CURRENCY:MYR : Asia Forex: US jobs, weak China trade hurt Asia FX; ringgit, rupiah lowest since 2008-09 crisis
SINGAPORE (Dec 8): Most emerging Asian currencies fell on Monday with Malaysia's ringgit and Indonesia's rupiah at lows since the 2008-09 global financial crisis as strong U.S. jobs data boosted expectations of an early Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Regional units also came under pressure as China's November imports unexpectedly fell, while exports growth eased, increasing concerns over a sharp slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. The Chinese yuan turned weaker despite the central bank setting a stronger official guidance rate.
The ringgit hit a five-year low as oil prices kept falling, adding to worries that lower crude prices would hurt Malaysia's current account and fiscal deficit.
Spot rupiah slid to a six-year trough on the year-end dollar demand from local companies.
Thailand's baht weakened past a psychological support at 33.00 per dollar to hit its weakest since January when political conflicts in Thailand hit local financial markets.
U.S. employers added 321,000 jobs in November, the most since January 2012 and much stronger than expected, data showed on Friday. The data powered the dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's performance against six major currencies, to five-year highs.
"With estimated net portfolio inflows dissipating into the year end, expect Asian currency vulnerability to persist into the year-end," said Emmanuel Ng, a foreign exchange strategist with OCBC Bank, in a note to clients.
Emerging Asian currencies have been weakening so far this year on fears that higher U.S. interest rates will erode attractiveness of higher yields in the region.
RINGGIT
The ringgit lost as much as 0.9 percent to 3.5030 per dollar, its weakest since Sept 2009.
Against the Singapore dollar, the Malaysian unit fell to 2.6492, its weakest since January 1998.
Oil prices fell by more than a dollar to their lowest levels since 2009 after Morgan Stanley cut its price forecast for Brent crude.
The central bank was spotted intervening to limit depreciation in the worst-performing emerging Asian currency so far this year, traders said.
Still, the ringgit is expected to weaken to 3.5470 to the U.S. dollar, the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of its appreciation between 2009 and 2011, as it weakened past a psychological support at 3.5000, analysts and traders said.
"You just want to go long USD and make a lot of money," a senior Malaysian bank trader in Kuala Lumpur.
RUPIAH
The rupiah fell 0.6 percent to 12,365 per dollar, its weakest since November 2008.
The official Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR),which the central bank introduced last year in an effort tomanage exchange rate fluctuations, was fixed at 12,352 rupiah per dollar, the weakest since the launch.
"The stronger payrolls report was enough to push 1 monthUSD/IDR back above the 12,400 level," said Jonathan Cavenagh, senior FX strategist with Westpac in a client note.
The rupiah's one-month non-deliverable forwards eased to 12,450 per dollar, its weakest since March 2009.
"Unless we see heavy intervention today, it's hard to not tosee further upside in the pair, with dips back to 12,340/60 likely to generate good support. Upside targets for the market are likely to be for a move towards the 12,800 level on a multi-week outlook."
CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR
Change on the day at 0430 GMT
Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move
Japan yen 121.49 121.53 +0.03
Sing dlr 1.3225 1.3226 +0.01
Taiwan dlr 31.189 31.192 +0.01
Korean won 1117.00 1114.10 -0.26
Baht 33.08 32.89 -0.57
*Peso 44.54 44.54 +0.00
Rupiah 12353.00 12295.00 -0.47
Rupee 61.91 61.77 -0.23
Ringgit 3.5020 3.4710 -0.89
Yuan 6.1554 6.1502 -0.08
Change so far in 2014
Currency Latest bid End prev year Pct Move
Japan yen 121.49 105.28 -13.35
Sing dlr 1.3225 1.2632 -4.48
Taiwan dlr 31.189 29.950 -3.97
Korean won 1117.00 1055.40 -5.51
Baht 33.08 32.86 -0.67
Peso 44.54 44.40 -0.33
Rupiah 12353.00 12160.00 -1.56
Rupee 61.91 61.80 -0.18
Ringgit 3.5020 3.2755 -6.47
Yuan 6.1554 6.0539 -1.65
* Financial markets are closed on heavy rains and strong winds caused by Typhoon Hagupit.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com
SINGAPORE (Dec 8): Most emerging Asian currencies fell on Monday with Malaysia's ringgit and Indonesia's rupiah at lows since the 2008-09 global financial crisis as strong U.S. jobs data boosted expectations of an early Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Regional units also came under pressure as China's November imports unexpectedly fell, while exports growth eased, increasing concerns over a sharp slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. The Chinese yuan turned weaker despite the central bank setting a stronger official guidance rate.
