These few days, i had been hearing a lot of bad news circulating around.
A lot of bad auras and bad atmosphere around the air. First will be the
oil price. Oil price had been plunging and plunging, continue to
break new low. From around USD110 in mid of 2014, plunging to now
around USD32 in only 2 years. And a lot of forecast from big financial
groups, such as Goldman Sachs forecasting that the Brent Crude Oil will
be below USD20[1].
 |
| Brent Crude Oil as of 12 Jan 2016 10.02pm |
A lot of big companies had been hit by the low crude oil prices,
especially the Oil and Gas Companies. Some of them are already planning
for the worst if the Brent Crude Oil stays low. Lesser and lesser
projects from the Oil and Gas Industry.
Second will be the USD/RM forex. Our Ringgit had weakened a lot,
from USD/RM of RM3.2 to now USD/RM of RM4.3773 in 2 years. Our weakening
RM had impacted a lot on the heavy industries which are importing their
raw materials from overseas. Till now, there is still no sign of
recovering. As USD had increased their interest rate, Malaysia expected
to have a lot of money outflow from the country. When there is money
outflow from our country, our Ringgit will be weaker and weaker.
 |
| USD/MYR as of 12 Jan 2016 9.59pm |
The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to USD95.3
bil as at 31 December 2015 compared to USD115.9 bil as at end 2014[2].
In just 1 year, our international reserves had dropped 17%. If US is
going to increase the interest rate for the second time, i think the
international reserves will be even lower. With higher USD, a lot of
companies are suffering lesser profit or even losses as some of the raw
materials are denominated and transacted in USD.
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Third will be the job retrenchments. A total of 17,680 people in Malaysia lost their jobs in 2015[3].
Banks, Oil and Gas industries, heavy industries are retrenching their
staffs. I do not know what will be happening in 2016. If the trend is
worse than 2015, there might be some retrenchments also. So, it is
advisable to just hold on to our current positions and try our best to
survive in the current situation.
 |
| A total of 17,680 people losses their jobs in 2015 |
I personally feel the pinch of the inflation. When the LRT fares
increased, my expenses are getting higher. Tolls being increased, no
more subsidy, public transports being increased. Fuf, when will my
salary increase? Hahahah~
 |
| Everything going up except my salary =P |
Today i read from The Edge Financial Daily[4]. I am absolutely agree with the title. Even among my friends, my colleagues, the hot topic now is job security.
Job security is the most important in our society and country now. Job
security will lead to society security, society security will lead to
economics, and coming back, the economics will lead to job security. All
of these is a cycle. If people are satisfied and happy with the job
opportunities offered, everyone will have a job. The problems such as,
theft, pickpockets, burglaries, in the society will be lesser. When the
whole community is living in peace and harmony, then the economy of our
country will grow. If one of the elements is disrupted, then the cycle
will be affected as well.
 |
| The Edge Financial Daily dated 12 January 2016 |
Well, talking so much on the negativity. I think it is enough. Next
question, is the worst is yet to come? I don't know. Nobody had the
answer. I can also give my own predictions on the oil price and the
USD/RM. But all of these are predictions, and if i got it correct, so
what? If i got it wrong, so what? The problem is not what will be happening next. It should be how are we going to face these situations? I
remember in one of my post, i mentioned about there are 3 types of
people in this world. One is always complaining; one is neutral,
accepting everything; the last one is opportunist, finding ways to wave
through the hardships. Which one should we be?
