佩洛西料访台 台湾股汇下跌 亚洲汇市 山雨欲来风满楼?
(台北2日讯)美国众议院议长佩洛西周二料将抵达台湾,可能升高与中国的紧张关系,交易员正在为此情景预做准备,台币即期延续跌势刷新逾两年低点,避险货币日圆上涨。
台币兑美元周二开低在30元整,并逐步扩大跌幅再探2020年5月以来最弱,台股亦下跌超过1%。台北时间9:22,据台北外汇行情,台币兑美元较上日收盘下跌0.25%,报30.058元;在主要亚币表现最差。
隔夜在美国交易时段,台币NDF交易反映避险情绪而走挫,不过亚洲时段台币兑美元一个月期NDF已止跌回稳。传统避险资产日圆和美国国债续走强,日圆触及两个月高位。
中国将台湾视为其领土的一部分,先前宣称佩洛西访台将造成严重后果;佩洛西如果成行,她将成为25年来踏上台湾土地的最高级别美国政要。白宫试图缓和因此与中国日益加剧的紧张关系,坚称此行不代表美国对台湾的态度改变,并敦促北京不要采取激进的回应。
香港RBC资金市场亚洲货币策略主管Alvin Tan说,佩洛西访台显然带给人民币和台币短期风险。针对台湾祭出一些经济反制措施是不可避免的,否则在发出所有威胁之后却毫无动作,中国的面子是挂不住的。
中国针对佩洛西访台可能采取的行动,包括向台湾海峡发射飞弹、启动新的军事行动、穿越台湾与中国之间非正式的禁飞区和发表关于台湾海峡的“虚假”法律主张。
“市场需要对中美之间发生意外军事冲突的风险保持灵活,”丰业银行驻新加坡的外汇策略师Qi Gao称。“我们密切关注佩洛西的行程,可能会看到美元/离岸人民币和美元/新台币的飙升。”
一个月期美元兑台币风险逆转已升至5月以来的最高水平,表明交易员押注台湾货币将走弱。
尽管存在紧张局势,但全球风险市场仍具有相对弹性。中国离岸人民币周一下跌0.5%。标准普尔500指数仅下跌0.3%。
全球最大的晶片制造商台积电的美国存托凭证在美国交易下跌2.5%,费城半导体指数上涨0.4%。台积电股价今年已下跌18%,台湾基准股指的跌幅大致相同。
据知情人士透露,佩洛西最快可能于周二抵达台北。一位人士表示,佩洛西周三会见蔡英文总统,但另一位人士表示,这样的会面仍可能有变。
台湾《自由时报》未引述消息来源报导,美国众议院议长佩洛西预计将乘坐专机抵达松山机场。她预计夜宿君悦酒店,预计周三下午搭机离台。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220802/%E4%BD%A9%E6%B4%9B%E8%A5%BF%E6%96%99%E8%AE%BF%E5%8F%B0-%E5%8F%B0%E6%B9%BE%E8%82%A1%E6%B1%87%E4%B8%8B%E8%B7%8C-%E4%BA%9A%E6%B4%B2%E6%B1%87%E5%B8%82-%E5%B1%B1%E9%9B%A8%E6%AC%B2%E6%9D%A5%E9%A3%8E/
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