CTOS (5301) CTOS DIGITAL BERHAD disruption of service likely a brief hiccup
KUALA LUMPUR: The decline in CTOS Digital Bhd's share price could be an opportunity to accumulate shares as the recent suspension of access to the central credit reference information system (CCRIS) could be just a temporary setback.
"In our view, the pullback in share price was an overreaction by the market," said RHB Research in a note.
Following Bank Negara's temporary suspension of all credit reporting agency's access to CCRIS from Oct 1, RHB said there is no evidence of CTOS being guilty of data leak, and its structural growth thesis remains intact.
"The central bank has stressed that such a measure is proactive and pre-emptive in nature in light of the recent alleged data leak involving various governmental bodies such as the National Registration Department and Inland Revenue Board.
"The central bank has also promised access will resume once the CRAs complete data security assessments," it added in a note.
In its worst-case scenario, RHB said the assessments could take a quarter to finish while all lenders stop using CTOS's services in 4QFY21. Meanwhile, all costs would be fixed.
Under these assumptions, CTOS will lose RM14mil in revenue and record RM10mil loss a month.
However, RHB deems this highly unlikely given the level of disruption to the financial system, especially for non-bank lenders.
Further, this would likely result in tightening in lending, especially to the B40 group, which goes against Bank Negara's agenda.
While RHB noted that the alleged leak did not appear to originate from CTOS, it did not rule out the remote possibility of any compromise revealed by the assessments.
"In this unlikely event, we could see a serious valuation de-rating," it said.
For the present, RHB maintained its "buy" call on the stock with a target price of RM2.36.