PETRONM (3042) - Petron (RM 9.60) - Capitalizing on the Surge in Crude Oil Price & Refinery Margins!




Much have been analyzed on Petron Malaysia (3042). So I would just jump in on key points why I am bullish on this stock.

1) Surge in Brent Crude Oil Price

Year 2017:
Jan - $53.59

Feb - $54.35

Mar - $50.90

1QFY17 Profits: rm108.54m

Apr -  $52.16

May - $49.89

Jun - $46.17

2QFY17 Profits: rm90.99m (rm39m gains on disposal of service stations for MRT development)

Jul  -  $47.66

Aug - $49.94

Sep - $???

3QFY17 Profits: rm???

As there is some correlation of Petron's profits to crude oil prices,it is key to monitor its movement. Brent Crude Oil is most likely to settle above $50 / barrel for September. As it's a closing month for 3QFY17, Petron Malaysia should make some inventory gains. Do note that Brent Crude Price averaged at $44.68 for 3QFY16.



2) Surge in Brent Crack Spread

Product cracks continue to improve, holding steady above $10 / barrel from 1 August to 11 September.







3) Sales Volume



In Petron's 2QFY17 report, the company registered 8.5 million barrels of total sales volume, a 9% improvement from previous corresponding period. I am of the view that Petron will continue to register higher total sales volume in coming period.

4) Is Shale Boom Over?

Recent studies have indicated that, US companies would have to continue setting up new wells as the peak for oil extraction is less than 2 years.

Please refer to https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_rU0To60a0TV3ZSSWFfcHVpUjg/view for further detail.

Whether that's true is too early to tell, we would have to monitor its development, on number of new wells & shale oil total production. 

Valuations:

If Petron Malaysia could record a rm70m net profits for its 3QFY17 (rm46.79m, 3QFY16), its immediate 4 rolling quarters Earnings Per Share (EPS) would stand at rm1.42. With a Price Earnings Multiple of 8x, Petron Malaysia should be trading at rm11.32. From current price of rm9.60, there is 18% upside for this stock.

Any downside risk would be the fall in crude oil prices , product cracks and mishaps / maintenance shutdown in its refinery plant in Port Dickson.





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