春江水“冷”鸭先知 芯片商警惕经济衰退
(首尔17日讯)有关半导体需求的疑虑升高下,令北亚一些高科技出口国不寒而栗,它们向来都是国际经济强弱的风向标。
韩国三星电子和SK海力士已经表明计划缩减投资支出,全球最大的代工芯片制造商台积电,也表达了类似的预期。
随着俄乌战争和利率上升抑制了经济活动,科技需求的消退描绘出一幅黯淡的前景。
最近几周,主要芯片制造商美光、英伟达、英特尔和AMD都警告出口订单疲软。
Gartner预测,该行业最大的繁荣周期之一将戛然而止。这家研究公司将2022年收入增长预估值,从三个月前的14%,下调至仅7.4%。
Gartner预计2023年更将减少2.5%。
在价值5000亿美元(约2.2兆令吉)的半导体市场中,内存芯片是容易受到全球经济表现牵动的领域之一,三星和SK海力士的DRAM销售是韩国贸易的重心。
科技研究公司集邦科技表示,明年DRAM需求位元增长率(bit growth)可能只有8.3%,这是有记录以来最低,供应位元增长率料为14.1%。
贸易开始恶化
当位元增长的需求超过供应时,就可支持韩国的出口。但由于明年供应的增长速度可能几乎是需求的两倍,出口可能会严重下滑。
越来越多迹象表明,贸易已经开始恶化。
韩国7月份的科技出口减少,这是两年多来的首次,其中内存芯片领跌。6月半导体库存以六年多来最快的速度累积 。
潜在的受害者包括三星 Samsung Electronics Co Ltd KRX: 005930,它是全球最大的内存芯片生产商,也是韩国依赖贸易型经济的重中之重。
当需求相对于供应强劲时,三星实现了快速的销售增长。
随着芯片前景变得黯淡,三星股价今年一直在下跌,偶尔会因利润好于预期而反弹。
https://www.enanyang.my/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F/%E6%98%A5%E6%B1%9F%E6%B0%B4%E2%80%9C%E5%86%B7%E2%80%9D%E9%B8%AD%E5%85%88%E7%9F%A5-%E8%8A%AF%E7%89%87%E5%95%86%E8%AD%A6%E6%83%95%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E8%A1%B0%E9%80%80
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