SKPETRO (5218) – Fundamental Analysis (25 Mar 2015)
SKPETRO Analysis:-
Excel – http://1drv.ms/1brOckc
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/nagx3x2
My View:-
Valuation:
Absolute EY%:
Trailing:
FY15 (EPS: 0.193) – Fair value 4.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
R4Q (EPS: 0.239) – Fair value 5.49 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
Forward:
FY16 (EPS: 0.19) – Fair value 4.37 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
FY17 (EPS: 0.212) – Fair value 4.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.3): 0.1
As for DCF, as SKPETRO does not disclose details of Operating Cash Flow, I will calculate DCF after SKPETRO releases Annual Report 2015.
25 Mar 2015 – Orderbook remains healthy at approximately RM25.7b, stretching up to year 2024, with approximately RM19b in extension options.
25 Mar 2015 – At the end of FY15 (2.6x of FY15 revenue) with 28% (RM7.3 billion) and 21% (RM5.5 billion) would be burned-out in FY16 and FY17 respectively.
Valuation of SKPETRO is very attractive as the company’s locked-in order book remains solid and that its oil fields are still in the black.
In FY15, SKPETRO FY15 normalised earnings rose by 6% yoy to RM1,154m
The DES and Fab & HUC segments registered topline growth with the exception of OCSS segment. DES segment remains as the key contributor with almost equal PBT contribution from Energy and Drilling.
The company has locked-in approximately >RM7b worth of jobs to be executed for FY16. Including revenue contribution from the Energy segment (approximately RM2b per year) and excluding joint-venture project portions, SKPETRO will still need to replenish and execute >RM2b worth of jobs in FY16 to at least match the normalised earnings achieved in FY15.
The weak global crude oil price and coupled with Petronas’ capex cut are still the key risks in FY16.
Management remains confident to be included in the SC’s May 2015’s Shariah compliant list.
I will hold and continue to accumulate SKPETRO.
Latest Financial – Q4 2015 Financial Report (24 Mar 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1910805
At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO.
SKPETRO Analysis:-
Excel – http://1drv.ms/1brOckc
Notes – http://tinyurl.com/nagx3x2
My View:-
Valuation:
Absolute EY%:
Trailing:
FY15 (EPS: 0.193) – Fair value 4.43 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
R4Q (EPS: 0.239) – Fair value 5.49 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
Forward:
FY16 (EPS: 0.19) – Fair value 4.37 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
FY17 (EPS: 0.212) – Fair value 4.87 (Fair Value Uncertainty: LOW)
EPS applied to reach the current stock price (2.3): 0.1
As for DCF, as SKPETRO does not disclose details of Operating Cash Flow, I will calculate DCF after SKPETRO releases Annual Report 2015.
25 Mar 2015 – Orderbook remains healthy at approximately RM25.7b, stretching up to year 2024, with approximately RM19b in extension options.
25 Mar 2015 – At the end of FY15 (2.6x of FY15 revenue) with 28% (RM7.3 billion) and 21% (RM5.5 billion) would be burned-out in FY16 and FY17 respectively.
Valuation of SKPETRO is very attractive as the company’s locked-in order book remains solid and that its oil fields are still in the black.
In FY15, SKPETRO FY15 normalised earnings rose by 6% yoy to RM1,154m
The DES and Fab & HUC segments registered topline growth with the exception of OCSS segment. DES segment remains as the key contributor with almost equal PBT contribution from Energy and Drilling.
The company has locked-in approximately >RM7b worth of jobs to be executed for FY16. Including revenue contribution from the Energy segment (approximately RM2b per year) and excluding joint-venture project portions, SKPETRO will still need to replenish and execute >RM2b worth of jobs in FY16 to at least match the normalised earnings achieved in FY15.
The weak global crude oil price and coupled with Petronas’ capex cut are still the key risks in FY16.
Management remains confident to be included in the SC’s May 2015’s Shariah compliant list.
I will hold and continue to accumulate SKPETRO.
Latest Financial – Q4 2015 Financial Report (24 Mar 2015) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/1910805
At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO.
