美股何处是底? 华尔街老将:标普还会大跌35%
美股 NYSE
(纽约30日讯)没有多少行家会对标普500指数重挫35%的预测一笑而过,但浸淫华尔街60载的老将乔治·鲍尔却表示,即使跌这么多也不过是正常的调整。
鲍尔是总部位于休斯敦的投资公司Sanders Morris Harris的董事长。他预测1月攀上纪录高位4796点的标普500指数会在3100点触底。虽然他表示暴跌会令人不安,但他并不认为这种前景过于悲观,部分原因是股市在疫情初期触底后又大幅上涨。
“我们都喜欢从高位倒数,但这没有任何意义,”鲍尔在接受电话采访时说,“这是涨幅的侵蚀,而不是可怕损失的积累。跌到3100点是一种相当正常的周期性调整,可以抹掉经济刺激带来的和心理上的过度上涨。”
他表示,今年以来市场人气偏向低迷,利润率可能成为下一只掉下的鞋。鲍尔说,企业财报将成为未来的关注点,特别是因为分析师实质性下调预测的动作迟缓。
随着美联储激进加息应对40年来最热的通胀,标普指数今年以来已经下跌了逾20%。央行更鹰派的紧缩路径,加上对财测下调的预期,是鲍尔看跌标普指数的主要原因。
“我相信美联储在抑制通胀上比赢得政治欢心上更为坚定,而且会比我和其他人一个月前预计得更加坚定,”鲍尔说。
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