HIBISCS (5199) - 5199 HIBISCUS 大紅花石油走向何处?

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谢谢,
Lau333
@based on previous works in Shell Trilogy: The Final Call, North Sabah produced 2.2x more oil but only 1/4 profit per barrel.
Using back all the assumption, the additional profit from NS should be 2.2 x 0.25=0.55x Anasuria.
So, based on estimate 1Q2018F of RM11.4m, total net profit including both Anasuria and NS should be 1.55 x 11.4 = RM17.7m.
个人简单算:
--hibiscs 2018财年赚17.7m x 4=70.8m
70.8m (净利) ÷ 1.544b(股数)=4.5 sen(eps)
取Pe=20 ,股价=90 sen
--注:以上是目前油价计,未來油价上升其净利可提高。公司可开采年达:anasuria 20年,
NS 22年。内在价值。
--收购成北沙巴油田后,每日生产12500桶原油,这笔帳不少哦。
--大众早前推介RM 1.06,回教,大马投行也推介85 sen,81sen,里面内容有提示NS的收购,
想一想管理层会透露风声吧。
-- AT 29 SEPTEMBER 2017:股市大戶公积金为第七大股东。
 CitiGroup Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd Employees Provident Fund Board (Pheim) :
Number of Shares :34,172,000   
% of Total Shareholdings :2.27
只供参考,買賣自负。
a)

Crude Oil Major Breakout.....

Author:   |    Publish date: 

Breakout in Crude Oil

  posted in: Chartscrude oilEnergy |  0
WTI crude oil just completed an impressive trading session to wrap up a notable week which saw ‘black gold’ rally ~4%. From a technical perspective crude oil is now in a 4-month uptrend which has been steady and gradual in its ascent (with plenty of pullbacks along the way):
WTI Crude Oil (Daily)

The week began with a ‘golden cross’ (50-day moving average crossing above 200-day moving average) and ended with a bang. Today’s 2.4% rally was the first time in a while in which buyers were almost in a panic to get long crude oil. I believe this is especially noteworthy given the fact that sentiment on oil is fairly muted with most market commentators believing that the rally won’t last long and some even being quite vocal about $55/barrel being a ‘ceiling’ for WTI.
Whenever price is moving contrary to the conventional wisdom it is especially significant; this appears to be the situation in the crude oil market right now.
Oil related equities also finished the week strong with the $OIH (Oil Services ETF) printing a bullish engulfing candlestick on the heaviest volume in months:
Earlier in the week I had been pointing that OIH was becoming extremely oversold and today I added some additional comments on valuation on the CEO.ca index stream. We are long OIH in the Trading Lab and if price closes back above the 50-day moving average next week it will add confidence that this sector put in an important low this week.
b)

New Secular Bull For Crude Oil...Time To Buy Kangkong...

Author:   |    Publish date: 


The above was 70 yrs crude oil chart. The  bear correction in the crude oil market from 2007-2016 finally over. We are in the beginning of another major secular bull market expect to run for another 10-20 years b4 elctrical car finally come into the market on big way. Stock in this sector are all cheap cheap like "kangkong". If you listen to those analyst saying that crude oil will drop to 10 then u will regret for life another one more time, just like how u miss for steel stock on early 2016 when all selling at rock bottom price.
The run for O&G likely to repeat what happen in steel sector. Steel sector was peak in 2007 and took almost 10 yrs to finish the bear correction cycle. Similarly crud eoil hit 147+ in 2007 then bottom out at 26+ at beginning of 2016. With crude oil now has confirmed making higher low (26+ and 42+) and soon you will be seeing higher high when break above 56+ b4 yr end, then O&G stock will expect to run wild like what happen to steel stock. The steel stock has generally ran up about 5-7x after 1 yr and u will expect O&G stocks will repeat the similar run as well.
When a market turnaround from a major bottom, 1st always look for the market leader. For O&G, obvious leader is Senergy, however company that involve in oil rigs biz likely be the one 1st to benefit from rising crude oil prices. In this case, obviously UMWOG is the biggest beneficiary.

From chart, UMWOG obviously making convergence on both daily and weekly chart indicating that bottom is coming. This stock likely to be the biggest turnaround in the O&G industry for 2018. 3 main reason behind it
1. Huge back up by Govt link company like PNB, EPF and TBH
2. Strong biz connection with Petronas as both heavily owend by Govt
3. Worst is over due to completion of corporate exercise.
You would be surprise if UMWOG surpass RM1 in 2018 as no one like themselves to be called a penny stock.

c)

Traders Are Betting On $100 Oil In 2018


Barrels
While oil industry executives are preparing to live and profit in the world of $50 oil over the next few years, some enthusiast investors have been betting on $100 oil for December 2018 options.
Open interest in $100 call options for December 2018 has tripled in one week to exceed 30,000 lots, according to Reuters. Open interest in that contract is now equal to the most active contract of the December 2017 options—$60 call options. The $100 December 2018 options is the largest strike for all of 2018.
So you’re saying there’s a chance
Although bullish reports over the past few weeks point to stronger-than-expected oil demand growth, and although global oversupply has reduced over the summer, the bets for $100 oil at the end of next year are still way above estimates and forecasts. But that hasn’t stopped some traders from shooting the moon.
After oil prices entered bull-market territory at the beginning of this week, analysts started weighing in again on the future price of oil: How much could it rise? Could the increase be sustained?
Over the past week alone, we’ve seen one analyst predict prices of $80 per barrel. A panel of several other analysts forecast a price drop if OPEC were to end its production cut deal as planned in March 2018.
Citi added its two cents: whatever OPEC does, supply will likely get tighter next year, suggesting that prices would head upward.
Three years of low oil prices have constrained investments in conventional projects, and the IEA has just recently reiterated its warning that an oil price spike is in the cards in 2020, citing growing demand for oil that could outstrip the pace of new conventional supply.
“The lack of spending always comes home to roost,” Richard Robinson, who manages the global energy fund of Ashburton Investments, told Reuters.
“With inventories soon to balance, the psyche of the market should move and the questions posed by investors will also change. With the dynamics currently in place, we expect to witness significant opportunities as the oil price moves higher,” said Robinson, who doesn’t see oil reaching $100.
According to a recent note by Energy Aspects, as carried by Reuters:
“Our point is there is not enough oil at $50. We don’t deny that demand growth can slow materially from around 2026 ... But legacy projects peak this decade, well before demand is likely to, setting up for an imbalance.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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