花旗: 半导体业 进入10年最糟低迷期
(纽约31日讯)花旗集团一位分析师周二警告称,半导体行业正进入10年来最严重的低迷期,并预测晶片板块可能再下跌25%。
花旗研究部(Citi Research)分析师克里斯托弗·丹利(Christopher Danley)在一份报告中写道,本财报季对晶片行业的业绩预期普遍下降,是冠病疫情开始以来的首次。
尽管很多分析师将此归咎于个人电脑和智能手机销售因经济衰退而大幅降温,但他们指出,汽车和工业部门持续强劲是乐观的理由。
不过,丹利并没有看到同样的积极因素,他认为这些强劲行业已显示出未来疲弱的迹象。
“我们还看到汽车和工业终端市场出现调整的初步迹象,鉴于经济衰退和库存增加,我们继续认为半导体行业正进入十年来最严重的低迷期,”
丹利指出,美光科技和Analog Devices的高管最近几周都披露了来自汽车和工业部门的订单被取消。
丹利表示:“我们预计会有更多公司宣布来自汽车/工业终端市场的订单取消,因为产能增加而需求减弱。”
丹利认为,这将导致晶片股进一步下跌。他说:“我们仍然相信,每个企业/终端市场都会修正,我们预计SOX指数将触及新低,再跌25%。”
丹利指的是费城半导体指数(PHLX Semiconductor Index,SOX),该指数已经有望录得14年来最大跌幅。
今年以来,该指数下跌了32%,如果保持不变,将是该指数自2008年以来的最大跌幅,当时该指数下跌了48%。
如果从目前的2700点再下跌25%,SOX指数将达到2020点左右,这将是自2020年7月7日收于2019点以来的最低水平。
根据FactSet的数据,SOX指数上一次收于纪录高位是在去年12月27日,当时收于4039.51点。
今年以来跌幅最大的SOX成分股包括英伟达和Marvell Technology。英伟达股价今年以来累计下跌48%,Marvell下跌了45%。
https://www.sinchew.com.my/20220901/%E8%8A%B1%E6%97%97%EF%BC%9A%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E8%BF%9B%E5%85%A510%E5%B9%B4%E6%9D%A5%E6%9C%80%E7%B3%9F%E4%BD%8E%E8%BF%B7%E6%9C%9F%EF%BC%8C%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E6%88%96%E5%86%8D/
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