The ringgit hit a five-year low as oil prices kept falling, adding to worries that lower crude prices would hurt Malaysia's current account and fiscal deficit.
Spot rupiah slid to a six-year trough on the year-end dollar demand from local companies.
Thailand's baht weakened past a psychological support at 33.00 per dollar to hit its weakest since January when political conflicts in Thailand hit local financial markets.
U.S. employers added 321,000 jobs in November, the most since January 2012 and much stronger than expected, data showed on Friday. The data powered the dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's performance against six major currencies, to five-year highs.
"With estimated net portfolio inflows dissipating into the year end, expect Asian currency vulnerability to persist into the year-end," said Emmanuel Ng, a foreign exchange strategist with OCBC Bank, in a note to clients.
Emerging Asian currencies have been weakening so far this year on fears that higher U.S. interest rates will erode attractiveness of higher yields in the region.
RINGGIT
The ringgit lost as much as 0.9 percent to 3.5030 per dollar, its weakest since Sept 2009.
Against the Singapore dollar, the Malaysian unit fell to 2.6492, its weakest since January 1998.
Oil prices fell by more than a dollar to their lowest levels since 2009 after Morgan Stanley cut its price forecast for Brent crude.
The central bank was spotted intervening to limit depreciation in the worst-performing emerging Asian currency so far this year, traders said.
Still, the ringgit is expected to weaken to 3.5470 to the U.S. dollar, the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of its appreciation between 2009 and 2011, as it weakened past a psychological support at 3.5000, analysts and traders said.
"You just want to go long USD and make a lot of money," a senior Malaysian bank trader in Kuala Lumpur.
RUPIAH
The rupiah fell 0.6 percent to 12,365 per dollar, its weakest since November 2008.
The official Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR),which the central bank introduced last year in an effort tomanage exchange rate fluctuations, was fixed at 12,352 rupiah per dollar, the weakest since the launch.
"The stronger payrolls report was enough to push 1 monthUSD/IDR back above the 12,400 level," said Jonathan Cavenagh, senior FX strategist with Westpac in a client note.
The rupiah's one-month non-deliverable forwards eased to 12,450 per dollar, its weakest since March 2009.
"Unless we see heavy intervention today, it's hard to not tosee further upside in the pair, with dips back to 12,340/60 likely to generate good support. Upside targets for the market are likely to be for a move towards the 12,800 level on a multi-week outlook."
CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR
Change on the day at 0430 GMT
Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move
Japan yen 121.49 121.53 +0.03
Sing dlr 1.3225 1.3226 +0.01
Taiwan dlr 31.189 31.192 +0.01
Korean won 1117.00 1114.10 -0.26
Baht 33.08 32.89 -0.57
*Peso 44.54 44.54 +0.00
Rupiah 12353.00 12295.00 -0.47
Rupee 61.91 61.77 -0.23
Ringgit 3.5020 3.4710 -0.89
Yuan 6.1554 6.1502 -0.08
Change so far in 2014
Currency Latest bid End prev year Pct Move
Japan yen 121.49 105.28 -13.35
Sing dlr 1.3225 1.2632 -4.48
Taiwan dlr 31.189 29.950 -3.97
Korean won 1117.00 1055.40 -5.51
Baht 33.08 32.86 -0.67
Peso 44.54 44.40 -0.33
Rupiah 12353.00 12160.00 -1.56
Rupee 61.91 61.80 -0.18
Ringgit 3.5020 3.2755 -6.47
Yuan 6.1554 6.0539 -1.65
* Financial markets are closed on heavy rains and strong winds caused by Typhoon Hagupit.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com
