国行周三料升息0.25% 逾10年来首次连升
(吉隆坡4日讯)调查显示,大马国家银行周三料将升息25个基点以遏制通膨和扶持马币,这将是国行逾10年来首次连续升息。
由于联储局大幅升息,导致马币走软,也是大马通膨加剧的一大原因。
尽管与许多其他经济体相比,大马通膨率较低,但国行在5月的会议上出乎意料地将其关键隔夜政策利率提高25个基点至2.00%。
外电在6月27日至7月1日的调查中,所有22位经济学家都预测,大马国行会在7月6日的会议上将隔夜政策利率上调25个基点至2.25%。国行此前连续两次加息是在2010年年中。
不过,与全球其他中行相比,国行料步伐缓慢,国行已表态打算采取“谨慎渐进”步伐。
在22名受访者中,有略占多数的12人预计,9月份会再加息25个基点至2.50%,而其余10人则预计7月加息后,9月不会再有调整。不管怎样,接下来肯定还会有更多的加息行动。
摩根士丹利亚洲经济学家甘德力(译音,Derrick Kam)指出,“国行将注意到通膨的潜在上行压力,这些压力来自于最近最低工资的上调、某些食品的顶价上调,以及在经济重新开放环境下需求拉动通膨升高”
穆迪经济学家丹尼斯卓克(Denise Cheok)表示,“由于联储局大举加息,马币兑美元汇率一直在下跌,因此提高隔夜政策利率将有助于维持利率差,从而支撑马币”。
对于11月的议息会议,22位经济学家中,有12位预测利率为2.50%,8位预测为2.75%,2位预测为2.25%。
该调查的预测中值还显示,2023年前两个季度每季都将加息25个基点。对于2023年第一季,20位经济学家中有9位预计利率将升至2.75%,6位预测为3.00%,5位预计为2.50%。
隔夜利率预计将在明年第二季达到冠病大流行前的3.00%。大约一半的受访者(19人中有9人)预计利率将上升至3.00%,6人表示为2.75%,3人表示为2.50%,1人表示为3.25%。
国行在5月会议上将2022年经济增长预测维持在5.3至6.3%之间,预计今年整体通膨率将保持在2.2至3.2%之间。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220705/%E5%9B%BD%E8%A1%8C%E5%91%A8%E4%B8%89%E6%96%99%E5%8D%87%E6%81%AF0-25-%E9%80%BE10%E5%B9%B4%E6%9D%A5%E9%A6%96%E6%AC%A1%E8%BF%9E%E5%8D%87/
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