Howard Marks最近訪問談風險
網上看見Howard Marks(HM)最近接受一個訪問談到很多財務知識,這位連巴菲特都賺不絕口的基金經理,所講的內容定必含金量十足,這裏分享一下。
與眾不同 選對投資取態
HM認為若要做一位偉大的投資者,就要與眾不同。然而,當你想與眾不同,即希望比平均數更成功,就有機會出錯而令你的成績低於平均數。更具體地說,平均數是大市指數。只要你想跑贏大市,作一些與大市不同的投資動作,就需要背負風險而有機會跑輸大市。
有關投資取態,HM提到一個很特別的例子,他指有基金經理曾經連續14年排名介乎第27位至第47位,累積下來,卻令這位基金經理總排名第4位,而不是27至47的平均數。其實,要長時間地跑贏大市一點點是非常困難,而結果亦會非常了不起。
因此,HM的投資取態是「寧願不做最好的5%,也不做最差的5%」,只要每年比大市好一點點就夠了,太進取,反而要冒太大風險,不太理想。依他觀察,很多基金於某年回報超高,冠絕全行,但很少能維持30年之久。
風險估值模型
基金行業有不少人靠風險估值模型去投資,將風險量化。但HM覺得風險並不能計算出來,即使事件發生後,回顧事件仍不能把風險量化。因此,他對風險的態度是保守,永遠準備好面對一些突如其來的事情,因為未來永遠充滿不確定性。他認為作為投資者,需要時刻保持懷疑的心態。
投資生涯打滾多年,HM覺得最緊要是生存。順勢時當然無問題,但當到逆勢時,生存變得非常重要。投資充滿不確定,投資者需要謙卑。但要投資成功,投資者又需要自信。謙卑與自信,兩者似乎出現對立。
HM認為,投資者需要就謙卑與自信之間作出平衡。當投資項目價格大跌,被市場輕視,成功的投資者要有足夠自信與勇氣逆向操作。然而,這些自信不能來自盲目,而是需要謙卑地檢視、懷疑自己、分析研究。
大數據與人工智能
近年大數據與人工智能對投資界有不少影響,HM也談到自己的看法。他認為今時今日資訊爆炸,電腦運算速度好高,而且不會出錯,令投資者在市場上找到錯價的機會大減。因此投資者需要做得比從前更好、更多,例如評估企業CEO、產品、會計、理解未來。
無可否認,新世代絕對會改變投資界,更會淘汰不少業內人員與公司,但始終不能取代最好的一批投資者,因為電腦只能以歷史數據作計算,而投資涉及對未來的主觀判斷,例如選出下一個Steve Jobs或下一間Amazon,這些動作都不可能單單基於過去數據就能達成。
篇幅所限,更多詳細評論可到小弟Patreon重溫。
文章連結:經濟通
相關連結:https://www.patreon.com/posts/zui-xin-howard-70740077
https://www.cpleung826.com/2022/08/howard-marks.html
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