分析员:升息将扩大银行净息差
(吉隆坡9日讯)在国家银行将隔夜政策利率(OPR)上调25个基点至2.50%后,银行业将受益于净息差扩大。
银河-联昌证券指出,升息可能有利于银行,因银行的浮动利率贷款高于定期存款,两者都会随着利率上调。
然而,由于存款竞争加剧,导致资金成本上升,这可能会在一定程度上稀释这一正面影响。
“我们对银行的盈利预测已计入2022年加息75个基点的因素。”
该研究机构今日在报告中写道:“如果计入2023年的升息,每上调25个基点,我们对银行的净利预测将提高约2.1%。”
该机构的分析还显示,升息对马来西亚伊斯兰银行(Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd)的效益最大,利率每上调25个基点,其2023财年净收入将增加7.6%,因该银行浮动利率贷款的比重为91%,是业内最高。
“相反,对艾芬银行(Affin Bank Bhd)的效益则是最小,利率每调高25个基点,2023财年净利仅增0.2%,因浮动利率贷款比重74.1%,将是业内最低之一。”
银河-联昌重申银行业的“增持”评级,首选股是兴业银行(RHB Bank Bhd),并给予“加码”评级,目标价7.46令吉。
同时,丰隆投资银行研究亦对银行业持乐观态度,并在大型银行方面看好马银行(Malayan Banking Bhd,目标价:9.70令吉),而中型银行是兴业银行(目标价:6.60令吉)。
“至于小型银行,我们所研究的3家银行均获‘买入’评级,即大马伊银(目标价:3令吉)、艾芬银行(目标价:2.35令吉)和安联银行(Alliance Bank Bhd,目标价:4.05令吉)。”
大众投资银行研究指出,尽管存在短期波动,但利率正常化和经济逐步复苏将使资产质量改善、贷款增长和赚幅扩大,这都是该行业的中期利好。
“我们喜欢马银行(目标价:9.70令吉)和联昌国际集团(CIMB Group Holdings Bhd,目标价:6令吉),两者皆是‘超越大市’。”
(编译:陈慧珊)
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/%E5%88%86%E6%9E%90%E5%91%98%EF%BC%9A%E5%8D%87%E6%81%AF%E5%B0%86%E6%89%A9%E5%A4%A7%E9%93%B6%E8%A1%8C%E5%87%80%E6%81%AF%E5%B7%AE
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