银河-联昌:2023年料再升息2次至3.25%
(吉隆坡30日讯)由于通胀压力持续存在,银河-联昌证券预计,2023年隔夜政策利率(OPR)将从目前的2.75%,上调25个基点两次,至3.25%。
经济学家Nazmi Idrus今日在报告中指出,11月强劲的核心通胀增长反映当月强劲的国内需求。
“我们认为,这支持国家银行持续的利率正常化,因国行在11月的声明中明确警告,通胀压力可能会持续到2023年。”
我国11月消费者物价指数(CPI)按月增长0.3%,按年则上涨4%,高于银河-联昌和彭博社的预测。
同时,核心通胀按月和按年分别增0.4%和4.2%,主要由食品和酒店与餐馆组别所推动。
银河-联昌表示,政府对肉鸡价格、汽油和过路费等干预,将在短期内部分遏制通胀。
然而,非家庭和非中小型企业(低用电量)用户的电费将于1月23日调涨,预计将导致整体通胀上升。
“我们的计算显示,2023年1月通胀可能按年上涨10个基点,因全国大约60%的电力用户是非家庭用户,而当中60%是非中小型企业。”
该机构指出,电力在通胀篮子的权重为2.7%,但次轮效应可能略大。
总体而言,银河-联昌维持2023年通胀按年增长3%的预测,较2022年的3.3%较为温和。
(编译:陈慧珊)
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/650021
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