[MALAYAN FLOUR MILLS BHD：全球经济环境不确定的情况下，大宗商品价格和外汇汇率仍然波动]
收入增加归因于面粉和谷物交易部门的销售额增长4.6％，但被家禽整合部门的收入下降4.4％所抵消。尽管面粉和谷物交易部门在2018年第三季度产生了1,750万令吉的营业利润，但马面粉于2018年第三季度录得税前亏损（LBT）金额为370万令吉，而2017年第三季度税前利润（PBT）为RM2650万。这是由于：
（i）由于以下关键因素，家禽整合产生的经营亏损为1,320万令吉，而2017年第三季的经营溢利为910万令吉：
a）2018年第三季度的活禽价格因过去两年的最低价格而下跌。影响是1030万令吉;
b）由于合同农场遭受农业损失，合同农场不足，导致Q318肉鸡产量下降。影响是230万令吉;
c）向下调整生物资产的公允价值。影响是370万令吉;和
d）降低商品和外汇的净已实现和未实现收益。影响是380万令吉。
（ii）2018年第三季度印尼合资企业损失份额为290万令吉，而2017年第三季度的利润为340万令吉;和
（iii）2018年第三季度净利息支出较高。影响为190万令吉。
截至2018年9月30日止财政期间收入减少3.1％至17.542亿令吉，而去年同期则为18.111亿令吉。这主要是由于2018年家禽整合部门的销售额下降了14.6％，但部分被2018年面粉和谷物贸易部门销售额增长2.4％所抵消。截至2018年9月30日的财政期间，PBT下降了91.6％至680万令吉，而去年同期则为8,180万令吉。这主要是由于以下关键因素：
（i）截至2018年9月30日止九个月，家禽整合经营亏损为920万令吉，而2017年经营溢利为3,360万令吉：
a）截至2018年9月30日的财政期间降低活禽价格。影响为1,750万令吉;
b）由于受疾病影响的DOC产量较低和合同农场不足，肉鸡产量较低。影响是950万令吉;
c）生物资产公允价值下调2千万令吉;
（ii）面粉及谷物贸易部门的营业利润减少1590万令吉，主要来自2018年上半年，以下是关键因素：
a）由于小麦成本较高而未能完全转嫁给客户，因此面粉贡献率降低了530万令吉;
b）未来和期权合约和外汇的净已实现和未实现净损失，而不是2017年同期的收益。净影响为1,170万令吉。
（iii）2018年股权合营企业所遭受的损失份额为790万令吉，是因为市场竞争活动导致利润率下降，加上印尼盾兑美元汇率贬值，而2017年利润为560万令吉。
面粉和谷物交易：
虽然收入增加，2018年第三季度营业利润略有下降，原因是未来和期权合约的已实现净收益和未实现收益减少以及2018年第三季度净利息支出增加。该业务的营业利润较低，截至2018年9月30日止9个月为3,510万令吉，相比去年同期为5,090万令吉，主要是由于小麦成本上升导致利润率下降，未来净实现和未实现期权合约和外汇亏损（相比2017年同期有收益），以及2018年净利息支出增加。
家禽整合：
2018年第三季度家禽整合业务收入减少4.4％至1.812亿令吉，而2017年第三季度为1.896亿令吉，原因是由于生产肉鸡的农业利润低，加上合同农场不足导致产量下降，尽管他们的DOC产量已从2018年第三季度的包涵体肝炎（IBH）疾病中恢复。但与2017年第三季度相比，2018年第三季的活禽价格下降了14％。
2018年第三季度，家禽一体化部门的营业亏损为1,320万令吉，而2017年第三季度的盈利为910万令吉，主要是由于2018年第三季度活禽价格下跌导致产量下降及利润率下降，2018年第三季度生物资产的价值损失为780万令吉，而2017年第三季度则为400万令吉，以及2018年第三季度未来和期权合约的净实现和未实现收益较低为RM30万令吉，相比2017年第三季度为RM5百万。
截至2018年9月30日止的9个月，家禽整合部门录得收入大幅减少14.6％至5.054亿令吉，相比去年同期的5.915亿令吉，是因为生产量和活禽销售价格下降。截至2018年9月30日止9个月期间，该部门录得经营亏损920万令吉，而去年同期则录得营运溢利3360万令吉。亏损主要是由于较低的活禽价格导致利润率下降，未来净实现和未实现收益减少到30万令吉（2017年则为370万令吉），以及2018年生物资产公允价值下调RM2000万。公允价值调整是由于较低的贡献率而被用作生物资产估值的基础。
马面粉于2018年第三季录得税前亏损370万令吉，而二零一八年第二季登记的税前利润为810万令吉。家禽整合部门于2018年第三季录得经营亏损1,320万令吉，而2018年第二季度的营业利润为250万令吉。该亏损是由于2018年第三季度活禽销售价格下降以及2018年第三季度生物资产的公允价值净损失为780万令吉，而2018年第二季度为160万令吉。
前景：
在全球经济环境不确定的情况下，大宗商品价格和外汇汇率仍然波动。
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James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:
a) GBGAQRS (GABUNGAN AQRS BHD), recommended on 16 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.80, rose to RM0.96 in 1 month 12 days, total return is 20%
b) VIZIONE (VIZIONE HOLDINGS BHD), recommended on 30 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.85, rose to RM1.02 in 30 days, total return is 20%
c) BAUTO (BERMAZ AUTO BHD), recommended on 14 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.89, rose to RM2.21 (dividend RM0.0375) in 3 months 14 days, total return is 18.9%
d) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM0.94 in 6 months 27 days, total return is 18.2%
e) KGB (KELINGTON GROUP BHD), recommended on 23 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.965, rose to RM1.14 in 1 month 5 day, total return is 18.1%
f) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM0.785 (dividend RM0.007) in 5 months 16 days, total return is 10.8%
g) ELKDESA (ELK-DESA RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 18 Nov 18, initial price was RM1.27, rose to RM1.30 (dividend RM0.035) in 2 months 10 days, total return is 5.1%
我希望将我的策略分享给读者，希望他们在阅读后能够表现出色。我正在使用基本面分析（Fundamental Analysis）：
预计公司每年的增长率必须> 14％
我想说服读者学习基本面分析FA以便能从股市赚钱。
