-->

Type something and hit enter

On

 


What are the difference between dotcom bubble in 2000 and the recent glove bubble? (2000年的科技泡沫和最近的手套泡沫有什么区别?)

We all know that in 2000, every technology related stock reached their historical high, especially companies with the name “dotcom” behind it. However, their stock price dropped as much as 95% in the subsequent year, after the dotcom bubble burst. In April 2020, when glove companies in Malaysia started their uptrend movement, and their share price rose to their historical high, everyone was expecting the same to happen as history will happened again. Fortunately, the glove bubble did not burst, but what makes the difference where the share prices in both scenarios soared to an untouchable peak?

In 2000, the soaring of technology companies is based on optimism and speculation that technology will be the future of the world, where every single entity will require technology in their daily lifestyle. This statement was proved by various professionals and there is almost no different conclusion coming from other people, other than Warren Buffett who said that technology stocks were overvalued by that time. *The writer has spoken too much about Warren Buffett lately so this time he will only be included in one sentence LOL*. This also leads to more technology companies undergo IPOs by that time. Obviously, the bubble did burst in 2001 and even big technology companies such as Intel and Oracle suffered the same fate, where their share price fell drastically.

In April 2020, share price for Malaysia’s glove companies started to rise up, and eventually rose to a few hundreds and thousands of percent from its initial price. This makes a lot of investors fearful of the same bubble burst situation happen again on glove sector. Although there are several corrections from its first surge, but that is not enough to say that the bubble has burst. The most severe correction happened in September 2020, where most glove companies dropped 50% from their peak. Other investors often ask why does glove bubble different with technology bubble back in 2000? The answer is simple: profit.

Do remember that the big surge back in 2000 is purely based on speculation and optimism, where there is no actual support. Their profit does not represent its actual value, where it was way below market expectation. That means the stocks are overvalue, and the share price will obviously drop to a more rational and reasonable price, which took place in 2001. Glove companies on the other hand, do have actual demand, and their profit did improve from quarter to quarter. It is not just ordinary improvement, but improved massively, where their most recent profit can be 20 times their profit from previous year. Although the share price for glove companies have now become more stable, but it is still a worthy investment as they are mostly trading under 20 PE, and their demand is still remaining strong.

In short, every surge is share price will be required to be supported by its profit. If a company’s share price goes up but its profit does not improve, the share price will eventually go back to a more rational price. Hence, we as investors should focus more on the company’s profit, where we only invest in companies that are able to generate profit, and continuously growing its businesses.

我们都知道在2000年,每个科技相关的公司都来到他们的历史新高价位,特别是名字后面有“dotcom”的公司。但是,它们的股价就在下一年跌幅高达95%,也被称为互联网泡沫的爆破。在2020年4月,马来西亚的手套公司开始了它们的上升趋势,而他们的股价也来到了他们的历史新高,而大家都在担心历史会重演,同样的泡沫会再次爆破。幸运的是,手套泡沫并没有任何事情,在两个情况股价都达到天价的情况下,这两者到底有什么不同呢?

在2000年,科技公司的涨幅起源于乐观的心态与推测,说道科技会是世界的未来,每个人都会在每天的生活用到科技。这种说法也获得很多专业人士的认同,而几乎没有人对这个说法有任何异议,除了当时说科技股已经被高估了的巴菲特。*笔者有留意到最近自己说了太多关于巴菲特的事了,所以这次只会引用到一句话而已*。这也导致当时很多的新科技公司上市。自然的,这个泡沫在2001年的时候破了,而那些大型科技公司例如因特尔(INTEL)和甲骨文(ORACLE)也无一幸免,全数股价下滑。

在2020年4月,马来西亚手套股的股价开始上升,而在最高点的时候已经涨了几百,甚至几千巴仙。这导致很多的投资者担心泡沫的情况会再次发生在手套股身上。即使手套股有数次的回调,但也不足以说那是泡沫爆破的情况。这其中最严重的就是同年9月的回调,手套公司大多数从最高点都回调了将近50%。其他投资者都在问到底为什么这个手套泡沫会跟之前的互联网泡沫不同?答案很简单:盈利。

我们要记得当在2000年时候的科技股只是靠着乐观的推测而导致的股价上升,而并没有任何的盈利支撑。他们过后的盈利并不能够展示出市场给他们的期望,亦代表他们的股价是被高估了,而股价在2001年自然而然的跌回到比较合理的位置。另一方面,手套股是确实有需求的,而他们的盈利也确实在按季度进步,而且不是稍微的进步,而是夸张式的进步,以致它们最新的盈利能够比去年进步20倍。尽管他们现在的股价比较稳定没太多起伏了,可是手套还是一个不错的投资,毕竟他们的本益比大多低于20,而还保持着强劲的需求。

总结,每个股价的上升都需要被盈利支撑,如果一个公司的股价单纯的上升而盈利是没有进步的,那股价自然的就会回到合理位置。因此,我们身为投资者更应该注重公司的盈利,而只投资在可以带来盈利,并且持续成长的公司。

For more EXCLUSIVE content, visit: https://www.facebook.com/InvestingKnowEverything/

请关注笔者的脸书专页以获得独家资讯。

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/InvestingKnowEverything/2020-12-13-story-h1537536286.jsp

Click to comment
Back to Top
Back to Top