As you all know, the KLCI is striking the historical high and investors
have to be more careful in their stock selection. You should be a net
seller and do not buy any share unless it is really undervalued. Do not
take unnecessary risk.
My reason for writing this is to satisfy my own ego which is my
greatest weakness. Another reason is to do some charity by teaching you
how to make money from the stock market. In fact, almost all my wealth
is from the stock market. I am not a professional analyst and I have
nothing to gain if you buy or not. I am aware that I will have no place
to hide if you buy it at the current price level of around RM 2.00 and
you lose some money.
There are so many criteria for stock selection. Most professional
analysts consider the current earning is most important because it is so
difficult to predict the future. That is why they are not interested to
buy JT now as it is not showing much profit because most of the palms
are young. I prefer to accumulate slowly when Fund Managers are not
Reasons to own Jaya Tiasa shares
1. Jaya Tiasa’s major business is timber and plywood. After cutting
down the timber, they started planting oil palms in 2002 aggressively.
They have planted about 62,000 ha. The average age of their palms are
about 5/6 years old. That is why the company is not showing much profit
and professional fund managers are not interested. As a result the price
has been depressed for almost one year. The current price has formed a
base and it is safe to buy it. In fact about one year ago, the company
place out 15% of the total issued shares at RM 7.90 before the bonus
issue of 2 for every one held. That means the big fund managers have
bought the shares at RM 2.63 per share.
See below price chart:
2. If you look at the FFB production / palm age chart below, you can
see there will be sustainable FFB production growth over the next 10
years. Among all the criteria for stock selection, sustainable
production/profit growth prospect is the most important. When the palm
is 4 years old it can produce 7.7 tons of FFB per ha and when it is 10
years old it can produce 27.2 tons. That means it has a production
growth rate of about 3.5 times in 6 years. What business can offer you
such growth rate?
That is why most of the older plantation companies are cash rich. The
younger companies, like JT has to use their cash for the construction of
mills and expand their plantation area.
3. The whole plantation sector is so depressed due to its prolong weak
CPO price. Like any commodity CPO price will recover. If you look at the
5 years price chart below, you can imagine that it will sooner or later
recover. Always buy when people are fearful!
4. Palm oil is largely grown in Indonesia and Malaysia. Fortunately it
cannot be grown in China, India and US or EU. Due to continuous
population and economic growth, there will be increasing demand for
eatable oil. There is absolutely no good reason why soya bean oil is
selling at a higher price than palm oil when it is proven that it is not
superior to palm oil. Please read my recent article on the Fight the Smear Campaign against Palm Oil.
5. As reported, the price of timber and plywood has increased by about
50% due to the Japanese demand for the reconstruction of the damages
caused by the recent tsunami. I will move a resolution in the coming AGM
to list the company’s timber business. I believe all shareholders will
support my proposed resolution. This will benefit JT shareholders. For
example IOI Corp is listing their Property business and IOI Corp
shareholder will be given one IOI Property share for every three IOI
Corp shares held.
6. As shown in the last annual report, most of the largest top 30
shareholders were financial institutions. The 30th largest shareholder
was CIMSEC nominees (Asing) Sdn Bhd Bank of Singapore Limited for Profit
Centre Asset Management Limited holding 5,639,916 shares. They all know
the company has sustainable profit growth. This is reassuring to me and
all serious investors.
7. The total issued shares is 974 million X RM 2.10 = RM 2,045 million
plus about RM 500 million bank loan= RM 2,545 million divided by 62,000
ha planted area = RM 41,000 per ha which is comparatively cheap without
considering their timber and plywood businesses. The EV per ha for many
of the famous plantation companies is more than Rm 100,000 per ha.
This share is good for serious long term investors. It has sustainable
profit growth prospect for the next many years which is the most
important criteria for stock selection. It is not meant for day traders.
am obliged to tell you that my family members have accumulated more
than 33 million JT shares and I am not asking you to buy it. If you buy,
I have nothing to gain and I am not responsible for your profit or