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Today I decided to share something about TDM Berhad (2054). It seems to me that this stock is very undervalues, and could potentially become the white horse of year 2021. And I estimate the price to double up from current level.

I guess TDM actually is not a stock that many interested, due to the business nature in plantation and healthcare. It's a solid business company, which have less people interest in especially many stock market sifu never bother to mention or goreng it, most probably due to its share based 1.723 billion, looks bigger, harder to manipulated compare to those steel stock. 

However if to compare on fundamental and future prospect, I dont think it should losing behind steel and those goreng stock too much. Why I said so?

Put it simple, lets look at latest result:

If the next 3 quarter maintain same earning of RM 21 million, which Earning Per Share will be 1.26x4 = 5.04cent. 

RM 0.0504 x PE 10 only already = RM 0.504
RM 0.0504 x PE 12 only already = RM 0.604

Its has finally turnaround to profit of RM 21 millions, and what we can expect for next result already mostly even better or similar by looking at CPO price chart below:


Its very obvious that the CPO price strong uptrend and already higher than early year RM 3000 marks.

Lets comparing with TDM price chart :


Its so obvious that current price not even higher than early year of RM 0.40+, current price of RM 0.33 which already turn profit and enjoy higher CPO price, which seems no reason for the company to stay low. 

The target we given based on PE 12, and also based on technical chart resistant area. It's still have almost 100% upside. 

Many research already expecting SOYBEAN price to going higher, same to CPO, where I don't need to explain here again, I can only say that the prospect for TDM looks very good. (soybean price go higher will causing CPO price go higher)


That's all?

Not to forget about their Hospital business !! The very important sector after COVID-19 hunting around us. 



They actually already have plan to do IPO for their hospital business, that's one of the reason they are so bullish during early year. Things mostly in pipeline, just delay due to COVID-19 mostly, but we don't want you to chase high when news of this IPO surface again. 

It can unlock cash per share of RM 0.11-RM 0.20 depending on how much the IPO raise. Its already 1/3 of TDM share price, not to forget that TDM also have cash pile per share of roughly RM 0.20. 

Imagine after IPO, they will have cash at least RM 0.30-RM 0.40,
the price you pay at stock market is exactly the full cash value of the company ! Its so undervalues !!

NTA at RM 0.43 also strong sign that they are undervalues. 

Some more??


When year 2016, CPO price only RM 2300 to highest RM 3200, Public Investment Bank already give a buy call with target price of RM 0.83, if they dare to give such target, surely they see some value in TDM. Not to say current CPO price is way higher, but price still below RM 0.40, it's hugely undervalues !


LOOK CLOSELY !


TDM total share is  1.723billion shares.

Largest shareholder is Terengganu Incorporated Sdn. Bhd, which owning 61.46%, this mean that total share they own roughly 1.058 billions, this already left 665m share only. Not yet mention some fund also holding it, like Amanahraya, Great Eastern and others. 

Since its very good chance for TDM to go up big time so that Terengganu Incorporated Sdn.Bhd only can realize some value or have better position in their portfolio, by looking at a terrible COVID year of 2020, everyone surely looking chance to make money. 

So you should know what I mean, the share in the market actually not much, if "some one" go give buy call or Sapu big BUY, it might even LIMIT UP !! 

This can happen when insider know next result !! 

Lets look at technical chart once again:


Technically price is up trending, and nearest resistant is RM 0.355, which is only 2.5 cent away. If break we will see explosive big bull towards next resistant RM 0.42. Support at trending line of RM 0.315 which every time hit trend line will rebound, a strong accumulation sign at retrace. 

As a Conclusion:

1. TDM is undervalues. Fair value at least RM 0.50 - RM 0.60.
2. TDM could earn more in next few quarter due to higher CPO price.
3. TDM's Healthcare business could be unlock value by IPO.
4. TDM price still very low as compare to last few years bank target price RM 0.83.
5. TDM have not much share in the market, which many dint notice it.
6. TDM technically uptrend and bullish.
7. TDM could potentially double up in year 2021, as soon as first quarter of 2021. 

Above sharing is just for own studies, is not a buy or sell call, please take your action at your own risk.


http://bursalogicanalysis.blogspot.com/2020/12/tdm-white-horse-of-year-2021.html

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