WELLCAL (7231) – Fundamental Analysis (31 Jan 2015)

WELLCAL (7231) – Fundamental Analysis (31 Jan 2015)

WELLCAL Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/15Sn0bi

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/nuan5m5

My View:-

Valuation:
       
5-Y DCF:
           
Good Scenario: 2.02 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
           
Base Scenario: 1.78 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
           
Bad Scenario: 1.57 (Fair value uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
           
Ugly Scenario: 1.38 (Fair value uncertainty: EXTREME)
           
If growth of FCFF in the next 5 years is 18.5%, WELLCAL still worth 1.8.
       
Absolute EY%:
           
Trailing:
               
FY14 (EPS: 0.089) – Fair value 1.27 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
               
R4Q (EPS: 0.089) – Fair value 1.27 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
           
Forward:
               
FY15 (EPS: 0.1) – Fair value 1.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: EXTREME)
               
FY16 (EPS: 0.11) – Fair value 1.58 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
           
EPS applied to reach the current stock price (1.66): 0.109
   
WELLCAL’s valuation is not attractive
   
Despite good fundamental of this company, I am still not comfortable to buy WELLCAL now.

Latest Financial – Annual Report 2014 (30 Jan 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1866089

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WELLCAL.

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