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[MALAYAN FLOUR MILLS BHD: commodity prices and foreign exchange rates remain volatile in the midst of an uncertain global economic environment]
Increase in revenue was attributed to higher sales recorded in flour and grains trading segment by 4.6% but offset by decline in the poultry integration segment by 4.4%. Despite the flour & grains trading segment generating an operating profit of RM17.5 million in Q3 2018, the Group recorded a loss before tax (LBT) amounting to RM3.7 million in Q3 2018 as compared to profit before tax (PBT) of RM26.5 million in Q3 2017. This was due to:-
(i) Operating losses incurred in poultry integration of RM13.2 million as compared to an operating profit of RM9.1 million in Q3 2017 as a result of key factors below:-
a) Depressed live bird prices in Q3 2018 arising from the lowest price in the last 2 years. Impact is RM10.3 million;
b) Broiler production volume declined in Q318 due to insufficient contract farms amidst farming losses suffered by the contract farmers. Impact is RM2.3m;
c) Downward adjustment of fair value on biological assets. Impact is RM3.7m; and
d) Lower net realised and unrealised gain on commodity & foreign exchange. Impact is RM3.8m.
(ii) Share of loss of equity accounted joint venture in Indonesia amounting to RM2.9 million in Q3 2018 as compared to a share of profit of RM3.4 million in Q3 2017; and
(iii) Higher net interest expense in Q3 2018. Impact is RM1.9 million.
Revenue decreased by 3.1% to RM1,754.2 million for the financial period ended 30 September 2018 as compared to RM1,811.1 million posted in the corresponding period in the preceding year. This was mainly due to lower sales recorded in poultry integration segment in 2018 which declined by 14.6% but was partially offset by a 2.4% increase in flour and grains trading segment's sales in 2018. For the financial period ended 30 September 2018, PBT decreased by 91.6% to RM6.8 million as compared to RM81.8 million recorded in the same period in preceding year. This was predominantly due to following key factors:-
(i) Operating loss from poultry integration amounting to RM9.2 million for the 9 months ended 30 September 2018 as compared to an operating profit of RM33.6 million in 2017:
a) Lower live bird prices for the financial period ended 30 September 2018. Impact is RM17.5m;
b) Lower production volume of broilers due to a combination of lower DOC production volume affected by disease and insufficient contract farms. Impact is RM9.5m;
c) Downward adjustment of fair value on biological assets by RM20m;
(ii) Lower operating profit in flour and grains trading segment by RM15.9 million, predominantly from first half of 2018 due to following key factors:-
a) Lower flour contribution margin of RM5.3 million due to higher wheat cost which was not fully passed on to customers;
b) Higher net realised and unrealised loss on future and option contract and foreign exchange as opposed to gain in corresponding period in 2017. Net impact is RM11.7m.
(iii) Share of loss suffered in equity accounted joint venture amounting to RM7.9 million in 2018 as compared to a share of profit of RM5.6 million in 2017 due to lower margins arising from competitive activities in the market coupled with the depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah against the US Dollar.
