-Financial products and services comprising personal banking,
- Islamic banking
- investment banking
- nominee services, sale and management of unit trust funds
-bancassurance and general insurance products
SUMMARY OF FIVE-YEAR GROUP GROWTH
业务分析 SEGMENTAL ANALYSIS
Group Corporate Structure 集团公司的结构 (22 FEB 2018 )
*FY2017税前利润RM7.12 billion ,对比去年增加8.6% 。
*归属于股东的净利润RM5.47 billion，增加了5.1% 。
*Net return on equity 15.8% .
*Dividend 61 sen per share,股息支付23.6亿令吉，占集团2017年净利润的43.1％。
*Digital Banking Revolution 是银行未来的发展趋势。
TAN SRI DATO’ SRI DR. TEH HONG PIOW
Founder and Chairman
22 February 2018
LETTER TO STAKEHOLDERS
*Pin＆Pay项目的实施支付卡PIN验证（Credit Card & Debit Card取消了签名验证，由输入Pin 密码取代）
顺带跟进TA SECURITIES 分析
Resilient Foreign Shareholding Level
Foreign investors have reportedly been reducing their exposure in Malaysian
stocks for several straight weeks. Most banking stocks were also subjected to
foreign selling pressures. Likewise, Public Bank (PBB) saw some softening in its
foreign shareholding level although we note that the level of attrition was not
as severe as the selldown experienced by some of its peers. Rising to an alltime
high of around 39.5% in March 2018, the foreign shareholding level has
only eased to around 39.1% (based on latest May data) since the General Election (GE).
We believe the strength in PBB’s foreign shareholding levels reflects confidence
in the stock’s defensive qualities. Amid rising global volatilities and uncertainties
in the domestic market, PBB’s fundamentals remain sound. Boasting healthy
asset quality (with gross impaired loans (GIL) ratio 0.5% vs. industry’s 1.6%) of
and modest earnings growth prospects (of around 8%), we predict respectable
ROE of around 15% for FY18-20. Despite the implementation of MFRS 9,
management foresees stable asset quality as total credit charge for PBB is guided to be maintained below 15 bps.
Beneficiary of Pickup in Consumer Sentiments
Among others, our 8% earnings growth forecast is premised on a loan growth
projection of 5% coupled with stable net interest margin (NIM) of +2 bps YoY.
We believe the recent zerorisation of GST will provide some uplift to
consumer sentiments. We believe the auto segment would benefit most from
this short tax holiday due to attractive savings from not having to pay GST.
Commanding around 28.5% in market share and given its sizeable exposure of
16% in hire purchase to a total loan portfolio of RM306.8bn, we believe PBB could benefit from this spurt in consumer confidence.
Margin Compression a Downside Risk
Muting potential gains from the pickup in loans are risks from margin
compression. Despite the increase in OPR earlier in the year, we do foresee
margin pressures coming from certain segments of the loan market such as
residential mortgages as well as in the deposit space. Here, we note that PBB
has a market share of around 20% in the housing loan space. Given its sizeable
exposure of 36% in residential mortgages to total loans, we do foresee some
potential downside risk in NIM. Also posing some risk to NIM is the HP
portfolio as PBB recently launched a campaign to attract new car buyers
rushing to take advantage of the zero GST. As such, we foresee the HP segment to be subjected to some pricing pressure in 3QCY18.
Stronger Growth Envisaged from FY19
According to management, confidence, especially amongst the SMEs, have
improved post the GE. SMEs could benefit from this zerorisation of GST as
cash flows and process flows improve. SME retailers could also gain from
better sales due to the uplift in consumer sentiments coupled with Hari Raya
celebrations. Nevertheless, we do not expect better sentiments to immediately
translate into a surge in demand for loans for investment purposes, or business
activities as businesses and investors await more clarity in policy and
procedures from the new government.
We are more sanguine about PBB’s growth prospects in FY19 and FY20,
where we project net profit to improve by 8.6% and 9.1% YoY. Our forecasts
are premised on assumptions of stronger YoY loan growth of 7% and 9%,
healthier fee and FX income growth of around 10% along with management’s ability to keep credit charge and overhead expenses in check.
Valuation and recommendation
We make no change to our earnings estimates, for now. We maintain a
favourable view on PBB due to: 1) the bank’s lead in loans growth and ROE, 2)
operating efficiency (based on cost to income ratio and PBT per employee), 3)
beneficiary of a pickup in consumer and SME activities, and 4) resilient asset
quality. We foresee the bank to likely maintain its current dividend payout
ratio of around 43% as PBB strengthens its capital position ahead of additional
counter-cyclical buffers and Domestic Systemically – Important Bank (DSIB)
buffer, which are yet to be introduced by BNM. To recap, PBB Common
Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Capital Ratio and Total Capital Ratio stood at 12.2% and
15.8%, slightly below the sector’s 13.2% and 17.5% respectively.
However, given the increased market volatilities due to global trade tensions
and rising interest rates concerns, we readjust our assumption on market risk
premium for our Gordon Growth Valuation Model to 5.5%. Based on forward
FY19 earnings, we tweak PBB’s TP to RM25.80 from RM29.50. This values the
stock at an implied FY19e PBV of 2.2x. We reiterate our BUY
recommendation on PBB. Key upside/downside risks to PBB’s TP include: 1)
stronger-than-expected contributions from operations overseas, 2) further
spike in the sale of bancassurance and wealth management, 3) unexpected
increase in unemployment rate resulting in high default rates among retail
borrowers, and 4) potential outflow of foreign funds resulting in a sharp decline in the foreign shareholding level.
留下脚印 RM24.40 (10-8-2018)
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v(￣︶￣)y Just Do It~
By 全哥分享 （11/8/18）
进入股市就是要防止被“抢劫”， 独立思考， 因为，股价与股票的内在价值最终会取得平衡.