投行:今年若没再降息 银行业利息收入将复苏增长
(吉隆坡6日讯)联昌国际投行研究表示,只要隔夜政策利率(OPR)在今年内没有再降低,银行业的净利息收入将引来复苏增长。
该投行表示,如果今年不削减OPR,银行业的净利息赚幅(NIM),将小幅增长2至3个基点。
虽然银行业2020年的NIM,受到固定利率贷款的修改损失的拖累,但预计今年银行不会有太大的损失。
此外,分析员也看好今年的净利将会增长,归功于贷款损失准备金减少。
“现在,经济学家预测,全年OPR会维持在1.75%水平,之前预测是下调25个基点。我们对此保持乐观,因为降息对银行业的NIM不利。”
OPR的维持,预测将使今年银行业的净利提高约1.7%,此外,估计安联银行(ABMB,2488,主板金融股)在2022年的净利可增长7.5%。
“根据我们的估计,安联银行对利率的变化最为敏感,因为安联银行的浮动利率贷款比重,在明年估计高达82%,而低成本存款比重也达37.9%。”
“我们对银行领域做出“增持”评级,首选是大众银行(PBBANK,1295,主板金融股)、丰隆银行(HLBANK,5819,主板金融股)和兴业银行(RHBBANK,1066,主板金融股)。
http://www.enanyang.my/%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F%E6%96%B0%E9%97%BB/%E6%8A%95%E8%A1%8C%E4%BB%8A%E5%B9%B4%E8%8B%A5%E6%B2%A1%E5%86%8D%E9%99%8D%E6%81%AF-%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E5%88%A9%E6%81%AF%E6%94%B6%E5%85%A5%E5%B0%86%E5%A4%8D%E8%8B%8F%E5%A2%9E%E9%95%BF
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