给病患把脉。量能持续萎缩,就好比一个人身体出现某些疾病前,往往会先发烧!许多知名的操盘手都是看量做起,他们也不赌哪里是低点,他们也不曾妄想自己买到998点,况且大资金并不是一两天就能建仓完成的。更何况做为普通投资人,拿着自己辛苦赚来的血汗钱,可别在赌博大盘最低在某某点位而重仓进场。
看人先看相,看价先看量,你明白了吗?
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