笑到最后才是赢 专家:熊市进场10年赚328%
(纽约23日讯)近几个月来,美股徘徊在修正区域附近。3月14日,以科技股为主的纳斯达克指数陷入熊市(较前波高点下跌20%),反映俄乌战争及联储局准备激进升息,令金融市场有如惊弓之鸟。但专家呼吁,以历史统计来看,在熊市期间进场,有很高机率获得丰厚收益,建议投资人逢低布局。
《福布斯》杂志报导,全球地缘政治局势剑拔弩张,股市要往哪里走,尚在暧昧不明阶段,几乎不可能精准预测市场反转点。但根据历史数据,在熊市期间买股的投资人往往能获得正报酬,原因是熊市告一段落后,反弹行情通常会超过1年,甚至长达10年。
Ritholtz财富管理公司机构资产管理总监卡尔森在知名财经部落格「致富的常识」(A Wealth of Common Sense)发文称:❝在股市处于熊市时进场,通常是很好的策略。❞
卡尔森以数据佐证,每当纳指落入熊市,1年后平均报酬率为22%、3年后为52%、5年后为87%,10年后平均报酬率达328%。
Nationwide投资研究部主管哈克表示,上周股市反弹显示投资人转向乐观心态,市场重新聚焦基本面,为熊市转变为牛市做好准备。
尽管联储局升息和俄乌冲突的不确定性持续存在,摩根大通仍看好今年美股再发动攻势,有望较目前水平上涨10%。
量化金融分析公司Quant Insight分析主管罗拔斯也对俄乌战争期间的美股表现持乐观态度,理由是俄乌战争对欧陆造成空前压力,较不受战争影响的美国市场将更受青睐。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220323/%E7%AC%91%E5%88%B0%E6%9C%80%E5%90%8E%E6%89%8D%E6%98%AF%E8%B5%A2-%E4%B8%93%E5%AE%B6%EF%BC%9A%E7%86%8A%E5%B8%82%E8%BF%9B%E5%9C%BA10%E5%B9%B4%E8%B5%9A328/
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