概率
時間有著不可逆性,除非人類發明了時光機,否則,時間就這麼在我們身邊線性流動著。
假想我們生活在一條不知道長度的繩子上,繩子上面是時間的刻度,在每一個時間點都有一個我們。我們衹能回頭看過去每個片段的我們,就如同打遊戲衹要走過的區域都是可見的,而眼前即將去的那些地方都是黑色的。你不知道今天出門會遇到什麼,也不知道別人接下來會怎麼對你,這幾乎就是一切焦慮的來源。
人類為什麼喜歡算命,為什麼會相信星座的運勢,其本質就是想瞭解處於繩子前方但看不見的自己。
但坦白説,這一切都是徒勞的,因為黑暗處的影響因素太多。我們在時間軸上能做的,衹能是回顧過去和選擇當下。而過去的已經過去,你也無法回去改變什麼。所以,當我們投資的時候,對未來的預測,就僅僅是預測,可能對也可能錯,因為這一切都是基於過去的分析。
所以,當下最好的選擇,往往就是通過對過往數據和事件的分析,得出大概率的趨勢,比如經常運動的人身體更好,死得更晚。根據概率來決定當下的行動,這就是順勢而為。但未來一定會得到大概率的結果嗎?也不盡然,有可能這個喜歡運動的人出門就被車撞死了,這是小概率事件。
忠實遵從長期投資有價值的好公司這大概率也不一定100%賺錢,那怎麼辦?
明白到即使功課做足也沒有必賺的概率這一點,投資有6成以上的勝率,就隨遇而安就好。
著作網購鏈接(馬來西亞):《打工族股息路》
著作網購鏈接(新加坡):《打工族股息路》SG
大眾書局網購鏈接 :大眾書局網購鏈接
http://mercurychong.blogspot.com/2022/01/blog-post_11.html
Singapore Investment
-
-
-
-
Portfolio Summary for June 20252 hours ago
-
-
-
Portfolio Update Q2 20259 hours ago
-
-
-
-
-
Portfolio (June 30, 2025)12 hours ago
-
Portfolio (June 30, 2025)12 hours ago
-
-
Portfolio Update June 202513 hours ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
Portfolio -- June 202516 hours ago
-
Keeping your financial matters in order16 hours ago
-
-
Month of June 202517 hours ago
-
-
June 2025 Updates20 hours ago
-
-
-
“Don’t say it already, all lousy…”23 hours ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Batisht crazy!3 days ago
-
-
Will SORA crash to 1 per cent?3 days ago
-
-
-
-
Hello world!5 days ago
-
-
Cut back some exposure6 days ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
8 tips for house moving1 week ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
May 2025 Portfolio4 weeks ago
-
-
-
Thakral - Gem life deal finally coming?4 weeks ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clarity1 month ago
-
The Trump Tariffs1 month ago
-
Selling HRnet and Fiverr1 month ago
-
-
-
-
Ignore the noise and be calm2 months ago
-
-
-
-
FAQ on Quantitative Investing Part 22 months ago
-
-
-
-
Crossing the 300k Mark [in a volatile period]2 months ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ETF vs Mutual Fund: Which is Better?5 months ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Arigato Everyone! A Decade of Blogging!5 months ago
-
Top 10 Highlights of 20246 months ago
-
-
-
Union Square Residences8 months ago
-
-
-
STI ETF9 months ago
-
-
-
Unibet Casino Bonus Codes 20249 months ago
-
-
-
-
The Stigma against Early Retirement (FIRE)11 months ago
-
Monthly IBKR Update – June 202411 months ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Feb 2024 Expenditure1 year ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Monthly Summary of November 20231 year ago
-
Migration of website1 year ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
Hello SP Group, I'm Back!2 years ago
-
-
-
A New Light2 years ago
-
-
-
-
-
2022 Thoughts, Hello 2023!2 years ago
-
Series of Defaults for Maple Finance2 years ago
-
Takeaways from “Sea Change”2 years ago
-
Greed is Coming Back2 years ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
What is Overemployment3 years ago
-
Terra Hill Condo (former Flynn Park)3 years ago
-
Alibaba VS Tencent: The Battle Royale3 years ago
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-