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买复原能力强的股票/冷眼

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Date : 25 March 2021

 

 
TSH RESOURCES BHD
 
 
 
The Profile
 
An investment holding company,is engaged in the marketing of cocoa beans, operation of oil palm plantations and forest management. It is involved in the operation of palm oil mills; manufacture and sale of crude palm oil and palm kernel; and generation and supply of electricity from a biomass plant.
 
The company is also engaged in the manufacture and sale of cocoa products, such as cocoa butter, cocoa cake, and cocoa powder; It is also involved in manufacture and sale of downstream wood products, supply and installation of timber flooring and timber strips panel flooring, sub-licensing of strip lock system for the manufacture of engineered solid hardwood flooring that uses mechanical locking systems, operation of a pulp plant. It also undertakes oil palm ramets and other tissue culture projects.
 
The company has operations in Malaysia, Spain, Luxembourg, France, the United States, Indonesia, and Singapore. TSH Resources Berhad was founded in 1979 and is based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
 

Kim's Target Price

 
Current Price - RM1.08
TP1: RM1.33 (immediate)
TP2: RM1.50
 
Warrant: TSH-CN 
Current Price - 0.085 sen
TP1: 0.18 sen
TP2: 0.26 sen
 
 

The Time To Grow 

 
Market sentiment seems to lean towards the larger, more established palm oil companies as being the greatest beneficiaries of the crude palm oil rally.
 
But the phenomenon in the stock market is rather peculiar because their share prices begged to differ. In fact, the small cap palm oil companies were the ones that have outperformed the larger brethren, from when the market bottomed out on March 19 last year and between the period when the crude palm oil price (CPO) touched RM3,000 in September last year and when it hit its stratospheric price above RM4,000 per tonne last week.
 
 

 

The KeyNote

 
1. Industry palm production to increase in 2021F, driven mainly by Indonesia. Oil World has forecast global production of palm oil to increase by 4.0mil to 5.0mil tonnes in 2021F mainly due to Indonesia. Oil World estimates CPO output in Indonesia to improve by 8.2% to 45.4mil tonnes in 2021F from 42.0mil tonnes in 2020E. The Indonesia Palm Oil Association expects the country’s CPO output to rise by 4.3% to 49mil tonnes in 2021F from 47mil tonnes in 2020E. A recovery in FFB yields and ample rainfall would lead to higher industry palm production in Indonesia in 2021F.
 
2. Malaysia’s CPO production is expected inch up in 2021F. Currently, Oil World forecasts CPO production in Malaysia to rise to 19.5mil tonnes in 2021F from about 19.3mil tonnes in 2020E. The unexciting CPO output in 2021F is premised on the fact that there is a shortage of foreign labour in Malaysia presently. Also, the impact of a reduction in fertiliser application by smallholders in 2019 may still continue in 2021.
 
3. China’s demand for commodities has been robust in 2020E after the Covid-19 lockdown in Wuhan. China has been purchasing various soft commodities after the country ended its lockdown in Wuhan on 8 April 2020. Apart from stockpiling for the state reserves, the ramp-up in purchases was also due to China’s commitment to buy US$36.5bil worth of agricultural products from the US this year. China’s purchases of soybeans rose by 17.9% YoY to 11.16mil tonnes in 1H2020.
 
4. Indonesia biodiesel activities to pick up in 2021F. Indonesia’s biodiesel consumption is currently forecast to be 9.2mil KL (8.0mil tonnes) in 2021F compared with 8.0mil KL (6.97mil tonnes) in 2020E. The recovery in the biodiesel consumption in 2021F is expected to be driven by a pick-up in transportation activities in Indonesia following the ease of movement restrictions. As for B40, Indonesia has delayed implementing the biodiesel policy due to insufficient funds. B40 would have lifted Indonesia’s biodiesel consumption to 14.2mil KL (12.4mil tonnes) in 2022F. B40 trials were supposed to be completed in 2021F.
 
