抄底战役之 BIMB 5258 BANK ISLAM MALAYSIA BERHAD
去年抄底的MBSB为我带来了相当不错的回酬后,尝到抄底甜头的我今年又进行了一场抄底战役-BIMB。说是抄底自然是因为它与去年的MBSB一样跌破了10年的新低,市场上也充斥着许多对它、甚至是对整个银行业的利空(坏消息)。甚至还有不少散户怀疑它即将出炉的业绩会被serbadk坏账拖累,资产素质也备受质疑。再加上欧美银行业频频传来被接管的坏消息也进一步打击了投资者的情绪。我国的银行股都纷纷的跌到52周新低,部份投资者选择直接避开银行股,而BIMB应该是跌得最深的银行了,因此我就认定它成为这次的抄底目标。(RHBbank的股息率也有7.3%,但跌势没那么重,所以我只买少少)
我是喜欢反向押注于高概率的事件上,群众不看好的我就越喜欢,前提是未来有值得期待的咚咚。在看了BIMB年报后,我认为BIMB的展望还不错,经济低迷或会增加GIL至1.6%,可这也比同行平均值1.7%来得低,实在没必要过于担忧。
我的想法是:
1. 3年内会有个牛市(哪怕是小牛),也能带动股价回到3块吧?(潜在回酬就有63%以上-以184价格计算)
2. 若BIMB能维持60%的派息率,那DY就有到7.5%了。(3年潜在回酬率22.5%)
3. BIMB三大股东Tabung Haji, EPF与PNB加起来的股权就超过了70%。政府无论如何都不会让它出事的。
3年潜在85%回酬率的前提下,我认为Bimb是很值得投机的标的了,搞不好一两年内能开个半番我也满足了啊。基于我手头上有着50%的现金,我就从2.1左右开始逐步买入,最低在1.82也扫了不少货,让它一跃就成为了我组合的老大。(这两个星期跌得很急,我几乎每天都加码了50张左右,10个交易日就买到500张++)
今天出席了E-AGM后,我对这一次的抄底更有信心了,主要是确定了serbadk的烂帐已全面注销,2023年的借贷预计会增长7-8%,NIM的预测也调高到2.2%,同时管理层也表示有信心维持GIL在1.5%以下的水平。我想,若它继续跌下去,或许我会继续摊平到1000张吧?
http://tengkhan.blogspot.com/2023/05/bimb.html
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