Just when the oil price is low and the RM is weakening, who had thought
that these companies had been making handsome profits? Had anyone think
that we can earn from the stock market even though the economy is not so
good? Well, where there is a will, there is a way. We certainly can profit from panic. Let's look at some counters:
1. PETRONM - Downstream Oil and Gas industry processes on the low crude oil and exports its products in USD
 |
| PETRONM |
2. SCGM - Benefits from the low Crude Oil and 47% of its products are exported overseas earning USD.
 |
| SCGM |
3. a) POHUAT
- Exports furnitures to US. POHUAT benefits as demand of home
furnitures and office furnitures are recovering aligning with recovering
US markets and higher demands from Canada.
 |
| POHUAT |
b) LIIHEN - Furniture counter exports to US earning USD as well
 |
| LIIHEN |
4. TOPGLOV - Q1 2016's net profit almost tripled due to the weakening
RM. Most exports to overseas and they will have corporate exercises in
this year.
 |
| TOPGLOV |
5. INSTACO - Have several projects and partnerships with CRCC (China
Railway Construction Corporation Limited in Malaysia). CIMB had given a
TP of 0.70.
 |
| INSTACO |
6. INARI - Will be benefiting from the exporting EnE sector. Under
the highlight of a lot of fund houses and picked as top picks for a few
investment banks.
 |
| INARI |
Are we still thinking what should we do during these difficult moments?
Are we still thinking of how to make money in the stock market? As we
are still figuring out for answers, there are already some people
profiting from the market, waiting for the next downfall to pick up good
fundamental stocks. Are we slow to react or to take action now? Of
course NO! All of the counters above had increased a lot. They are not
lucky picks. They are picked because they adhere to the theme now. Our
focus now should be on the export counters earning USD and those counters benefiting from the low crude oil. Or at least, we can follow the steps of the fund houses.
It is time to step out from our comfort zone considering that the
current global market situation is not so pleasant. It is time for us to
gain some knowledge and learn about investing. Investing skills are not
taught in the school or university. We ourselves need to reach out to
gain more knowledge. Investment itself is risky, but if you learn more,
read more, study more, the risks will be reduced. Emotions plays the
biggest role in making decision. With the knowledge on the macro
economic, we can make better decisions. That is why i come out with the
phrase Wind Rider, Gainvestor, ride the wind and gainvest.
Investing for me is a tool for me to have extra knowledge and i hope to
gain some passive income through investing. Knowledge itself is a kind
of blessing. As a Gen-Y living in the modern society, i know it is hard
for us to survive nowadays. With car loans, house loans, credit card
debts and a lot of other mountain debts, we certainly had a lot of
challenges resisting the temptations in the world. But, at the same
time, we do have a lot of free times. So let's utilize our time and
start to invest in a knowledge!
Again, I would like to take this opportunity to gather everyone who are
seriously interested in learning investment or learning a new knowledge.
I will share with everybody all the knowledge that i have learnt and
experienced (of course for a certain amount of fees). You can always
refer to my stock picks and determine whether my wind riding investment
style suits you or not. (My report card for October, November and December).
Let's not talk about the profit and loss, let's just talk about
investment analysis and interests. If you are interested, or you have
any queries or comments, you can always drop me an email at
gainvestor10sai@gmail.com or you can communicate with me through FB
messenger at Gainvestor10sai.
I truly appreciate all the feedbacks, no matter good or bad. I believe,
in order for me to be better, i will accept all of the criticisms and
comments.
If you want to go FAST, go alone. If you want to go FAR, we go TOGETHER!
Together, we take the road not taken. The more we LEARN, the more we
EARN...
I strongly believe that by seizing appropriate KNOWLEDGE, we will be able to LEARN fast and more... All of us deserved a good KNOWLEDGE on investment. Don't
waste our time and money in the market anymore, looking for the best
formula. In my opinion, we need to be discipline and we need to have a
strong mindset. I think all of you deserved to obtain an appropriate
knowledge, give yourself a chance, and also give me a change. What say
you?
Let's Ride the Wind and Gainvest Together!
Gainvestor 10sai
13 January 2016
12.31am
12.31am
Sources:
[1]: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN0UL02520160107
[2]: http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_press&pg=en_press_all&ac=3317&lang=en
[3]: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/20000-lost-their-jobs-in-2015-worse-in-2016-says-employers-group
[4]: The Edge Financial Daily: 12 January 2016
http://gainvestor10sai.blogspot.my/2016/01/lets-ride-wind-and-gainvest-together.html
