还看美国股市? 今年要留意中国股市了
(图:法新社)
(香港26日综合电)《华尔街日报》报道,中国股市2021年表现糟糕。今年的状况可能会好一些,这在很大程度上是因为中国政府似乎终于准备放松一些当初带来冲击的严厉举措。联储局立场日益紧缩之际,在市场上寻求适当多样化的美国投资者不妨把目光投向东方。
追踪中国市场的指数2022年取得良好开端:MSCI明晟中国指数今年迄今上涨2.5%,同期标普500指数则下跌7.7%。由于投资者认为联储局可能比几周前看起来更早更快加息,美国股市遭受沉重打击。
据高盛分析,从历史上看,中国股市在联储局紧缩周期的早期通常表现不佳。但这一次,在大多数主要经济体中行收紧政策的背景下,中国中行可能反向而行。自2021年底以来,中国人民银行已经开始加大力度放松政策。上周,该中行下调了几项关键贷款利率,包括一个通常用于房贷的利率。
这表明中国政府的政策重心正在转变:从去年年中开始,房地产市场低迷对经济构成严重拖累,中国政府感到越来越不安。中国一直在减少流向房地产行业的信贷,以遏制中国恒大集团等开发商草率扩张积累的巨额杠杆。
中国政府对互联网科技行业的广泛监管打击是去年中国股市大跌的另一个关键因素。2021年,MSCI明晟中国指数重挫23%,同期标普500指数大涨27%。2021年,指数权重较大的阿里巴巴市值缩水近一半,科技巨头腾讯控股股价也大跌19%。
根据高盛的数据,MSCI明晟中国指数目前基于未来12个月预期利润的本益比为12.1倍,略低于5年平均水平。毫无疑问,科技股的跌势拉低了该指数估值,但其他行业股票的估值也已下降。
诚然,许多因素仍给前景蒙上阴影。中国政府对科技行业的监管行动尚未结束。政策放松可能会利好整体房地产市场,但许多开发商的财务状况仍然严峻。Omicron疫情则构成另一种风险,特别是对消费而言,因为中国或在现行防疫措施基础上进一步加强限制,以维持“动态清零”策略。
不过,经过了去年的大幅跳水,加之更宽松的中行立场构成新利好,中国股市可能已守得云开见月明。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220126/%E9%82%84%E7%9C%8B%E7%BE%8E%E5%9C%8B%E8%82%A1%E5%B8%82%EF%BC%9F/
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