WILLOW (0008) – Fundamental Analysis (26 Feb 2015)

WILLOW (0008) – Fundamental Analysis (26 Feb 2015)


WILLOW Analysis:-

Excel – http://1drv.ms/1DZuBUk

Notes – http://tinyurl.com/mxgn8b6

My View:-

Valuation:
       
5-Y DCF:
           
Good Scenario: 1.14 (Fair value uncertainty: LOW)
           
Base Scenario: 1.02 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
           
Bad Scenario: 0.91 (Fair value uncertainty: MEDIUM)
           
Ugly Scenario: 0.81 (Fair value uncertainty: HIGH)
          
At current price (0.78), based on RDCF, assumption of FCFF growth rate in the next 5 years is -3%.
       
Absolute EY%:
           
Trailing:
               
FY14 (EPS: 0.072) – Fair value 0.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
               
R4Q (EPS: 0.072) – Fair value 0.68 (Fair Value Uncertainty: VERY HIGH)
           
Forward:
               
FY15 (EPS: 0.075) – Fair value 0.71 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
               
FY16 (EPS: 0.082) – Fair value 0.78 (Fair Value Uncertainty: HIGH)
           
EPS applied to reach the current stock price (0.78): 0.082
   
I think the current price already factored in the future earnings. Despite WILLOW is undervalued in terms of FCFF, WILLOW future earnings may not support the assumption.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (25 Feb 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1884985

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of WILLOW.

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