ASPs to drop even as glove demand stays up post-pandemic — AmInvestment Bank
KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 12): AmInvestment Bank believes that while glove demand will stay stable post-Covid-19 pandemic, average selling prices (ASPs) will drop as there will no longer be a rush for gloves.
“We reckon that ASP will stabilise at a higher level than pre-pandemic level due to the broader usage of gloves,” it said in a note on Top Glove Corp Bhd today.
The research house’s analyst Thong Pak Leng said it believed that glove demand will remain strong, based on reasons outlined by Top Glove during a webinar, which include a higher awareness of personal hygiene and broader use of gloves beyond the healthcare sector.
In addition, Thong said there may not be an oversupply of gloves after the pandemic, as Top Glove had pointed out that there are key issues in ramping up supply that need to be addressed, including the availability of contractors to build production lines, the shortage of foreign workers and constraint of nitrile raw material.
Top Glove has also allocated 30% of its capacity for spot orders. “The spot orders for nitrile glove have been fully sold for the next three months. Meanwhile, the spot orders for natural rubber powder-free gloves are also increasing due to the long lead time of nitrile gloves,” said Thong.
Presently, Top Glove has a total production capacity of 90 billion pieces per annum.
To expand further, Top Glove has allocated capital expenditure of RM10 billion over the next five years for capacity expansion to double its current capacity by the end of 2025, said Thong. This will be done in stages whereby 14 billion pieces will be added for FY21 and 16 billion for FY22.
AmInvestment Bank maintains its "hold" call on the stock with a lower fair value of RM7.88, adding that the group’s fundamentals remain solid for the next few years.
“We maintain our view that Top Glove’s net profit will peak in FY21 as demand soars from the Covid-19 pandemic with increased capacity expansions. We make no changes to our FY21–FY23 net profit forecasts at RM6.5 billion, RM2.3 billion and RM2.2 billion respectively.
“Our ASP assumptions are US$60 per 1,000 pieces for FY21, US$35 per 1,000 pieces for FY22 and US$28 per 1,000 pieces for FY23 with an average utilisation rate of more than 80%,” said Thong.
Top Glove is currently fourth on Bursa’s top losers list, having fallen 19 sen or 2.42% to RM7.67. The stock is currently valued at RM62.34 billion.