为何我喜欢Jaya Tiasa （4383）
现价：0.765
目标价：1.55
Jtiasa是一家由丹斯里张晓卿控制的砂拉越棕榈油和木材公司。它在砂拉越拥有69589公顷（171958英亩）完全成熟的棕榈油种植园。
在2016财政年度，Jaya Tiasa盈利8200万令吉或每股5.6分。同年，Jtiasa的最高股价为1.79令吉。该年的CPO平均售价为RM2,770 ; 鲜果串平均售价为RM543。同年的夹板价格超过每sheet 500美元以上。
在2020财政年度，Jaya Tiasa亏损1.29亿令吉或每股7.45分。同年的最高股价是RM1.12。 CPO的平均售价为RM2,177 ；鲜果串的平均售价为RM420。如果我们阅读Jtiasa的最后一个季度业绩，它亏损了3,600万令吉，但实际上不包括木材交易的一次性减值，实际季度盈利为6,200万令吉！除此之外，Jtiasa在同年取得了1亿8100万令吉的净现金流量，以及减少了1亿6千万令吉的债务。
在最新的Jtiasa年度报告中，我们还发现Dynaquest的超级投资者梁孙健老师成为Jtiasa持有2,373,000股股票的前三十名大股东，而另一位超级投资者Kong Goon Khing成为了持有16,000,000股股票的前三十名股东。 （孔先生也是另一家棕榈油公司TDM Berhad的第四大股东。）
在经历了几年的亏损之后，Jtiasa在2020年实现了大幅度的复苏。该复苏是由于夹板价格在2020年10月恢复到每sheet 519美元以上，而CPO价格在2020年11月6日恢复到3,300令吉以上。如果不考虑减值，Jtiasa在2020年的实际利润应超过1.2亿令吉。管理层非常聪明，可以使用财务方法在2020年为Jtiasa节省至少3000万令吉的税款！
简而言之，我们预计Jtiasa在2021财政年度将会实现1.5亿令吉的净利润，或预测市盈率仅为现股价RM0.765的5.06倍市盈率。因此，我们将2021财政年度的目标价格设定为1.55令吉或10倍的市盈率。我们预计2021年砂拉越州选举Jtiasa可能会成为砂拉越的主题股，同时由于供应减少的原因未来几个月对CPO的价格有利。 由于美国大选，夹板的销售量大涨，夹板的售价也提高了。 （由于担心大众对总统选举结果感到不满，市民购买了夹板以密封商店，以防发生骚乱。）
That’s why I like Jaya Tiasa (4383)
Current price RM0.765
Target price RM1.55
Jtiasa is a sarawak palm oil and timber company controlled by Tan Sir Tiong Hiew King. It owns 69,589 hectares (171,958acres) fully matured palm oil plantations in Sarawak.
In the financial year of 2016, Jaya Tiasa made a profit of RM82millions or 5.6 earning per share. In the same year the highest share price of Jtiasa was RM1.79. The cpo average selling price of the year is RM2,770 or average ffb selling price of RM543. Plywood prices of the same year stand above USD500+ per sheet.
In the financial year 2020, Jaya Tiasa made a loss of RM129millios or loss per share of 7.45cents. In the same year the highest share price was RM1.12. The cpo average selling price is RM2,177 or average ffb selling price of RM420. If we read the last quarter result of Jtiasa, it made a loss of RM36millions, but in fact excluded the one time impairment of timber session, it actually made a profit of RM62millions in just one quarter! Besides that, Jtiasa achieved net cash flow of RM181millions and debt reduced by RM160millions in the same year.
In the latest Jtiasa annual report, we also found that Dynaquest’s super investor Mr Neoh Soon Kean emerged as top thirty shareholder of Jtiasa holding 2,373,000 shares while another super investor Mr Kong Goon Khing emerged as top thirty shareholder who held 16,000,000 shares. (Mr Kong is also the 4th largest shareholder of another palm oil company - TDM Berhad.)
Jtiasa is recovering drastically in 2020 after making a few years of losses. The recovery is due to plywood price recovering to above USD519 per sheet in Oct 2020 and CPO price recovering to over RM3,300 as at 6th Nov 2020. Without considering the impairment, the actual profit of Jtiasa in year 2020 should be above RM120millions. The management is very smart to use a financial method to save at least RM30millions tax expense for Jtiasa in 2020!
In a nutshell, we are expecting Jtiasa to make a net profit of RM150millions in financial year 2021or forward PE of just 5.06times. So we fix a target price of RM1.55 or target PE of 10times for the financial year of 2021. We are expecting Sarawak state election in 2021 and Jtiasa could lead Sarawak themes play, while a favourable pricing of CPO in next few months due to supply reduction and also higher selling price of plywood due to the US election. (Citizens bought plywood to seal their shop in case of riot due to public unhappiness towards the presidential poll result.) https://www.facebook.com/HollandStock/
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