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“This time it is different” (“这次会不一样”)


History is often similar, that they keep repeating. There are people who are willing to buy a stock that is extremely overvalued and still think they are reasonable, because they are having a mind-set of “this time it is different”.

Back in 2000, every single investor thinks that technology and internet related companies will be the next big thing in the near future. Hence, investors put mostly their money into internet related counters, which even included various fund manager too. At first, their returns are immense, every single investor earned two-fold or three-fold of their initial investment. By that time, everyone has become greedy, they could care less about valuation, actual profit and so, but with only one aim, which is to buy more internet related companies.

However, if a more rational investor digs more into these companies, they will find out that these companies has yet to make money, and all these hype just push their share price to the sky level. When everyone is greedy now, we should take a step back and see the entire picture, and try to prevent ourselves from it. Little do they know, the dotcom bubble burst and companies’ value evaporated as much as 95% within a year or so. Everyone that are greedy and chase for the internet related companies indeed, lost almost all their investment.

Back to reality, DJI and NASDAQ has recently just broken their historical level, TAIEX in Taiwan also hit their historical high while NIKKEI in Japan is at their highest point since 1991. Considering the global pandemic that we are currently facing that affected the economic severely, yet the market that often reflects the actual economic is constantly rising, is mental. Every investor in US keeps buying TESLA because they think that electric car will be the next big thing, and missing this chance to buy will miss a golden opportunity to earn more in the future. Today, the price of TESLA is USD880, which is USD4400 before split, and the writer do not know whether history will be different this time, but for sure buying now is extremely risky.

In short, history is often repeating, and people often let greed overtakes them and believes that this time will be different. Yes, it may be true but we never know and will never sure about that. Hence, making yourself less vulnerable and keeping a comfortable amount of cash shall be a wiser choice. Remember, missing a chance does not make you lose money, but mistime a chance will.

历史总是惊人的相似,而它们也总是重复着。有些人会愿意买非常被高估的股而觉得它们还是合理的,这是因为它们秉着“这次会不一样”的心态来进行投资。

回到2000年,每个投资者都觉得科技和互联网相关的公司会是近未来的下一个大事件。因此,投资者们把大多数的资金都投进互联网相关的公司里,这当然也包括了基金经理在内。一开始,他们的回酬都非常可观,各个投资者都赚了两三倍的回酬。到了那个时候,大家都有贪心的念头了,他们已经不管你的估值,真正的利润或者任何其他的东西了,而单纯只有一个目的,就是买更多的互联网相关的公司。

但是,如果一个比较理智的投资者深探这些公司的话,他们会发觉这些公司并还没开始赚钱,但就凭这些兴奋的投资者导致股价升天。当大家都很贪时,我们应该退一步来思考,观看整个局面,并尽量将自己置身于外。他们不知道的是,互联网泡沫终究还是爆破了,而公司的价值最多也有在一年里蒸发了95%的,造成当时去追高的投资者蒙受巨大亏损,几乎赔去了他们所有的投资。

回到现在,道琼指数和纳斯达克指数都在最近突破了历史新高,而台湾的加权指数也突破了历史新高而日本的日经指数则达到了自1991年来的新高。考虑到现在我们所面对的全球疫情所繁衍出的严重经济状况,而最能反映经济的股市却屡屡攀升,是疯狂的。每个在美国的投资者一直在买入特斯拉因为他们觉得电子车是下一个大趋势,而失去了这个机会就仿佛失去了可以赚钱的黄金机会那般。今天,特斯拉的股价来到了880美金,也就是拆股前的4400美金,而作者也不能很肯定的告诉你究竟历史会不会不重演,但现在买入的话风险时极高的。

总结,历史总是在重演,而人类总是被贪念冲昏脑袋而秉持这这次会不一样的信念。是的,总有一次一定会不一样,但我们不知道也不可能知道究竟哪次会不一样。所以保持着比较舒适的现金比例可以让自己比较“耐打”,也是比较聪明的做法。要记住,失去一个机会并不会让你亏钱,但错误地判断一个机会却会。

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https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/InvestingKnowEverything/2021-01-11-story-h1539261370.jsp

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