5. Malaysia is expected to complete the implementation of B20 biodiesel by mid-2021F. B20 is expected to increase Malaysia’s biodiesel consumption from 761,000 tonnes for B10 to 1.26mil tonnes for B20. The implementation of B7 in the industrial sector is estimated to absorb 100,000 tonnes of palm oil from the system. B20 was implemented in Sarawak in September 2020. B20 is expected to be implemented in Sabah in January 2021 and Peninsular Malaysia in June 2021.
 
6. The demand for downstream products would recover in 2H2021. As vaccines are gradually rolled out in 1H2021, the demand for non-healthcare oleochemical and refined palm products in the EU would recover in 2H2021. Also expect margin enhancements in 2H2021 as the cost of raw materials eased on higher palm supply. 
 
7. Can be expect industry palm demand to recover in 2021F which is India’s imports of palm oil would revert to the normal level of 8.0mil to 9.0mil tonnes per year in 2021F vs. 6.0mil to 6.5mil tonnes in 2020E (2019: 9.3mil tonnes). Covid-19 had reduced India’s palm demand from the HORECA (hotels, restaurants and catering) segment in 2020E. HORECA accounts for about a third of India’s palm usage.
 
8. Can be expect China would continue restocking palm oil in 2021F. Hence, China’s palm imports may exceed 2020E’s level of about six million tonnes. In 2019, about 22.2% of palm oil were used in the oleochemical industry in China while another 20.8% were used by instant noodles companies. An additional 20.8% of palm oil were used by the catering industry in China while the balance 57.0% were used in the food processing, solid fats and biodiesel industries.
 
9. I believe output recovery will be partly offset by the Indonesian government’s commitment to its B30 biodiesel mandate in 2021, which will, in turn, support palm oil consumption, and low edible oil stockpiles among key producing countries and consuming countries.
 
10. As we know, Palm oil prices hit a 12 year high in January 2021 and have remained above the RM3,500 level boosted by stronger soybean oil prices and concerns about weak CPO production. 
Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group (TSH) is cautiously optimistic of achieving a 
satisfactory performance for 2021.
 
11. The Board (TSH) remains optimistic on the long term prospect of the palm oil industry. Global 
population and per capita income growth as well as the many health qualities of palm oil 
are expected to drive greater demand for palm products. This augurs well for the Group (TSH) as 
palm products segment which accounts for approximately 88% of the revenue for the Group 
will remain the core contributor to the Group profit. 
 

The Director Keep Buying

 
 
 

The Exports of All Palm Products

PRODUCT UNIT JAN – FEB 2021 JAN – FEB 2020 CHANGE (MT/
RM MIL)
CHANGE (%)
CPO Tonnes 404,715 302,665            102,050         33.72
RM Mil 1,521.28 845                   677         80.11
PPO Tonnes 1,438,380 2,000,433          (562,053)        (28.10)
RM Mil 5,249.85 5,860                 (610)        (10.41)
PALM OIL Tonnes 1,843,095 2,303,098          (460,003)        (19.97)
RM Mil 6,771.13 6,705                     67           0.99
CPKO Tonnes 30,110 44,597            (14,487)        (32.48)
RM Mil 149.92 159                   (10)          (5.97)
PPKO Tonnes 103,604 126,678            (23,074)        (18.21)
RM Mil 522.97 482                     41           8.51
PALM KERNEL OIL Tonnes 133,714 171,276            (37,562)        (21.93)
RM Mil 672.89 641                     31           4.91
PALM KERNEL CAKE Tonnes 317,439 301,096              16,343           5.43
RM Mil 211.61 145                     67         46.40
OLEOCHEMICALS Tonnes 500,806 498,776                2,030           0.41
RM Mil 2,483.62 2,001                   482         24.09
FINISHED PRODUCTS Tonnes 96,776 82,602              14,174         17.16
RM Mil 479.11 378                   101         26.80
BIODIESEL Tonnes 38,288 80,314            (42,026)        (52.33)
RM Mil 159.95 242                   (82)        (33.79)
OTHERS Tonnes 197,677 242,236            (44,559)        (18.39)
RM Mil 271.37 221                     51         22.86
TOTAL Tonnes 3,127,794 3,679,398          (551,604)        (14.99)
RM Mil 11,049.68 10,332                   717           6.94
 

