“美国麻烦比70年代更大” 末日博士:有人还痴人说梦
鲁比尼
(纽约26日讯)知名经济学家鲁比尼表示,利率上升和沉重债务负担令美国面临严重衰退,那些预计经济只是小幅滑坡的人“纯属痴心妄想”。
这位Roubini Macro Associates的董事长兼总执行长周一在彭博电视上表示:“有很多原因导致我们将经历猛烈的经济衰退及严重的债务和金融危机。凡是以为这只是经济路上小磕绊的人都是痴人说梦。”
鲁比尼提到历史上疫情后负债率的例子。他特别讲到发达经济体以及一些子行业的债务负担。
鲁比尼称,现在的情况与1970年代不同,当时尽管经济滞胀,但负债率处于低位。而自2008年金融危机以来,美国的债务激增,紧随其后的是信贷危机和需求冲击导致的低通胀或通缩。
“这一次,我们遭遇的是滞胀环境下总供给负面冲击和处于历史高位的负债比,”人称“末日博士”的鲁比尼说。“在过去的两次衰退中,我们实施了大规模的货币和财政宽松政策。这一回我们在收紧政策,经济正步入衰退。我们没有财政腾挪空间。”
美联储主席鲍威尔曾表示,与让美国陷入衰退相比,无法保持物价稳定将是一个“更大的错误”。
预计美联储本周将再次加息75基点。预计决策者们还将发出未来几个月继续加息的信号。
“这一次,我们面临滞胀和严重债务危机的两面夹击,”鲁比尼说。“因此局势可能会比70年代和全球金融危机后更糟糕。”
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