Flour and grains trading:
Amidst the higher revenue, the operating profit decreased slightly in Q3 2018 as a result of lower net realised and unrealised gain on future and option contracts and higher net interest expense in Q3 2018. The segment registered a lower operating profit of RM35.1 million for the 9 months ended 30 September 2018 as compared to RM50.9 million posted in the same period in the preceding year mainly due to lower margins arising from higher wheat costs, higher net realised and unrealised loss on future and option contract and foreign exchange as opposed to gain in corresponding period in 2017 and higher net interest expense in 2018.
Poultry integration:
The poultry integration segment recorded a decrease of 4.4% in revenue to RM181.2 million in Q3 2018 as compared to RM189.6 million in Q3 2017, as a result of lower production volume due to insufficient contract farms amidst low farming profits to produce broilers, although their DOC production has recovered from the Inclusion Body Hepatitis (IBH) disease in Q3 2018. This is further compounded by a 14% decline in live bird prices in Q3 2018 as compared to Q3 2017.
In Q3 2018, the poultry integration segment posted an operating loss of RM13.2 million as compared to profit of RM9.1 million in Q3 2017 mainly due to lower production volume and margins arising from depressed live bird prices in Q3 2018, higher net fair value loss on biological assets of RM7.8 million in Q3 2018 as compared to RM4.0 million in Q3 2017 as well as the lower net realised and unrealised gain on future and option contracts of RM0.3 million in Q3 2018 as compared to RM5.0 million in Q3 2017.
The poultry integration segment recorded a significant decrease of 14.6% in revenue to RM505.4 million for the 9 months ended 30 September 2018 as compared to RM591.5 million for the same period in the preceding year due to lower production volume and selling price of live birds. The segment registered an operating loss of RM9.2 million for the 9 months period ended 30 September 2018 as compared to an operating profit of RM33.6 million posted in the same period in the preceding year. The loss was mainly due to lower margins arising from lower live birds price, lower net realised and unrealised gain on future and option contracts of RM0.3 million in 2018 as compared to RM3.7 million in 2017 and the downward adjustment of fair value on biological assets by RM20.0 million in 2018. The fair value adjustment is a result of lower contribution margin which was used as a basis of valuation of biological assets.
The Group recorded a loss before tax of RM3.7 million in Q3 2018 as compared to a profit before tax of RM8.1 million registered in Q2 2018. Poultry integration segment incurred an operating loss of RM13.2 million in Q3 2018 as compared to an operating profit of RM2.5 million posted in Q2 2018. The loss was due to lower selling price of live bird in Q3 2018 as well as the higher net fair value loss on biological assets of RM7.8 million in Q3 2018 as compared to RM1.6 million in Q2 2018.
Prospects:
Commodity prices and foreign exchange rates remain volatile in the midst of an uncertain global economic environment.
------------------------------------------------
James Ng Stock Pick Performance:
Since Recommended Return:
a) GBGAQRS (GABUNGAN AQRS BHD), recommended on 16 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.80, rose to RM0.96 in 1 month 12 days, total return is 20%
b) VIZIONE (VIZIONE HOLDINGS BHD), recommended on 30 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.85, rose to RM1.02 in 30 days, total return is 20%
c) BAUTO (BERMAZ AUTO BHD), recommended on 14 Oct 18, initial price was RM1.89, rose to RM2.21 (dividend RM0.0375) in 3 months 14 days, total return is 18.9%
d) KKB (KKB ENGINEERING BHD), recommended on 1 Jul 18, initial price was RM0.795, rose to RM0.94 in 6 months 27 days, total return is 18.2%
e) KGB (KELINGTON GROUP BHD), recommended on 23 Dec 18, initial price was RM0.965, rose to RM1.14 in 1 month 5 day, total return is 18.1%
f) FRONTKN (FRONTKEN CORP BHD), recommended on 12 Aug 18, initial price was RM0.715, rose to RM0.785 (dividend RM0.007) in 5 months 16 days, total return is 10.8%
g) ELKDESA (ELK-DESA RESOURCES BHD), recommended on 18 Nov 18, initial price was RM1.27, rose to RM1.30 (dividend RM0.035) in 2 months 10 days, total return is 5.1%
I wish to share my strategy to readers, hope that they can perform well after reading this. I am using Fundamental Analysis:
the forecasted growth of a company must > 14% per year
I wish to convince readers to learn FA in order to make money from stock market.
I am providing STOCK PICK SERVICE for readers who want to make money from Malaysian stock market. Those who want to subscribe to my mailing list to achieve a good return from stock market, you can contact me at jamesngshare@gmail.com or PM me in my FB page https://web.facebook.com/jamesshareinvest/
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