The Malaysia’s Exports & Imports

  Exports Imports
  2021 2020 2021 2020
Jan 947,539 1,213,569 165,198 85,033
Feb 895,556 1,089,529 87,326 66,735
Mar   1,184,973   79,216
Apr   1,236,478   56,596
May   1,369,351   37,101
Jun   1,706,635   48,841
Jul   1,783,284   52,691
Aug   1,578,075   32,311
Sep   1,612,155   48,273
Oct   1,674,380   45,398
Nov   1,303,807   112,663
Dec   1,642,835   282,058
Jan-Dec   17,395,071   946,917
 

The Exports to Major Countries

COUNTRY JAN – FEB 2021 JAN – FEB 2020 CHANGE (MT) CHANGE (%) JAN – DEC 2020
INDIA 284,404 68,006 216,398 318.20 2,726,956
CHINA 197,599 333,635 (136,036) (40.77) 2,730,660
NETHERLANDS 126,564 188,716 (62,152) (32.93) 1,072,952
PHILIPPINES 88,792 130,230 (41,438) (31.82) 693,026
JAPAN 77,053 82,606 (5,553) (6.72) 433,022
IRAN 72,440 7,744 64,696 835.43 321,041
TURKEY 70,855 95,600 (24,745) (25.88) 615,872
U.S.A 65,579 112,382 (46,803) (41.65) 540,349
PAKISTAN 64,266 217,849 (153,583) (70.50) 1,003,723
SAUDI ARABIA 55,230 85,938 (30,708) (35.73) 349,489
TOTAL 1,102,782 1,322,706 (219,924) (16.63) 10,487,090
 

The Production & Stocks

  Production End-Stocks
  2021 2020 2021 2020
Jan 1,126,457 1,171,534 1,324,626 1,755,417
Feb 1,105,590 1,288,515 1,300,808 1,700,261
Mar   1,401,481   1,729,592
Apr   1,652,771   2,044,498
May   1,651,336   2,029,579
Jun   1,885,742   1,898,372
Jul   1,807,397   1,699,171
Aug   1,863,309   1,702,809
Sep   1,869,256   1,721,802
Oct   1,724,559   1,573,389
Nov   1,491,074   1,562,317
Dec   1,333,639   1,265,698
*Jan-Dec   1,595,051   1,723,575
 

The Monthly Average Prices
  2021 2020
Jan 3,749 3,014
Feb 3,896 2,715
Mar   2,382
Apr   2,299
May   2,074
Jun   2,412
Jul   2,519
Aug   2,815
Sep   2,924
Oct   2,980
Nov   3,422
Dec   3,621
*Jan-Dec   2,765
 

