2018年圣诞好戏重演? 美股老手等待更佳抄底机会
(纽约22日讯)在圣诞节即将到来之际,“死硬派”抄底买家正在准备迎接市场更大的波动——以及更深、更诱人的下探。
在标普500指数创下9月以来最大三日跌幅后,股市周二适时反弹,但经验丰富的老手们正在观望。
“2018年平安夜再来一遍吧,那样我们就会买入!”Seven Investment Management LLP的高级投资策略师库马尔说。
“不确定这把真的算是探底。”
技术信号支持他的观点。根据Fundstrat Global Advisors,一些因素预示标普500指数将再次下跌,包括缺乏超卖条件以及昂贵成长股面临压力。
并且Fundstrat的分析显示,从一个短期市场阶段即将迎来的终点、一个名为Elliot波浪结构的技术周期的完成开始,可能会出现市场期待已久的圣诞老人上涨。
大起大落是圣诞节前走势的共同特征,因为这一时期流动性稀薄、波动更加剧烈。
在2018年因圣诞假期而交易日减少的一周,股市一开局就迎来了史上最糟圣诞节前夜,然后在12月26日创出单日大涨5%的纪录。
虽然库马尔今年未必期待这么大的行情,但他仍在等待更好的抄底机会。在恐慌性抛售的第一个迹象冒出时,他会立即行动。
Fundstrat的董事总经理兼技术策略主管马克·牛顿表示,所谓的圣诞老人上涨期将是今年的最后五个交易日和之后的三个交易日,并有望比12月头几周涨幅更大。
“看跌情绪与季节性利好因素相结合,似乎是在圣诞节前逢低买入的有效信号,”牛顿写道。
Robeco Institutional Asset Management跨资产策略主管科林·格拉汉最近一直在大举买入,通过罗素2000期货增加了小盘股风险敞口。但他周一没有抄底,而是选择等待更低点。
“我们认为这是把一些头寸放入我们认为表现会很好的投资组合中的机会,”他说。“我们正在寻找特别便宜且之前不热门的角落。”
http://www.enanyang.my/%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E8%B4%A2%E7%BB%8F/2018%E5%B9%B4%E5%9C%A3%E8%AF%9E%E5%A5%BD%E6%88%8F%E9%87%8D%E6%BC%94-%E7%BE%8E%E8%82%A1%E8%80%81%E6%89%8B%E7%AD%89%E5%BE%85%E6%9B%B4%E4%BD%B3%E6%8A%84%E5%BA%95%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A
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