The Malaysian Palm Oil Exports Countries

 
COUNTRY JAN – FEB 2021 JAN – FEB 2020 CHANGE (MT) CHANGE (%) JAN – DEC 2020
AFGHANISTAN 11,997 12,102 (105) (0.87) 75,740
ALBANIA 19 254 (235) (92.52) 1,599
ALGERIA 3,567 5,909 (2,342) (39.63) 17,016
ANGOLA 13,773 13,721 52 0.38 124,017
ANTIGUA 22 0 22 #DIV/0! 131
ARGENTINA 427 342 85 24.85 2,560
AUSTRALIA 24,960 21,890 3,070 14.02 145,978
BAHRAIN 1,579 2,491 (912) (36.61) 9,758
BANGLADESH 19,768 22,790 (3,022) (13.26) 315,275
BARBADOS 0 45 (45) (100.00) 288
BELGIUM 1,023 473 550 116.28 3,174
BENIN 7,537 16,511 (8,974) (54.35) 111,475
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 0 24 (24) (100.00) 47
BRAZIL 768 774 (6) (0.78) 9,141
BRUNEI 1,326 1,222 104 8.51 9,092
BULGARIA 47 2,485 (2,438) (98.11) 10,706
CAMBODIA 124 737 (613) (83.18) 2,142
CAMEROON 2,532 2,959 (427) (14.43) 32,117
CANADA 2,933 2,275 658 28.92 12,905
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC 0 60 (60) (100.00) 203
CHAD 0 683 (683) (100.00) 1,032
CHILE 655 2,014 (1,359) (67.48) 8,764
CHINA 197,599 333,635 (136,036) (40.77) 2,730,660
COLOMBIA 42 22 20 90.91 639
COMOROS 139 60 79 131.67 1,242
CONGO, DEMOCRATIC REP. OF THE 15,576 4,964 10,612 213.78 47,035
COSTA RICA 0 18 (18) (100.00) 18
COTE D’IVOIRE 2,926 6,716 (3,790) (56.43) 53,799
CROATIA 758 688 70 10.17 7,999
CUBA 143 143 618
DENMARK 7,241 7,695 (454) (5.90) 52,832
DJIBOUTI 7,252 17,909 (10,657) (59.51) 122,390
DOMINICA 1,787 21 1,766 8,409.52 527
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 0 232 (232) (100.00) 232
EGYPT 22,266 16,924 5,342 31.56 155,747
ERITREA 850 116 734 632.76 2,639
ETHIOPIA 1,218 1,267 (49) (3.87) 20,080
FIJI 278 387 (109) (28.17) 2,443
FRANCE 67 29 38 131.03 259
GABON 0 178 (178) (100.00) 513
GAMBIA 2,029 2,892 (863) (29.84) 19,752
GEORGIA 2,114 7,078 (4,964) (70.13) 19,470
GERMANY 2,893 7,367 (4,474) (60.73) 21,462
GHANA 29,422 32,689 (3,267) (9.99) 246,861
GREECE 8,705 5,733 2,972 51.84 16,006
GUATEMALA 120 360 (240) (66.67) 1,219
GUINEA 539 1,854 (1,315) (70.93) 19,577
GUYANA 571 432 139 32.18 2,738
HAITI 1,001 1,618 (617) (38.13) 12,743
HONG KONG 5,623 596 5,027 843.46 10,541
HUNGARY 0 238 (238) (100.00) 1,451
INDIA 284,404 68,006 216,398 318.20 2,726,956
INDONESIA 695 9,170 (8,475) (92.42) 19,101
IRAN 72,440 7,744 64,696 835.43 321,041
IRAQ 1,986 19,276 (17,290) (89.70) 25,869
ITALY 25,465 61,469 (36,004) (58.57) 439,053
JAMAICA 238 196 42 21.43 1,809
JAPAN 77,053 82,606 (5,553) (6.72) 433,022
JORDAN 4,697 1,958 2,739 139.89 13,136
KAZAKHSTAN 485 3,091 (2,606) (84.31) 16,066
KENYA 48,571 19,542 29,029 148.55 520,758
KIRIBATI 19 20 (1) (5.00) 88
KUWAIT 5,480 6,060 (580) (9.57) 20,449
KYRGYZSTAN 0 86 (86) (100.00) 591
LAOS 58 42 16 38.10 248
LATVIA 0 128 (128) (100.00) 1,794
LEBANON 1,276 1,978 (702) (35.49) 7,675
LIBERIA 315 701 (386) (55.06) 7,749
LIBYA 75 0 75 #DIV/0! 273
LITHUANIA 2 0 2 #DIV/0! 97
MACEDONIA 47 139 (92) (66.19) 817
MADAGASCAR 16,786 13,964 2,822 20.21 101,058
MALDIVES 987 892 95 10.65 5,020
MAURITANIA 7,529 8,645 (1,116) (12.91) 88,689
MAURITIUS 284 351 (67) (19.09) 3,281
MAYOTTE 16 0 16 #DIV/0! 84
MEXICO 1,120 1,108 12 1.08 7,415
MONGOLIA 165 252 (87) (34.52) 1,150
MOROCCO 376 4,306 (3,930) (91.27) 18,613
MOZAMBIQUE 53,724 44,633 9,091 20.37 301,757
MYANMAR 3,906 9,789 (5,883) (60.10) 40,978
NAMIBIA 45 307 (262) (85.34) 972
NEPAL 573 1,013 (440) (43.44) 2,420
NETHERLANDS 126,564 188,716 (62,152) (32.93) 1,072,952
NEW ZEALAND 4,982 6,852 (1,870) (27.29) 31,817
NIGER 0 6,605 (6,605) (100.00) 18,688
NIGERIA 22,114 24,350 (2,236) (9.18) 367,819
NORWAY 23 0 23 #DIV/0! 44
OMAN 6,536 2,789 3,747 134.35 99,911
PAKISTAN 64,266 217,849 (153,583) (70.50) 1,003,723
PALESTINE 112 0 112 #DIV/0! 141
PANAMA 257 84 173 205.95 1,244
PAPUA N GUINEA 3,068 793 2,275 286.89 10,551
PARAGUAY 4 0 4 #DIV/0! #N/A
PERU 0 240 (240) (100.00) 675
PHILIPPINES 88,792 130,230 (41,438) (31.82) 693,026
POLAND 0 105 (105) (100.00) 516
PORTUGAL 13 5 8 160.00 328
QATAR 5,146 4,486 660 14.71 20,130
ROMANIA 661 1,337 (676) (50.56) 6,559
RUSSIA 853 1,666 (813) (48.80) 10,967
SAUDI ARABIA 55,230 85,938 (30,708) (35.73) 349,489
SENEGAL 3,652 5,690 (2,038) (35.82) 39,137
SERBIA 0 29 (29) (100.00) 816
SEYCHELLES 23 67 (44) (65.67) 361
SIERRA LEONE 0 1,472 (1,472) (100.00) 4,631
SINGAPORE 26,942 67,441 (40,499) (60.05) 288,240
SOMALIA 8,851 18,525 (9,674) (52.22) 101,595
SOUTH AFRICA 23,226 27,386 (4,160) (15.19) 212,509
SOUTH KOREA 47,580 68,357 (20,777) (30.39) 453,278
SPAIN 17,821 40,098 (22,277) (55.56) 198,287
SRI LANKA 17,737 50,185 (32,448) (64.66) 124,128
ST. LUCIA 46 30 16 53.33 78
SUDAN 0 1,370 (1,370) (100.00) 25,926
SURINAME 22 180 (158) (87.78) 860
SWEDEN 14,125 13,201 924 7.00 103,440
SWITZERLAND 345 43 302 702.33 971
SYRIA 3,706 1,082 2,624 242.51 17,004
TAIWAN 30,769 28,234 2,535 8.98 216,338
TANZANIA 21,624 37,880 (16,256) (42.91) 201,760
TOBAGO 0 21 (21) (100.00) 627
TOGO 13,788 34,873 (21,085) (60.46) 173,758
TRINIDAD 698 1,038 (340) (32.76) 6,167
TUNISIA 0 3,229 (3,229) (100.00) 3,337
TURKEY 70,855 95,600 (24,745) (25.88) 615,872
TURKMENISTAN 0 531 (531) (100.00) 1,358
U.A.E 13,561 11,483 2,078 18.10 102,158
U.S.A 65,579 112,382 (46,803) (41.65) 540,349
UGANDA 119 0 119 #DIV/0! 1,246
UKRAINE 2,039 17,969 (15,930) (88.65) 49,697
UNITED KINGDOM 1,157 2,844 (1,687) (59.32) 15,505
URUGUAY 72 22 50 227.27 67
UZBEKISTAN 2,416 3,682 (1,266) (34.38) 30,210
VANUATU 73 0 73 #DIV/0! 156
VENEZUELA 0 23 (23) (100.00) 23
VIETNAM 37,222 49,454 (12,232) (24.73) 436,839
YEMEN ARAB REP. 24,276 4,611 19,665 426.48 94,365
OTHERS 3,123 2,928 195 6.66 23,776
TOTAL 1,843,095 2,303,098 (460,003) (19.97) 17,368,865
 

The Chart

 
 
 
 
The chart's look good with all indicators showing strong signal to move anytime from now. 
 
 
 

The Financial Company

 

 


The Quater Report & Dividen

 

 

 


 
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KIM
 

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